Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[TimB]

NWS point and click is showing about 11”, for whatever that’s worth.

[MikeB_01]

12z GEFS members

[colonel717]

6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

12z GEFS members

 

You beat me to it was just posting those. Saved me from using my attachment limit...  Great consistency on them. I wish that site includes all 30 of the members but it gives a good indication.

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Still out of its range. But is a possible outcome. I think anything over 6 inches is a win. 

I’d be a little disappointed if it’s 6 or 7, although I know that’s a reasonable “good” outcome still. 

Mostly because we have been doing well with beefed up clippers and LES producing 4-6” type snows.

Definitely a different investment in this one!

[MikeB_01]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’d be a little disappointed if it’s 6 or 7, although I know that’s a reasonable “good” outcome still. 

Mostly because we have been doing well with beefed up clippers and LES producing 4-6” type snows.

Definitely a different investment in this one!

Same, I feel like i will be disappointed with anything under 9 at this point. I'm trying to keep my expectations in check, but im struggling with all these maps showing 12+

[TimB]

[colonel717]

Something to consider is will there be arctic front enhanced snows. Could help enhance totals; just for whom is to be determined. I'm sure that will help in the Laurels. 

[Burghblizz]

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

Not gonna lie - I went looking for the high end potential version, but didn’t see it yet. 

[colonel717]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

 

That is surprising to me that they'd put that out something with high totals out this early. Which I take to mean it could be much higher. Usually they go lower and adjust higher as we get closer.

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Not gonna lie - I went looking for the high end potential version, but didn’t see it yet. 

I actually thought that WAS the high end version when I first saw it.  

[Mailman]

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

[MikeB_01]

23 minutes ago, TimB said:

 

Interesting that they didn't wait for the Euro to come out. 

[Rd9108]

10-12 add ratios and you're cooking 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

AIEURO takes warm nose into Laurels.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

I would guess more than 15 inches or more may do it. 20 definitely would if we are going back to 1800's

Here are the numbers to beat. Note, xMacis shows 25.4" in 1950 but that's incorrect; the 27.4" given by the NWS is accurate. Legitimately, you could tack on the additional snows on the subsequent days and have up to 32" from that storm. The 1927 storm is shown as 19.4" for the dates given on xMacis - not sure which is correct.

Honorable mention to 1978 for its back-to-back foot plus snow storms.

Source: snowfalldata

[Mailman]

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro.  Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

34 minutes ago, TimB said:

Looking forward to those 90th percentile maps, if that's the current expectation.

[MikeB_01]

10 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro.  Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

 

 

not as bad on the 10:1 maps.

[Burghblizz]

Euro flirts a little more with the tongue than GFS, and doesn’t quite have that long duration that goes into Monday. But it gets close as far as output and or probably thumps a little harder along the way. 

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Euro flirts a little more with the tongue than GFS, and doesn’t quite have that long duration that goes into Monday. But it gets close as far as output and or probably thumps a little harder along the way. 

It is outa here so much quicker than others. GFS at hour 90 isn't close to done.

[MikeB_01]

12z EPS looks like the 00z. Same idea

[Rd9108]

What's crazy we are still like 48 hours out. Feels like tomorrow should be saturday. 

[Rd9108]

Not gonna lie as much as im enjoying the snow, its really nice out with the sun shining and close to 40 degrees. Feels refreshing. 

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Not gonna lie as much as im enjoying the snow, its really nice out with the sun shining and close to 40 degrees. Feels refreshing. 

40 is a bit exaggerated, no? All of the official temps are like 33-34 right now.

[Rd9108]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

40 is a bit exaggerated, no? All of the official temps are like 33-34 right now.

Most men exaggerate things so yes it maybe a bit. 

[Mailman]

[Mailman]

[colonel717]

Transcription (OCR)

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1512Z THU JAN 22 2026

MDS STATUS...
GOES-E MDS Sector 1 will be centered over 33.7N/104.1W from
23/0600Z to 24/1200Z in support of winter wx ops across portions
of the Southwest.

12Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP...
70133/OTZ - 10159..
70200/OME - 10159..
70308/SNP - 10159..
70326/AKN - 10159..
72274/TWC - 10159..
72363/AMA - 10159..
72582/LKN - 10159..
72597/MFR - 10159..
72776/TFX - 10159..
72785/OTX - 10159..
91165/LIH - 10159..
91285/ITO - 10159..

