Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[TimB]

NWS point and click is showing about 11”, for whatever that’s worth.

[MikeB_01]

12z GEFS members

[colonel717]

6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

12z GEFS members

 

You beat me to it was just posting those. Saved me from using my attachment limit...  Great consistency on them. I wish that site includes all 30 of the members but it gives a good indication.

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Still out of its range. But is a possible outcome. I think anything over 6 inches is a win. 

I’d be a little disappointed if it’s 6 or 7, although I know that’s a reasonable “good” outcome still. 

Mostly because we have been doing well with beefed up clippers and LES producing 4-6” type snows.

Definitely a different investment in this one!

[MikeB_01]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’d be a little disappointed if it’s 6 or 7, although I know that’s a reasonable “good” outcome still. 

Mostly because we have been doing well with beefed up clippers and LES producing 4-6” type snows.

Definitely a different investment in this one!

Same, I feel like i will be disappointed with anything under 9 at this point. I'm trying to keep my expectations in check, but im struggling with all these maps showing 12+

[TimB]

[colonel717]

Something to consider is will there be arctic front enhanced snows. Could help enhance totals; just for whom is to be determined. I'm sure that will help in the Laurels. 

[Burghblizz]

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

Not gonna lie - I went looking for the high end potential version, but didn’t see it yet. 

[colonel717]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

 

That is surprising to me that they'd put that out something with high totals out this early. Which I take to mean it could be much higher. Usually they go lower and adjust higher as we get closer.

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Not gonna lie - I went looking for the high end potential version, but didn’t see it yet. 

I actually thought that WAS the high end version when I first saw it.  

[Mailman]

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

[MikeB_01]

23 minutes ago, TimB said:

 

Interesting that they didn't wait for the Euro to come out. 

[Rd9108]

10-12 add ratios and you're cooking 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

AIEURO takes warm nose into Laurels.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, colonel717 said:

I would guess more than 15 inches or more may do it. 20 definitely would if we are going back to 1800's

Here are the numbers to beat. Note, xMacis shows 25.4" in 1950 but that's incorrect; the 27.4" given by the NWS is accurate. Legitimately, you could tack on the additional snows on the subsequent days and have up to 32" from that storm. The 1927 storm is shown as 19.4" for the dates given on xMacis - not sure which is correct.

Honorable mention to 1978 for its back-to-back foot plus snow storms.

Source: snowfalldata

[Mailman]

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro.  Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

34 minutes ago, TimB said:

Looking forward to those 90th percentile maps, if that's the current expectation.

[MikeB_01]

10 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro.  Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

 

 

not as bad on the 10:1 maps.

[Burghblizz]

Euro flirts a little more with the tongue than GFS, and doesn’t quite have that long duration that goes into Monday. But it gets close as far as output and or probably thumps a little harder along the way. 

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Euro flirts a little more with the tongue than GFS, and doesn’t quite have that long duration that goes into Monday. But it gets close as far as output and or probably thumps a little harder along the way. 

It is outa here so much quicker than others. GFS at hour 90 isn't close to done.

[MikeB_01]

12z EPS looks like the 00z. Same idea

[Rd9108]

What's crazy we are still like 48 hours out. Feels like tomorrow should be saturday.