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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread


John1122
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One last comment about the 12z suite…when looking at the ensembles, be sure to look at the number of solutions depicting a certain solution.  The warmer options are skewing the mean drastically when the median would look quite different.  This recently occurred with early December. 

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Snow for Hanukkah. Severe for Christmas. Checks out!

Getting off my torch horse.. The following teleconnections reveal something like the chart below Days 16-20 which is Christmas and the following weekend. Maybe delay to New Year. Maybe the other way, shallow cold airmass brings a colder verification in Tennessee. Who knows?

Cold air supply in Canada
MJO tracking back through 7-8 colder phases
WPO ride still rex blocking North Pac, if we can boot any Alaska trough
Strato is still active / warm

Do not share for any commercial purposes. This was posted yesterday afternoon, so I feel like it's OK to share just here.


image.png.25e14e6d66661c9ec587ba00c34594b8.png

As usual, got some decent Year's snow wise but some not so good as well. One great one (2011) One terrible (1990) . 

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