Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[MikeB_01]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

As of today with today's guidance im saying 6 but if it looks like this friday and we get under 8 then that's a bust 

 

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

I said last night that I will go in with the mindset that I'll take a 6" snowfall and anything more is a bonus.

you guys are handling this well. I am fully locked in and seeing snow. Bring on 12+. 

[Burghblizz]

Cliff notes on  new NWS AFD….

50/50 shot at >10” in Pgh with higher probability south. 

[Burghblizz]

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I like that it gives close to the same output for most of us, despite a different path than GFS. GFS has 20”+ where Euro has that tongue signature. Would be sweating it more in through there. 

[Mailman]

23 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Cliff notes on  new NWS AFD….

50/50 shot at >10” in Pgh with higher probability south. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Potential increasing for an impactful snow/winter storm 
Saturday night through Sunday night- 

The latest trends in both operational and model ensembles
indicate a northward shift to impactful snow. A deepening trough
is progged to track SE from the northern Plains, as a southern
stream trough advances across the SW CONUS. These systems are
expected to phase across the Central CONUS on Sunday. At the
same time, a surface low is progged to develop across the Gulf
Coast region, with an inverted surface trough northward to the
Upper Ohio Valley region. Snow should begin to overspread the
region Saturday night as these systems approach. A coupled upper
jet structure should also enhance ascent Sunday, with
frontogenesis as far north as I-80.

Saturation throughout a deep dendritic growth zone should lead
to efficient snowfall on Sunday as well. Ensemble based
probabilities of at least a 6-8 inch snowfall have increased to
70-80 percent across much of the forecast area. Current
probabilities of a 10 inch or greater snowfall have increased to
50 percent as far north as Pittsburgh, with higher probabilities
to the south. Given the shift in some of the operational 
models, would like to see later data to initialize a potential 
Winter Storm Watch. Have held off on issuance for now in 
coordination with surrounding National Weather Service offices.
Will enhance the Hazardous Weather Outlook to indicate the 
increasing probability of an impactful snowfall. The heaviest 
snow should begin to taper off overnight Sunday night, through 
cold NW flow and the crossing parent upper trough could result 
in lingering snow into Monday.

With the track of the low to the south, the Upper Ohio 
Valley region will be in the cold sector so no potential for
mixed precip is expected. This incoming system has the
likelihood for widespread impacts from a significant snowfall.
Stay up to date on later updates and possible watches.

[MikeB_01]

EPS

[colonel717]

Saw this...

"Had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago."

[Burghblizz]

39 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Saw this...

"Had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago."

Who was the one having lunch? I think that was probably an intentional exaggeration to highlight he thought it still might be come NW

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

Cliff notes on  new NWS AFD….

50/50 shot at >10” in Pgh with higher probability south. 

Aggressive for them.  Hopefully a good sign.

[colonel717]

15 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Who was the one having lunch? I think that was probably an intentional exaggeration to highlight he thought it still might be come NW

[Burghblizz]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Of course it also depends on where that guy was. 

[MikeB_01]

Just now, Ahoff said:

Aggressive for them.  Hopefully a good sign.

It is aggressive. especially considering that we are 80+ hours from the first flakes falling

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Of course it also depends on where that guy was. 

Maryland area.

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

Maryland area.

id be worried if i was in maryland as well.

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Of course it also depends on where that guy was. 

[colonel717]

EPS Some of these are so close but I included them in the "fail". Anything with AGC not in all purple.

[jwilson]

It would quite the coup if one guy went against every model, almost every other meteorologist in the East and got it right.  

If it's just an exaggeration, then okay, fair enough.  I would guess over-amplification is more of a concern than suppression now, which Louis would seem to agree with, but we will know more tomorrow.

Phased systems are always delicate, particularly when there is no block.

[MikeB_01]

12 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

EPS Some of these are so close but I included them in the "fail". Anything with AGC not in all purple.

so 36/51 members are wins?

[colonel717]

WOW ICON!!!

[colonel717]

[TimB]

Looks great but that cutoff is dangerously close.

[Rd9108]

That's about as far north as you want this. Ill be curious to see if this trend continues. Southeast weenies already jumped ship, mid Atlantic are holding on for dear life. 

[MikeB_01]

12 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

WOW ICON!!!

no more north please.

[MikeB_01]

The icon run is about 250 north of where it was at 00z last night

[colonel717]

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the
aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences
in the details persist. The most notable question deals with the
degree of interaction between the southern stream and northern
stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of
the resultant phased trough. More/earlier interaction and a
stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging
and thus an overall storm track farther north. Latest guidance from
this morning and afternoon do continue to show this farther north
scenario compared to just a day ago. Confidence in this northward
shift has increased slightly today, given the 12z guidance coming
in close to prior 00z guidance. But there is still plenty of time
for things to shift again (whether further north or back south).
But we may be starting to see some better consolidation in the
forecast and less run to run swings. Despite this, the exact
details of these features is far from settled upon and will
continue to change for any one given location. Either way, it
should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a
widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting
significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These
details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow
and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and mass fields are
slightly north of continuity, and consistent with the latest
trends, and as a result, brings more major East Coast cities (NYC
and Boston) into play.

[colonel717]

Since the GFS sucks here is Google AI

[MikeB_01]

Since the GFS sucks here is Google AI

Seeing that I’m away from my computer and cannot access the models at the moment, when you say sucks, can you explain what you mean?


.

[Rd9108]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Seeing that I’m away from my computer and cannot access the models at the moment, when you say sucks, can you explain what you mean?


.

It doesnt phase the energy as quickly. I havent looked at it i just saw what others are saying.

[dj3]

GFS back south, south is still my biggest concern if it’s a sloppy phase.

[colonel717]

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Seeing that I’m away from my computer and cannot access the models at the moment, when you say sucks, can you explain what you mean?


.

It aligned with those fail of the eps that missed to the south.  4-5 inches for AGC

[Mailman]

Honestly, I'd have been more concerned if it showed primary going up 79.