Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

3K and FV3 show 1-3 for tomorrow. Cut back some.

[Gordo74]

My family has already called me alarmist for next weekend, so I’m trying to temper my expectations. Looks like it could be a multi-day event with double digit payoff. Can’t be upset about that, but can’t get too excited yet for we all have been too hyped this far out before.

[TheClimateChanger]

Not bad

 

[TheClimateChanger]

I’m going to need a front end loader for the drive if this is correct 

[blackngoldrules]

I’ll take it


.

That's the funniest model run I have ever seen. Lol

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[jwilson]

Pretty amazing run there from last night, but it's the GFS' unserious interpretation at 200+ hours.  If you show that under 48 hours with support, I'll get interested.

The long-term model depictions keep wanting to inflate the southern stream moisture involvement.  Thus far through winter we haven't really seen that, so it's hard to trust.

We'll have some rain transition to snow tonight with lingering bands, then another chance on Friday & Saturday for snow showers as an upper-level low passes overhead.

[colonel717]

Looking at the short term models, the favored areas for possibly more than an inch through tomorrow are North Hills thru Butler Co, someone could see 2 or maybe 3 inches. Snow should start mixing in around 8pm west to east.

[colonel717]

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Looking at the short term models, the favored areas for possibly more than an inch through tomorrow are North Hills thru Butler Co, someone could see 2 or maybe 3 inches. Snow should start mixing in around 8pm west to east.

Here’s what the NWS is forecasting. 1-2” mostly, but 2-5” along & north of I-80. They do highlight that area as having the potential to see as much as 6-8” in spots due to lake bands. They also suggest the possibility of a band in the west with up to 3-5 inches possible should that occur.

 

[Ahoff]

That GFS run last night is likely the biggest, wildest run we will ever see for this area.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Snow line on the move in eastern Ohio, with rain & snow mixed at CAK. Automated sensors at PHD and ZZV were reporting “UP” suggesting sleet or a rain/snow mix.

[colonel717]

Detroit and Toledo over performed, so maybe we can get an over performer here 

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Detroit and Toledo over performed, so maybe we can get an over performer here 

Yeah, they were getting clobbered with moderate to heavy snow earlier.

[TheClimateChanger]

Here's what it's going to look like if that GFS fantasy storm from last night comes true. 

 

[colonel717]

Ray Petelin just said 1-2 for most through tomorrow but there could be persistent bands that give localized much more. 

[colonel717]

Models were pretty good in showing first flakes around 8 which turned out right. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Can confirm snowing here. Coating on grassy surfaces

[colonel717]

Snowing pretty good. Grass fully covered.  Radar filling in to West.

[colonel717]

HRRR looks barren compared to radar. Heavy snow warning issued near Dayton and Columbus. 2-3 inch per hour rates. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Can sort of make out that one heavier band the NWS was concerned about possibly making it into eastern Ohio and perhaps parts of Washington County. Nothing too heavy in our immediate area otherwise. Lake enhancement certainly helping out around Cleveland and points east of there.