December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February.

[jaxjagman]

No words needed where the MJO is today

[jaxjagman]

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. 

Gawd:

 

And this later in the run especially:

 

 

The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is  trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so.

 

Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: 

Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. 

I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided.

I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above.

Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro/CMC vs GFS in regards to cold and storminess.  Could be a rough ride for the GFS.

[jaxjagman]

IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling

[jaxjagman]

Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec

29 Nov 2025	1011.21	1008.95	-3.95	14.40	8.89
28 Nov 2025	1011.09	1008.70	-3.12	14.81	8.88
27 Nov 2025	1011.74	1008.55	1.97	15.52	9.00
26 Nov 2025	1012.11	1006.05	20.23	16.24	9.20
25 Nov 2025	1009.58	1005.50	7.63	16.34	9.25
24 Nov 2025	1007.56	1004.90	-1.40	17.10	9.38
23 Nov 2025	1009.73	1000.85	38.17	17.97	9.60
22 Nov 2025	1011.59	1003.75	31.56	17.51	9.41

[jaxjagman]

Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sleet here this evening. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sleet here this evening. 

Not surprising. Evaporational cooling. Model's are not good with it.

[John1122]

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sleet here this evening. 

Currently have a sleet/snow/graupel mix here as well.

[brewman22001]

Getting sleet here in the Rutledge Pike area as well


.

[Jed33]

Now seeing some sleet here as well.

[John1122]

It was heavy sleet for about 15 minutes then it just stopped doing anything. 

[John1122]

The Euro is trying to slip in some heavy frozen precip along the back side of the system on Tuesday. 

[Kentucky]

If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky 

[Kentucky]

GEFS changes

[John1122]

20 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky 

 

I feel you!

[Daniel Boone]

26 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky 

Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies.

[Carvers Gap]

I think the MJO is correcting into colder phases with maybe a loop back into 7.  The Euro/EPS/EMON has been decent of late in predicting the next plot.   I suspect models and ensembles will continue to correct to a colder look. 

And man, do you all remember ColdRain on the old SE forum.  This was his type of day IMBY.  RealFeels at 40F w/ light drizzle falling.  Scuzzy weather.  I like it, but it isn't for everyone.

[Carvers Gap]

Winter Weather Advisories posted for western areas of the forum, specifically NW TN, and eastern Arkansas.

[Carvers Gap]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-
054-055-010600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0003.251202T0000Z-251202T1200Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St.
Francis-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-
Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison-
Henderson-Decatur-
Including the cities of Wynne, Corning, Camden, Forrest City,
Milan, Blytheville, Piggott, West Memphis, Huntingdon, Lexington,
Humboldt, Brownsville, Caruthersville, Covington, Decaturville,
Paris, Paragould, Union City, Tiptonville, Jackson, Harrisburg,
Martin, Parsons, Jonesboro, Ripley TN, Dyersburg, Alamo, Dresden,
and Kennett
1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations less than one inch and ice accumulations less than
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and West
  Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking through modeling and catching up some(yes, I was at that abomination of a ball game yesterday...but still enjoyed being with my family!), there are some really close calls in the medium range.  IF modeling is incorrect about the strength of the cold incoming, areas north of I40 could see some frozen precip.  This is something that will have to monitored with each event.  Seems like we have a Gulf system in that window where systems are lost.  Let's see if it reappears.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next:

 

 

It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO. 

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next:

 

 

It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO. 

More Ninoish.

[Carvers Gap]

I will take either background state as long as it is weak - Nino or Nina.  It seems like the last few winters have had a dominant ENSO state, but also strong elements of the opposite background state.  I think that is probably due there not being a strong difference between the colder Nina water and the warmer water around it -> What is the word for that?  

In other words, the lack of sharp differences creates kind of a muted ENSO effect.  Is the IO still slated to be quiet?

[John1122]

Now the GFS is showing what the Euro did yesterday, a change to heavy snow by Tuesday morning from the Plateau and west along the Tn/Ky border counties. Cranks out 2 inches imby. The HRRR is more vertical with it's bands of snow and further west, deep into Western areas of the forum.

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

Now the GFS is showing what the Euro did yesterday, a change to heavy snow by Tuesday morning from the Plateau and west along the Tn/Ky border counties. Cranks out 2 inches imby. The HRRR is more vertical with it's bands of snow and further west, deep into Western areas of the forum.

Some decent trends for light snow in your back yard at 12z.

[Carvers Gap]

Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area.  Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley.  Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north.  

[Carvers Gap]

The biggest things is getting into climatology that supports snow in the valleys.  It is well within precedent to snow, but the likelihood is just lower until we hit mid-December.  This is a good pattern, but just a bit too early in the season as the cold just isn't as deep.