John1122 Posted Saturday at 05:28 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:28 AM Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:24 PM No words needed where the MJO is today 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:30 PM Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Saturday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:41 PM To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. Gawd: And this later in the run especially: The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so. Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided. I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above. Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM 12z Euro/CMC vs GFS in regards to cold and storminess. Could be a rough ride for the GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec 29 Nov 2025 1011.21 1008.95 -3.95 14.40 8.89 28 Nov 2025 1011.09 1008.70 -3.12 14.81 8.88 27 Nov 2025 1011.74 1008.55 1.97 15.52 9.00 26 Nov 2025 1012.11 1006.05 20.23 16.24 9.20 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:29 PM Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM Sleet here this evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sleet here this evening. Not surprising. Evaporational cooling. Model's are not good with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM 20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sleet here this evening. Currently have a sleet/snow/graupel mix here as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewman22001 Posted yesterday at 02:19 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:19 AM Getting sleet here in the Rutledge Pike area as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted yesterday at 03:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 AM Now seeing some sleet here as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM It was heavy sleet for about 15 minutes then it just stopped doing anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:58 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:58 AM The Euro is trying to slip in some heavy frozen precip along the back side of the system on Tuesday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago GEFS changes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Kentucky said: If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky I feel you! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Kentucky said: If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I think the MJO is correcting into colder phases with maybe a loop back into 7. The Euro/EPS/EMON has been decent of late in predicting the next plot. I suspect models and ensembles will continue to correct to a colder look. And man, do you all remember ColdRain on the old SE forum. This was his type of day IMBY. RealFeels at 40F w/ light drizzle falling. Scuzzy weather. I like it, but it isn't for everyone. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Winter Weather Advisories posted for western areas of the forum, specifically NW TN, and eastern Arkansas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052- 054-055-010600- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0003.251202T0000Z-251202T1200Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson- Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison- Henderson-Decatur- Including the cities of Wynne, Corning, Camden, Forrest City, Milan, Blytheville, Piggott, West Memphis, Huntingdon, Lexington, Humboldt, Brownsville, Caruthersville, Covington, Decaturville, Paris, Paragould, Union City, Tiptonville, Jackson, Harrisburg, Martin, Parsons, Jonesboro, Ripley TN, Dyersburg, Alamo, Dresden, and Kennett 1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations less than one inch and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just looking through modeling and catching up some(yes, I was at that abomination of a ball game yesterday...but still enjoyed being with my family!), there are some really close calls in the medium range. IF modeling is incorrect about the strength of the cold incoming, areas north of I40 could see some frozen precip. This is something that will have to monitored with each event. Seems like we have a Gulf system in that window where systems are lost. Let's see if it reappears. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next: It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next: It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO. More Ninoish. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago I will take either background state as long as it is weak - Nino or Nina. It seems like the last few winters have had a dominant ENSO state, but also strong elements of the opposite background state. I think that is probably due there not being a strong difference between the colder Nina water and the warmer water around it -> What is the word for that? In other words, the lack of sharp differences creates kind of a muted ENSO effect. Is the IO still slated to be quiet? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago Now the GFS is showing what the Euro did yesterday, a change to heavy snow by Tuesday morning from the Plateau and west along the Tn/Ky border counties. Cranks out 2 inches imby. The HRRR is more vertical with it's bands of snow and further west, deep into Western areas of the forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 9 hours ago, John1122 said: Now the GFS is showing what the Euro did yesterday, a change to heavy snow by Tuesday morning from the Plateau and west along the Tn/Ky border counties. Cranks out 2 inches imby. The HRRR is more vertical with it's bands of snow and further west, deep into Western areas of the forum. Some decent trends for light snow in your back yard at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area. Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley. Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago The biggest things is getting into climatology that supports snow in the valleys. It is well within precedent to snow, but the likelihood is just lower until we hit mid-December. This is a good pattern, but just a bit too early in the season as the cold just isn't as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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