John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:28 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:28 AM Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 12:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 PM No words needed where the MJO is today 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted yesterday at 12:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:41 PM To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. Gawd: And this later in the run especially: The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so. Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided. I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above. Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 07:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:13 PM 12z Euro/CMC vs GFS in regards to cold and storminess. Could be a rough ride for the GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 07:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:48 PM IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec 29 Nov 2025 1011.21 1008.95 -3.95 14.40 8.89 28 Nov 2025 1011.09 1008.70 -3.12 14.81 8.88 27 Nov 2025 1011.74 1008.55 1.97 15.52 9.00 26 Nov 2025 1012.11 1006.05 20.23 16.24 9.20 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Sleet here this evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sleet here this evening. Not surprising. Evaporational cooling. Model's are not good with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sleet here this evening. Currently have a sleet/snow/graupel mix here as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewman22001 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Getting sleet here in the Rutledge Pike area as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Now seeing some sleet here as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago It was heavy sleet for about 15 minutes then it just stopped doing anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago The Euro is trying to slip in some heavy frozen precip along the back side of the system on Tuesday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GEFS changes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 53 minutes ago Author Share Posted 53 minutes ago 20 minutes ago, Kentucky said: If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky I feel you! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 26 minutes ago, Kentucky said: If you absolutely hate snow and enjoy watching it snow in the rest of the state then move to SE Kentucky Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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