December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z RGEM is threatening to bring frozen precip into the forum area around Dec 5th.  Sneaky system...a little bit of ZR can wreck total havoc.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z ICON is flirting with it as well for NE TN/SW VA.  Time of day is huge.  If that comes in over night, it could be a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through.  Rain/snow mix for the valley.  Nice look.

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through.  Rain/snow mix for the valley.  Nice look.

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

The GFS is a an outlier at this point but has come around some today.  It was an extreme outlier yesterday.  I mean eventually it will be right when the MJO finally rotates around.   A broke clock…

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

Yeah, there's some talk of it being a complete SSWE. PV is weak so if there is one it may very split the PV this time.

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

Thanks for the heads up.  I prob should look at the strat more.  Generally, I just wanted it jostled and not spinning in a tight spiral.  That would make sense given that this has occurred during recent Nina episodes.  That would set the stage or cold by mid January.  This could be a crazy winter.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You know, if we ever wanted an Aleutian trough, we have one, at least for now. Absolutely massive trough, maybe just a bit too far west. 

[Carvers Gap]

Weather models amaze me.  What a front.  These are the real feel and anomaly maps from the 18z GFS at 360.  In no way shape or form am I saying this going to come to pass on this exact day.  However, I do think an extreme front is on the table as is record heat by mid month.  We could see both...I hope not on the same day.  But we could see some extremes.

 

[Carvers Gap]

And yes, that is an anafront - textbook.

[Carvers Gap]

You want wild?  The 18z AIFS has mid 60s all they way into Iowa at the same hour as above.  Models are ALL OVER THE PLACE this evening.  That is a pretty good sign that cold is coming into the Lower 48.   Temps differences are almost 70 degrees in some places between the 18z GFS and AIFS.  And at 360, that isn't completely unexpected, but it is wild to look at.  I think we have cold through mid month, and then paths diverge.  I do think we "could" see some strong cold fronts, maybe sever weather, and possible frozen events.