ERIN (40 KTS)

[WxWatcher007]

Erin is rocketing along in the tropical Atlantic tonight, and despite a day of convective challenges the system is generating some deeper convection. 

As of now, Erin continues to tick south of forecast, and models think this south of due west motion will continue for a little longer. 

This is reflected in the subtle changes in the NHC track, which has ticked south over time. 

This shift that increased the odds that the Windward Islands, USVI, and PR receive indirect impacts, and depending on the extent and amplitude of the Atlantic ridge, it may have longer term consequences. 

Currently, the odds overwhelmingly favor Erin recurves before reaching the U.S. east coast. Using the Euro, I want to illustrate why. 

(sorry about the gif size lol) 

The models have been trending toward more of an Atlantic Canada risk, but of course we're far from knowing too much that far out. 

[GaWx]

Credit to a poster at S2K for this. Note especially how strong 3 of them get (to MH strength):

18z hurricane models, in 126 hours (00z 8/18):
 

• HWRF: 955 mb, 104 kt, 21.7N 62.0W
• HMON: 954 mb, 103 kt, 22.2N 62.9W
• HAFS-A: 942 mb, 119 kt, 20.5N 65.6W
• HAFS-B: 972 mb, 78 kt, 21.1N 65.7W

[TheDreamTraveler]

Erin ain't looking so hot. But honestly that may be good to allow it to move more westward over time if it stays extremely weak.

[Windspeed]

Hello, yee old farts. It's been a while. Looks like Erin managed to shake off the drier air to the north by closing off a nice bubble and pocket of moist air in the 850 to 500 hpa layers with continued convective bursting near low level vorticity this past evening. It has managed to do this with relatively marginal SSTs (26°-27°C range) since leaving the Cabo Verdes. The COC will be moving into 27°+C during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Erin should continue organizing, and it's pretty clear this system will become the first Atlantic major hurricane for 2025 in a few days' time.

Downstream implications for land interaction are still too early. Granted, it may swing and miss the Eastern CONUS, but there remains some uncertainty for Bermuda and even the Canadian Maritimes depending on trough interaction. Otherwise, Erin should be a powerful CV long-tracker and ACE machine.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: recurves safely from Conus but further W at 70.3+…so, this would be good news for Bermuda, too:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 0 16.4N 39.2W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.08.2025 12 15.8N 41.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 24 15.9N 44.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.8N 47.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 15.08.2025 48 18.0N 50.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 60 19.0N 53.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 72 19.7N 57.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.3N 60.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 96 21.0N 62.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2025 108 21.7N 65.6W 999 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 120 22.7N 67.2W 998 43
1200UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.3W 996 45
0000UTC 19.08.2025 144 26.6N 69.4W 993 49
1200UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.6N 70.1W 989 48
0000UTC 20.08.2025 168 30.7N 70.3W 984 49

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS and CMC are both very close to Bermuda.

Edit: 0Z Euro avoids all land in the W basin with it going ~250 miles W of Bermuda.