Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS

Attention then turns toward the next storm system due to arrive
in our region this weekend. Ensemble model guidance remains in
agreement that an upper-level wave currently halfway between the
states of Hawaii and Washington will come ashore and propagate
eastward across the contiguous US on Friday and into the
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the wave approaches, it
may attempt to phase with subtle preceding shortwaves emanating
from the remnants of the subtropical jet along the US/Mexico
border and a polar wave dropping south out of Canada. The degree
of interaction with any of these waves will ultimately
influence the eventual evolution of the storm system, which is
leading to the usual spread of ensemble outcomes typical for a
system 4 days out.

Generally speaking, the expectation is for a region of warm-
air advection snow to develop across the region early Saturday
morning and then to transition to "cold conveyer belt"
frontogenesis-driven snow Saturday into Saturday night.
Depending on the exact evolution and strength of the system, a
warm nose may surge into parts of the area leading to a
transition from snow to rain at some point on Saturday.
Regardless, the ensemble signal, particularly among the EPS
suite, remains strong for our general region to experience
impactful snow on Saturday.

[migratingwx]

18Z GFS has slightly higher amounts for Chicagoland. 

18z vs 12z below.

[ChiTownSnow]

with that lead wave,  what are we talking on ratio's ? 

 

[Radtechwxman]

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

[ChiTownSnow]

8 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.