December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z RGEM is threatening to bring frozen precip into the forum area around Dec 5th.  Sneaky system...a little bit of ZR can wreck total havoc.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z ICON is flirting with it as well for NE TN/SW VA.  Time of day is huge.  If that comes in over night, it could be a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through.  Rain/snow mix for the valley.  Nice look.

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through.  Rain/snow mix for the valley.  Nice look.

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

The GFS is a an outlier at this point but has come around some today.  It was an extreme outlier yesterday.  I mean eventually it will be right when the MJO finally rotates around.   A broke clock…

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

Yeah, there's some talk of it being a complete SSWE. PV is weak so if there is one it may very split the PV this time.

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I'm sure you folks are aware of another SSW Event unfolding for mid month?

Thanks for the heads up.  I prob should look at the strat more.  Generally, I just wanted it jostled and not spinning in a tight spiral.  That would make sense given that this has occurred during recent Nina episodes.  That would set the stage or cold by mid January.  This could be a crazy winter.