Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

There is a firehouse set up now coming out of MD directly into western Lanco - I wouldn't be surprised if some of us get close to 3" by noon. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[Jns2183]

The winds don't seem to pick up till late morning Friday. It will be interesting how windy we get and how the power lines hold up

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[Jns2183]

At 2.02"

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[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

At 2.02"

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Right behind you at 1.86" and adding up very quickly. It is pouring. 

[canderson]

Just passed 2”. No thunder that I’ve heard here. 

[mahantango#1]

1.40 here.

[canderson]

It is absolutely pouring rain now - heaviest of the event except maybe like 3 am when I was dreaming of brisket and Shiner Bock. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Whoa:

The stability comes into play in another way,
too. Model soundings yield very high shear in the lowest 3kft.
There could be supercell structures form as the eastern
edge/side of the dry slot moves across the Lower Susq. With low
LCLs (very moist environment), there is a chc for an isolated
tornado or two. Temps should get into the 60s in the SE as the
sun should break through at times, esp late in the day in the
dry slot. That would help CAPE climb closer to 1000J. The SPC
MRGL risk is painted into our SErn 6-8 counties for this very
reason. If we can get upright convection (even shallow), there
is a risk for svr gusts and even tornadoes. As the afternoon
continues, the favorable convergence of all the svr params will
be waning/breaking up.

[Jns2183]

Whoa:

The stability comes into play in another way,too. Model soundings yield very high shear in the lowest 3kft.There could be supercell structures form as the easternedge/side of the dry slot moves across the Lower Susq. With lowLCLs (very moist environment), there is a chc for an isolatedtornado or two. Temps should get into the 60s in the SE as thesun should break through at times, esp late in the day in thedry slot. That would help CAPE climb closer to 1000J. The SPCMRGL risk is painted into our SErn 6-8 counties for this veryreason. If we can get upright convection (even shallow), thereis a risk for svr gusts and even tornadoes. As the afternooncontinues, the favorable convergence of all the svr params willbe waning/breaking up.

This afternoon?

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[mahantango#1]

[Jns2183]

I am past 5.50" for the month. My grass is green again. Happy I cut it yesterday.

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[Jns2183]

The one next week should be interesting

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[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Whoa:

The stability comes into play in another way,
too. Model soundings yield very high shear in the lowest 3kft.
There could be supercell structures form as the eastern
edge/side of the dry slot moves across the Lower Susq. With low
LCLs (very moist environment), there is a chc for an isolated
tornado or two. Temps should get into the 60s in the SE as the
sun should break through at times, esp late in the day in the
dry slot. That would help CAPE climb closer to 1000J. The SPC
MRGL risk is painted into our SErn 6-8 counties for this very
reason. If we can get upright convection (even shallow), there
is a risk for svr gusts and even tornadoes. As the afternoon
continues, the favorable convergence of all the svr params will
be waning/breaking up.

SPC did add us to marginal 

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

The one next week should be interesting

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Yes it should be interesting.  Should be better in terms of drought relief.

[Jns2183]

Yes it should be interesting.  Should be better in terms of drought relief.

There are also some people in yellow that are +10"-15" on the year. I understand why, I just find it funny.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There are also some people in yellow that are +10"-15" on the year. I understand why, I just find it funny.

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You're looking at him.  I'm at ~48" for the year with two full months to go. 

[Jns2183]

2.85"

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[canderson]

Sun trying to break through.  Looks like the next slug of rain will miss HBG proper so might winding down rain-wise here. 

[Jns2183]

You're looking at him.  I'm at ~48" for the year with two full months to go. 

At kmdt the previous 25 years yearly average is 45", mostly due to our huge stretch of insane yearly totals in the 2010's. Before that the previous 25 years average was 41". Regardless we average about 6" in November/December so after tomorrow average YTD should be 35'-39". I'm at 34" for the year thanks to this beast. Lowest I saw in Cumberland was 27".

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[Jns2183]

Sun trying to break through.  Looks like the next slug of rain will miss HBG proper so might winding down rain-wise here. 

Just in time for the sun to destabilize us some for the grand finale in a few hours

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[mahantango#1]

Just think if all this liquid would have been snow. And the ground and air temperatures were just below freezing. Maybe it's a preview of things to come in a month or two.

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Just think if all this liquid would have been snow. And the ground and air temperatures were just below freezing. Maybe it's a preview of things to come in a month or two.

Probably 35°F and rain lol

[canderson]

Sun officially out here. Looks like I’ll end this event with right at 2.5” rain. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2.41" of rain has fallen here. Solid.