NEW DISTURBANCE: Central Tropical Atlantic (10/60)

[MJO812]

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thread made

[GaWx]

Latest UKMET (0Z) still pretty weak and a little west of 12Z  though still not far W of Bermuda:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.6N  64.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.08.2025  108  21.3N  65.7W     1010            28
    0000UTC 24.08.2025  120  22.9N  67.2W     1011            30
    1200UTC 24.08.2025  132  24.5N  68.2W     1011            35
    0000UTC 25.08.2025  144  26.9N  68.9W     1011            35
    1200UTC 25.08.2025  156  29.9N  68.4W     1012            35
    0000UTC 26.08.2025  168  33.3N  67.2W     1011            31

[MJO812]

Gfs is now offshore at 0z

[WxWatcher007]

Not quite sure what to make of the operational models backing off development when the ensembles still have a pretty robust signal for TC genesis. Erin's evolution will have a big impact on what happens with this one. 

[Wannabehippie]

 

Looks like there has been upwelling from Erin. How much will this impact this disturbance and the other one out in the Atlantic.

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not quite sure what to make of the operational models backing off development when the ensembles still have a pretty robust signal for TC genesis. Erin's evolution will have a big impact on what happens with this one. 

There is a big Saharan air layer out there

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

There is a big Saharan air layer out there

Posting for others to see. I know it’s there and that every system is different, but Erin was able to get past SAL and develop. Even this wave has convective activity.

But the 12z GEFS signal declined near the Antilles too. Maybe it doesn’t develop, or maybe it’s a late developer. I lean toward the latter at this point, with the SW Atlantic being more favorable perhaps.

[NorthHillsWx]

As others have said, I’m a little surprised that model support has waned on this system. It seemed to be in a moist pocket and shear seemed manageable. I do wonder if models are now catching onto the pronounced outflow from Erin as a source of shear that affects this system. It could be one that doesn’t get going until Erin moves away. Also, guidance has continued to trend more towards this system moving north through the same break Erin is traveling through. The chances of an east coast impact seem to be diminishing