finnster Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 hours ago, Chinook said: 1976-1977 was of course as you mentioned extremely dry for the western USA, and also quite cold and snowy for the Northeast/Great Lakes. This may have been a time when great long-range weather forecaster Namias started noticing the link between El Nino, Pacific SST anomalies, and huge changes in the USA's weather systems. I think this paper says that no low pressure areas tracked through the ridge (at all) around the West Coast. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/106/3/1520-0493_1978_106_0279_mcotna_2_0_co_2.xml Thanks Chinook for the link to the paper. As I recall it took some time to break out of that pattern that became entrenched in 1976-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I had a nice surprise burst of snow move thru this afternoon. It was almost like a squall but It only lasted 10 minutes, with a temp in the mid 30’s, and my gauge only logged .02” of liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 All models are now pretty much in agreement for a 2-4" event for the metro area Thursday afternoon and night. With higher amounts possible further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 With last weekend's rain here on the CA Central Coast, most major climo sites have surpassed their FY norms for the "water year." Anything we get from this point will be gravy, from that perspective. Looks a dry period upcoming - we need it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, bch2014 said: With last weekend's rain here on the CA Central Coast, most major climo sites have surpassed their FY norms for the "water year." Anything we get from this point will be gravy, from that perspective. Looks a dry period upcoming - we need it here. 10"-20" in 14 days is a lot. It's above the annual rainfall of Colorado every state other than California and North Dakota has drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 hours ago, tacoman25 said: All models are now pretty much in agreement for a 2-4" event for the metro area Thursday afternoon and night. With higher amounts possible further south. I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 4 hours ago, smokeybandit said: I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out. Have to agree... hopefully we're wrong, but experience shows... The Denver Post this AM has some predictions that had me laughing out loud, along the lines of "Tonight, there's a 100% chance of darkness." Copied/pasted: 1 to 11 inches in Aurora, Golden, Lakewood and Littleton 1 to 12 inches in Centennial 1 to 13 inches in Parker and Castle Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 hours ago, smokeybandit said: I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out. Eh, last couple snow events ended up about where the models were showing 24 hours out. At least here. In early December I actually got an inch or two more than was expected. Most are still showing 1-4" for Denver metro as of now, so I think that's a pretty good bet. Main limiting factor looks to be heaviest precip occurring during the middle of the day with peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I've got a WSW for 5-10" I see nothing on any model that says that'd come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 I'm guessing 18z models and things I don't have access to upped the moisture a bit. Just looked at the NWS updated forecast, and we're forecast to get 0.39" WE and about 4.5 inches of snow, and we are a little too far north/too low to be in the watch area. No updated discussion- I've noticed that AFDs are not updated as often as they used to be, guessing staffing is the issue. So we'll see. In any case, I expect the Post's forecast of 1-12 inches will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: I've got a WSW for 5-10" I see nothing on any model that says that'd come close to verifying. Latest GFS goes nuts. NAM trended wetter, too. Have to think this is overdone, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 no watches/advisories for most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 0z HRRR has basically nothing falling in the watch area. 0Z NAM lost a lot of moisture, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: 0z HRRR has basically nothing falling in the watch area. 0Z NAM lost a lot of moisture, too. I think HRRR only goes through 18 hours ( so 21Z, 2 PM MT) and NAM is pretty consistent wih its 12z run (18z was prob an outlier) - looking at the 00z ones I could find, not much has changed except the GFS is still heavier than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 0z Euro looks basically the same as 12z. Looks like there will be snow tomorrow for a few hours, then a lull, then it picks up again in the evening for a few hours. 2-4" for Denver metro south of 70 still appears on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6z HRRR has flurries. 6z GFS has a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z models are now wetter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Pretty soon we’ll be driving ourselves crazy looking at models that predict yesterdays snowstorm that never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just impossible to put any faith in the models anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yeah, this one's looking like a bust. Got a couple brief snow showers this am that amounted to about 1/4", and now it's looking like the second part of the system that was supposed to deliver the heavier stuff overnight is drifting more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, tacoman25 said: Yeah, this one's looking like a bust. Got a couple brief snow showers this am that amounted to about 1/4", and now it's looking like the second part of the system that was supposed to deliver the heavier stuff overnight is drifting more to the south. That said, I think the south metro like Castle Rock and Parker may do ok tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Central/west Denver and from south of there did OK. I probably mustered together 2", most of that coming last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Lol, ended up with almost 4" here. On the high end of what most models showed 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 2.4” here, almost all 1-6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 At most - 1 inch up here, and all of that came in the morning with the first round. As expected, we totally whiffed on round 2 in central Larimer county. Glad to see that it performed for some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 snapshot of some (not all) storm reports in a couple hour time frame. 10-12" at Colorado Springs (5-10" in Colorado Springs on CoCoRAHS as of this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Yeah congrats The Springs. At least someone didn't bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 48 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Yeah congrats The Springs. At least someone didn't bust hard. I mean...most of Denver metro was expected to get 1-4" and that happened? With a few places in SW metro getting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 20 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: I mean...most of Denver metro was expected to get 1-4" and that happened? With a few places in SW metro getting more. It was a very typical Dec/Jan type snowfall. Events in these months are much more typically nickels, sometimes dimes, until late Feb thru April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, ValpoVike said: It was a very typical Dec/Jan type snowfall. Events in these months are much more typically nickels, sometimes dimes, until late Feb thru April. True, but not with temps in the 60s/70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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