Hurricane Imelda

[NorthHillsWx]

With the storm now moving in a more favorable direction considering the shear vector we are starting to see signs of strengthening this morning. Convection is firing over the center and starting to wrap into the dry slot the storm ingested last night. Despite the dry air, pressure falls have continued and we are now seeing convection become more organized as well. This system is well on its way to hurricane intensity 

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the storm now moving in a more favorable direction considering the shear vector we are starting to see signs of strengthening this morning. Convection is firing over the center and starting to wrap into the dry slot the storm ingested last night. Despite the dry air, pressure falls have continued and we are now seeing convection become more organized as well. This system is well on its way to hurricane intensity 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES 

@WxWatcher007

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES 

@WxWatcher007

I guess I posted about 15 minutes too early 

[NorthHillsWx]

Up to 75 knots. Visible reveals a possible eye feature forming 

[WxWatcher007]

Nothing really impressive about Imelda on recon tonight. I think the already small opening for Imelda to turn major has closed. 

The interaction between these two will be a sight to behold though the next few days. 

[Coach McGuirk]

18 hours ago, baldereagle said:

Because danger to and destruction of others’ property and lives gives you a thrill. Got it, and “whining like a child” when it stays ots. Sheesh. Barry GBP would be proud of you.

Right, Barry? Barry?

No, I just like hurricanes. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's out to sea and the Euro was wrong. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Imelda has become significantly better defined overnight with a large eye and more cohesive convection. Strengthens appears imminent. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Up to 90mph at latest advisory 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nothing really impressive about Imelda on recon tonight. I think the already small opening for Imelda to turn major has closed. 

The interaction between these two will be a sight to behold though the next few days. 

I disagree, models have hinted for days it will strengthen somewhat due to the interaction with Humberto and peak near Bermuda. It looks as healthy as it has its entire life this morning. Not saying it’s likely but this storm has not peaked yet and the window for cat 3 is still open

[yotaman]

7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's out to sea and the Euro was wrong. 

All models were wrong at one point. Most had them either hitting the coast and moving inland or stalling right at the coast.

[NorthHillsWx]

Pressure falls continuing (looks possibly like sub 970) and winds starting to catch up. FL winds to 100kts this last pass and SFMR winds coming up at well. Bermuda is in for a serious blow. HWRF brings this to a major right over the island. I think cat 2 is most likely but the ceiling remains low end cat 3

[eyewall]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Pressure falls continuing (looks possibly like sub 970) and winds starting to catch up. FL winds to 100kts this last pass and SFMR winds coming up at well. Bermuda is in for a serious blow. HWRF brings this to a major right over the island. I think cat 2 is most likely but the ceiling remains low end cat 3

Yeah in this case it will make quite a difference if the center passes north or south of them. North of them and it is with the motion of the storm.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah in this case it will make quite a difference if the center passes north or south of them. North of them and it is with the motion of the storm.

Seems like over them or just south of them is most likely at this point.  Will be interesting to watch and see how this unfolds.  

[NorthHillsWx]

The southern side is much stronger right now and would be in line with the forward motion but models keep building a strong sting jet over the NW quad at some point near or over the island partly due to interaction with Humberto. Not a totally tropical evolution but one to watch to boost winds at a bad time for Bermuda.

Imelda is trying to look pretty at the moment. Don’t think it holds this classic eye look for long though but it is definitely strengthening right now 

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1973385028051636664?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[NorthHillsWx]

Pressure dropped 3 mbs between passes, now down to 967

[NorthHillsWx]

Cat 2, 966 mb at 11 am

[GaWx]

On 9/24/2025 at 5:46 PM, GaWx said:

Example:

18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL:

 

Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

 

On 9/25/2025 at 12:21 AM, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: TD forms Mon night NW Bahamas, initially then drifts slowly NW followed by a stall and dissipation as the much stronger Humberto only ~500 miles east takes over:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 25.0N 77.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2025 108 25.9N 78.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.09.2025 120 26.1N 78.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 30.09.2025 132 26.1N 78.1W 1007 20
0000UTC 01.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

