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Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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On 9/22/2025 at 10:40 PM, midwoodian said:

Have a big outdoor event up here on Signal Mountain tomorrow evening. Looks like possibility of a shower rolling through around 7 pm. Low overall %.

How likely is it something develops tomorrow between 5 and 8 pm, and if it does, will it move through quickly?


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How did things turn out?

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How did things turn out?

Rained a quarter inch in the morning through noon. The morning forecast underestimated the system. But it had been so dry the rain was soaked up quickly and the event was fine to be held. It was hot and humid until the sun went down and then cooled off nicely.


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On 9/23/2025 at 2:25 PM, Carvers Gap said:

I will give it a go.  Hopefully, some of the Nooga folks will chime in.

Tough time of day to get a good grasp on.  Afternoon storms are a risk in this pattern.  Signal Mountain is also an entirely different ball game due to its elevation.  If it is anything like my area here in TRI, modeling will often miss things above 1500'.

Firstly, I am not a good short range summer weather source. I did check the RGEM, HRRR, and NAM 3k this morning for your local.  I think what you shared is probably accurate.  The RGEM is a hair earlier than 7PM.  

It is worth noting that modeling has been hit or miss with afternoon storms of late over E TN - i.e. not overly accurate.  A lot of these lines and cells have been slow movers.  By late morning or lunch today, if it were me...I would really keep an eye on short range, hi-res modeling which is derived from radar.

The Signal Mountain NWS point and click is this for the entire day (25% from 4-7PM)....

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

 

Model trends can shift fast, especially on Signal Mountain. Afternoon storms are tricky, so I’d watch hi-res radar updates closely around midday.

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16 hours ago, midwoodian said:


Rained a quarter inch in the morning through noon. The morning forecast underestimated the system. But it had been so dry the rain was soaked up quickly and the event was fine to be held. It was hot and humid until the sun went down and then cooled off nicely.


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Great to hear.  Right now, trying to guess where storms are going to pop is akin to wearing a blindfold and throw darts at a dart board.  There is some degree of accuracy, but not a lot.  Anyway, glad you all were able to get the event in.  I am always hesitant to offer specifics, but will when I can.  

During my early years of following weather model snow output(late 90s), I had a coworker heading to W NC for a wedding.  The NWS had issued heavy snow warnings, and I told her it might not be a good idea to travel over the mountain.  We might have received a brief snow shower - even in the mountains.  We got totally blanked.  So, I always get a bit queasy when lots of money and big events are held...and I give any input.  

I have an old roommate who currently works on-air for ESPN's college football programming.  Several years ago, the Euro started putting out HUGE snow outputs for Charlotte.  I am talking 4-5 feet.  I thought it was feedback, but the model was just adamant that a blizzard was coming.  For like 4-5 days, it had huge amounts, and didn't budge even as it was apparent the storm was a no-go.  Earlier I had sent him a message to keep an eye on it.  I don't even think the grass was ever covered.  When referencing another forecaster.....I think he used the word - charlatan.  LOL - yikes.  

I gladly leave the real stuff to Jeff and Co.  Ha!

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15 hours ago, John1122 said:

Today/tonight's rain, which was the highest chance/flood hazard day, is a flop. It didn't rain enough to wet the road under trees here. There may be more upstream but we'll see how heavy it actually is.

You just need to send me out jogging.  It only rained here today when I was out running.  Fortunately, I grabbed a zip-loc bag for my phone.  Only Helene was worse.  The weight of my shoes and clothes was ROUGH by the end of the run.  

Unrelated to John's post(and so I don't have to post again)...Definitely keeping an eye on recent trends for the tropical system early-mid week.  The 12z GFS has it hitting the Apps at a 90 degree angle.  I don't think it will be as bad as last year or even close to that.  So, I don't want to raise that alarm.   The storm just doesn't hold together...moving slower to boot.  Some model runs do have several inches on the taller peaks of W NC.  The one thing I am watching is that it has had a tendency to stall on some runs.

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