Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

Icon so consistent

 

 

[colonel717]

RGEM

[colonel717]

Now let's not blow this lead... 

[MikeB_01]

Now let's not blow this lead... 

We love living on the edge


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[colonel717]

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Now let's not blow this lead... 

You talkin about the Pens or this storm? 

[MikeB_01]

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[southpark]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

What model is this? I don't recognize it.

[TimB]

Jesus, if that’s like 15 miles west of where it’s modeled…

[blackngoldrules]

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People in Morgantown are really all over the place right now. They have models giving them 18 inches and models giving them 5 inches. That damn WTOD gets to them first and screws them.

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[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Jesus, if that’s like 15 miles west of where it’s modeled…

then there will be a lot of crashing out here in this forum. 

[MikeB_01]

is the new sampled data going to be in the fresh GFS and Euro runs again tonight?

[Burghblizz]

6 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Isn’t that like a next gen rapid refresh model? I would think that would have a warm bias in this range. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

People in Morgantown are really all over the place right now. They have models giving them 18 inches and models giving them 5 inches. That damn WTOD gets to them first and screws them.

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And we know what happens. Does the WTOD ever just stop at the Mason-Dixon? (Rhetorical question)

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

Isn’t that like a next gen rapid refresh model? I would think that would have a warm bias in this range. 

I think its also important to remember that it is a prototype and definitely not operational. I would imagine it has some bias. However, as i looked a little closer to that run, the mix line doesnt advance much past the PA border. It must be the bad ratios that make their way in and cut off on some of the bigger numbers

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Isn’t that like a next gen rapid refresh model? I would think that would have a warm bias in this range. 

It is. I wouldn't take it serious. It still not good enough to replace NAM.

[colonel717]

12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

You talkin about the Pens or this storm? 

Yes...

[blackngoldrules]

And we know what happens. Does the WTOD ever just stop at the Mason-Dixon? (Rhetorical question)

Did you see my comment a bit earlier. Lol I unfortunately know all too well how it goes living in the south South Hills. Lol It sure likes to creep up here with storms like this. All we can do now is wait. Whatever happens happens.

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[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

It is. I wouldn't take it serious. It still not good enough to replace NAM.

I think it’s a potential replacement for HRRR/RAP and those tend to compound thermal errors outside of 18 hours. 

[MikeB_01]

here is the sounding for the NAM when the sleet makes it closest to SAGC. Can you imagine getting sleet at while it is 17° at the surface?! would be wild

[colonel717]

11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

is the new sampled data going to be in the fresh GFS and Euro runs again tonight?

Yes, GFS had more than NAM

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

here is the sounding for the NAM when the sleet makes it closest to SAGC. Can you imagine getting sleet at while it is 17° at the surface?! would be wild

Areas near NYC are showing 5 inches of sleet. 

[Mailman]

No mix on the GFS.

[colonel717]

GFS is big hit again. No wtod close. 

[Burghblizz]

GFS tellin yinz to chill 

[colonel717]

Gfs

 

[colonel717]

AIGFS no change

[southpark]

3 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Gfs

 

The consistency lately is something. But is it right or wrong?

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Gfs

 

Lock her in!!