african wave (bang in the middle of the mdr, 20/60)

[BarryStantonGBP]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in 
the next day or two. Thereafter, some gradual development of the 
wave is possible during the middle to latter part of next week while 
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

 

[GaWx]

 After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

  The last two runs instead develop it well north of the MDR. This is from the latest (12Z):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.8N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2025 156 30.8N 50.0W 1016 27
1200UTC 10.08.2025 168 34.2N 49.9W 1016 28

 
——————————
 Edit: Whereas the odds of it getting all of the way to the Conus are almost always not high if it actually becomes a TS well out in the MDR at this far out stage, the concern I have is that the MJO may then get stuck in phase 2. That has by a significant margin been the MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) when the most (major) hurricanes have hit the Conus during the months July-Sept. for the period 1975-2024 compared to any other single stage. So, even if this one fails to threaten, there may be others to watch. I hope to post more about that later. Regardless, it’s still very early and there’s no need to get overly worried.  
 
 The risk to the US may actually be higher if it were to stay weak E of the Caribbean.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

  The last two runs instead develop it well north of the MDR. This is from the latest (12Z):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.8N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2025 156 30.8N 50.0W 1016 27
1200UTC 10.08.2025 168 34.2N 49.9W 1016 28

 
——————————
 Edit: Whereas the odds of it getting all of the way to the Conus are almost always not high if it actually becomes a TS well out in the MDR at this far out stage, the concern I have is that the MJO may then get stuck in phase 2. That has by a significant margin been the MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) when the most (major) hurricanes have hit the Conus during the months July-Sept. for the period 1975-2024. So, even if this one fails to threaten, there may be others to watch. I hope to post more about that later. Regardless, it’s still very early and there’s no need to get overly worried.  
 
 The risk to the US may actually be higher if it were to stay weak E of the Caribbean.

AND THE AOI BLEW UP MORE LMAO

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by 
late Monday.  Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while 
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

This one has a good shot at not just developing but being the strongest system yet this season. The environment looks favorable as long as the wave doesn't dive head first into the SAL that will be north of it. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This one has a good shot at not just developing but being the strongest system yet this season. The environment looks favorable as long as the wave doesn't dive head first into the SAL that will be north of it. 

How intense do you think this one will get?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How intense do you think this one will get?

I think it has a shot to be our first hurricane. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it has a shot to be our first hurricane. 

Do you think she might nab MH?

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you think she might nab MH?

Not sure. I think it'd need to get as far west as it can to take advantage of better OHC. I like the development environment. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure. I think it'd need to get as far west as it can to take advantage of better OHC. I like the development environment. 

my gut feeling says she likely will but IDK

How many NS are you anticipating for august?

[GaWx]

After 5 runs in a row with TCG from this (3 in MDR and the last 2 N of the MDR), the new UKMET (0Z) completely dropped this as a TC.

Edit: the 12Z of 8/4 also failed to develop this. 2nd in a row.

[MJO812]

Another Florida hit on gfs

[GaWx]

 Upped from 40% to 50%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the western Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
later today.  Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while 
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This has a short to be the first long track Cape Verde hurricane in early August in long time. Genuine east coast threat and prolific swell producer. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This has a short to be the first long track Cape Verde hurricane in early August in long time. Genuine east coast threat and prolific swell producer. 

krispy erin 

 

[Jtm12180]

krispy erin 

 

Umm….yeah we’d be done with that scenario


.

[BarryStantonGBP]

hon hon hon

 

oui oui

[GaWx]

1. The 12Z GFS has this hit near Cape Canaveral on 8/16 as a ~cat 1 H.
 

2. The 12Z Euro like recent runs and has this as no more than a weak sfc low. It then recurves the weak disturbance safely well out in the ocean. So, it is totally disagreeing with the GFS’ FL hit.

Edit: the EPS (as well as AI and its ensembles) agree with the Euro op.

[GaWx]

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).

3. Barry, you may want to update the thread title to E MDR AOI or something similar because there’s another in Africa not too far behind. Thanks.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).

3. Barry, you may want to update the thread title to E MDR AOI or something similar because there’s another in Africa not too far behind. Thanks.

done

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).

3. Barry, you may want to update the thread title to E MDR AOI or something similar because there’s another in Africa not too far behind. Thanks.

It has been on the models off and on but there is blocking in the Atlantic showing up as well.  I think that is why you saw the tracks into the Carolinas which is plausible.  

[BarryStantonGBP]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to 
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the central 
tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Patel