Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Phew

Where is this,cool pic anyways?Looks so surreal,awesome

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Where is this,cool pic anyways?Looks so surreal,awesome

My house here in Erwin! 

[Carvers Gap]

All three 0z global ensembles show the transition to an EPO and/or PNA ridge by very late this month.  Operationals don't have it at 0z, but that could easily change.  Ensembles are the choice for now.  Hopefully, we see further runs over the next 2-3 days which sporadically show major cold out breaks at least heading SE out of Canada along with big highs.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies today use the first week as a transition week(as opposed to full blown cold) and repay us with cold the rest of the month.  I am seeing a bit of a trend to dump cold in the west and then it spreads eastward.  We have seen this trend on modeling(and it be correct) more times than I can count during the past decade.  The 12z GEPS absolutely slams the cold into the West and it quickly spreads eastward.  With all the bouncing around today, this may be a very wicked shot o cold air - lots of bouncing around with very cold air.  It is worth noting that the Canadian model suite will often "see" the extreme of cold air first.  While the Euro is sidestepping a bit, the GEFS and Canadian ensembles at 12z are quite cool.  Remember it is shoulder season and possibly VERY cold air in the mix for December....so no surprise today.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies today use the first week as a transition week(as opposed to full blown cold) and repay us with cold the rest of the month.  I am seeing a bit of a trend to dump cold in the west and then it spreads eastward.  We have seen this trend on modeling(and it be correct) more times than I can count during the past decade.  The 12z GEPS absolutely slams the cold into the West and it quickly spreads eastward.  With all the bouncing around today, this may be a very wicked shot o cold air - lots of bouncing around with very cold air.  It is worth noting that the Canadian model suite will often "see" the extreme of cold air first.  While the Euro is sidestepping a bit, the GEFS and Canadian ensembles at 12z are quite cool.  Remember it is shoulder season and possibly VERY cold air in the mix for December....so no surprise today.  

Probably factoring the MJO. Crawling through 6 and into 7 by early December. Transition in 7 makes sense if the MJO is ruling the Roost. Continued blocking has become a bit of a Question for December now as some Data has backed off some.