On 9/25/2025 at 1:26 PM, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: At hour 120, 993 mb Humberto, which is within only 500 miles ENE of 1000 mb 94L, causes 94L (which had been moving mainly NNW) to then get sucked toward it as 94L then suddenly turns SSE, then ESE, and then ENE to well OTS (near 27N, 72W)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 21.1N 76.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 60 22.2N 76.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 72 23.5N 76.9W 1006 32
0000UTC 29.09.2025 84 24.1N 77.4W 1004 33
1200UTC 29.09.2025 96 25.9N 78.3W 1004 39
0000UTC 30.09.2025 108 25.8N 77.8W 1002 38
1200UTC 30.09.2025 120 26.4N 78.1W 1000 37
0000UTC 01.10.2025 132 25.4N 77.6W 999 37
1200UTC 01.10.2025 144 25.0N 76.5W 997 43
0000UTC 02.10.2025 156 25.4N 74.8W 995 46
1200UTC 02.10.2025 168 26.9N 72.2W 991 47

——————
So far at 12Z for major operationals

-GFS hits just S of Georgetown, SC, Mon PM (9/29) as a H (with strong support from GEFS, it’s most ominous run by far yet for SE US)
-Icon, UKMET, CMC thanks to Fujiwhara go safely OTS from SE US
-Euro next
-JMA only out to 72 so far (can’t tell yet): edit now out to 192: thanks to Fujiwara, no US landfall as the 2 storms combine

 

On 9/26/2025 at 1:02 PM, GaWx said:

Other 12Z:

Icon goes OTS again
 

JMA hints at OTS but not sure since only to 72

UKMET goes OTS again like the Icon although it goes further NW than prior runs before going OTS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 23.3N 76.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2025 48 24.2N 76.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 29.09.2025 60 25.2N 77.4W 1004 34
1200UTC 29.09.2025 72 26.7N 77.8W 1003 38
0000UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.2N 77.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 30.09.2025 96 28.9N 78.5W 996 42
0000UTC 01.10.2025 108 28.7N 77.8W 994 40
1200UTC 01.10.2025 120 28.5N 76.6W 992 38
0000UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.7N 74.3W 991 46
1200UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.9N 72.2W 991 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 156 28.7N 69.6W 992 63
1200UTC 03.10.2025 168 28.6N 68.4W 995 52

 

 

 

 

On 9/27/2025 at 12:10 AM, GaWx said:

0Z:

Icon stays OTS as has been case every run

GFS stays OTS 2nd run in a row

JMA goes out only 72 but implies it would again get pulled into Humberto and stay OTS

UKMET stays OTS as (like the Icon) has been the case every run:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N  77.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   36  23.5N  77.3W     1004            38
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   48  25.0N  77.5W     1002            38
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   60  26.5N  78.0W     1001            38
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   72  28.1N  78.3W      998            43
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   84  28.3N  78.5W      995            42
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   96  27.6N  76.9W      993            38
    1200UTC 01.10.2025  108  27.4N  74.6W      991            45
    0000UTC 02.10.2025  120  27.8N  71.6W      989            45
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  132  28.3N  68.0W      987            48
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  144  28.8N  63.5W      989            66
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  156  29.8N  59.3W      994            54
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  168  30.3N  56.7W      997            41

———————

CMC next

 The ICON and UKMET were absolutely stellar in that neither model had even one run hitting the coast or even stalling at the coast. None ever got closer than 100 miles from the US. I made sure to post every UKMET with a TC as well as any Icon that nobody else posted.

 All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 12Z on 9/24 are still on Tropical Tidbits:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 ICON:  The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W (see 1st quoted post above). But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS.

 UKMET: The other 4 quotes are of the furthest west UK runs. The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run).

Furthest W of each UKMET run:

9/23 12Z: 77.1W

9/24 0Z: no TC

9/24 12Z: 77.2W

9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W

9/26 0Z: 77.3W

9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W

9/27 12Z: 77.3W

9/28 0Z: 77.4W

 Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon), it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC.

 Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22).
————

 Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC.

 Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run. 

* Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W.

@WxWatcher007