72202/MFL - No report..
72215/FFC - No report for NAM.. in for GFS.
72240/LCH - No report..
72251/CRP - No report..
72365/ABQ - No report..
72476/GJT - No report..
72493/OAK - No report..
72558/OAX - No report..
72562/LBF - No report..
72634/APX - No report for NAM.. in for GFS.
72645/GRB - No report..
72662/UNR - No report..
72797/UIL - No report..
74455/DVN - No report..
72393/VBG - Missing TTAA for NAM.. in for GFS.

Green/SDM/NCO/NCEP

---

What This Message Means (Plain English)

1. Who sent this

• Issued by a Senior Duty Meteorologist at NWS / NCEP Central Operations (College Park, MD).
• These are internal operational coordination messages, not public forecasts.

---

2. MDS Status (Satellite Operations)

• GOES‑East (GOES‑E) Mesoscale Domain Sector 1 is being repositioned.
• Center point: 33.7°N / 104.1°W
  • Roughly eastern New Mexico / west Texas
• Time window:
  • Start: 23 Jan 2026 at 0600Z
  • End: 24 Jan 2026 at 1200Z
• Purpose:
  • To support winter weather operations across parts of the Southwest.
• Meaning:
  • Enhanced satellite resolution and faster scans focused on an active winter weather area.

---

3. 12Z Updated RAOB Recap

RAOB = Radiosonde Observation (weather balloon data)
12Z = 12:00 UTC model initialization time

Stations Reporting Successfully

• Stations listed with 10159:
  • Indicates data received and processed normally.
  • Includes sites such as:
    • OTZ (Kotzebue)
    • OME (Nome)
    • AMA (Amarillo)
    • OTX (Spokane)
    • LIH / ITO (Hawaii)

---

Stations with Missing or Partial Data

• “No report”
  • No usable balloon data received at all.
• “No report for NAM.. in for GFS”
  • Data missed the NAM model cutoff
  • Still available for the GFS model
• “Missing TTAA”
  • TTAA = mandatory upper‑air pressure data codes
  • Missing critical sounding levels for NAM ingest

These data gaps can:

• Reduce short‑range model accuracy (especially NAM)
• Impact local forecast confidence during active weather

---

4. Why This Matters Operationally

• Balloon data and focused satellite coverage are critical during winter weather events
• Missing soundings can affect:
  • Snowfall totals
  • Ice forecasts
  • Placement of frontal boundaries
• That’s why this message highlights:
  • Where enhanced satellite support is active
  • Which stations did or did not report

[jwilson]

5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I made a similar point a few days ago, although you dove much more into the technical side.  This is why I would rather see total qpf for an event when determining if it's a "better" run vs Kuchera or even 10:1 if you are talking surface maps. 

That being said, looking at maps with all these high totals for our backyards is fun as long as you keep yourself grounded and as you say, don't end up disapointed. I never got some of the angst people had when someone posted a "clown map" Afterall, where else outside of a weather forum would something like that be understood or appreciated? 

Sorry if I repeated you, I must have missed that comment somehow.  

13 UTC NBM run did juice things up quite a bit.  Mean is up to 12.5" now.  Definitely a consistent trend the last couple days to keep increasing totals despite the one run from overnight (1 UTC) where things went back slightly.

I'm kind of hoping that settles because eventually, as you see from some of the individual runs, we start inching into "mix" territory, and we know that warm tongue is often underestimated by the models.  The chances of non-snow precip increased a lot (relative, 4% to 10%), as well.

To see where things could go wrong, you might compare these two shots at 66 hours.

Here we see the 12Z GFS with three distinct pieces of energy at 5H.  Northern vort over Montana, secondary in Utah, and primary southern vort over Mexico.  Hasn't quite phased yet.

This is the 12Z NAM at the same time.  We can see the distinct pieces of energy are interacting, instead.  Southern energy is pulling north and west as a natural condition of the phase with the northern energies.

We want the phase just not too early.  The 12Z Euro hedges slightly in between these two, but as far as I can tell, neither the 700 nor 850 temps get above freezing as modeled there.  Silver lining is the long-range NAM isn't all that good, but it is remains a possibility.

Not quite in the "comfortable" range yet.

[Burghblizz]

10 minutes ago, Mailman said:

This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, unless they really think ratios would be impacted. Most of the immediate area would still see no ice, but they would be scaling back accum everywhere. But I also have to think this is the heaviest QPF scenario.