December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February.

[jaxjagman]

No words needed where the MJO is today

[jaxjagman]

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. 

Gawd:

 

And this later in the run especially:

 

 

The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is  trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so.

 

Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: 

Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. 

I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided.

I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above.

Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro/CMC vs GFS in regards to cold and storminess.  Could be a rough ride for the GFS.

[jaxjagman]

IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling

[jaxjagman]

Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec

29 Nov 2025	1011.21	1008.95	-3.95	14.40	8.89
28 Nov 2025	1011.09	1008.70	-3.12	14.81	8.88
27 Nov 2025	1011.74	1008.55	1.97	15.52	9.00
26 Nov 2025	1012.11	1006.05	20.23	16.24	9.20
25 Nov 2025	1009.58	1005.50	7.63	16.34	9.25
24 Nov 2025	1007.56	1004.90	-1.40	17.10	9.38
23 Nov 2025	1009.73	1000.85	38.17	17.97	9.60
22 Nov 2025	1011.59	1003.75	31.56	17.51	9.41

[jaxjagman]

Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now