INVEST 99L FORMED: (30/30)

[BarryStantonGBP]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a 
persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some 
slight development of this system is possible over the next day or 
two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system 
should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its 
chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

[GaWx]

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:

AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:

AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

Why TF did the lemon nick 99L off the orange?

[BarryStantonGBP]

Invest 99L
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2025:
 

Location: 12.5°N 20.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
 

oi lads reckon this might nick the name Fernand first or would this more likely be gabs

[Wannabehippie]

How much will the upwelling from Erin inhibit this invest along with the other disturbance out in the Atlantic.

[GaWx]

 I’m not sure but am thinking this 12Z UKMET might be for 99L: E of Bermuda moving NNE at the end:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 25.7N 64.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2025 120 26.9N 63.9W 1012 34
0000UTC 25.08.2025 132 29.9N 63.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2025 144 32.0N 62.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 26.08.2025 156 34.8N 61.8W 1013 28
1200UTC 26.08.2025 168 37.5N 60.9W 1013 29

[Seminole]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

How much will the upwelling from Erin inhibit this invest along with the other disturbance out in the Atlantic.

Throw in the exceptional amount of SAL for this time of year and it will be on the struggle bus for a spell.  

 

[GaWx]

I see nothing notable on the 12Z Euro regarding 99L. I don’t see any TC through at least 240 hours.

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I see nothing notable on the 12Z Euro regarding 99L. I don’t see any TC through at least 240 hours.

All the models dont show anyhting anymore