December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February.

[jaxjagman]

No words needed where the MJO is today

[jaxjagman]

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. 

Gawd:

 

And this later in the run especially:

 

 

The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is  trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so.

 

Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: 

Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. 

I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided.

I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above.

Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.