Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,190
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (2006 / 2024)
NYC: 100 (1933)
LGA: 100 (2006)
JFK: 97 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1943)
NYC: 59 (1964)
LGA: 62 (1947)
JFK: 60 (1964)

Historical: 

 

1812: A tornado struck parts of Westchester County, New York. The same storm today would have caused major destruction. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 

 

1917: 80 forest fires ,were ignited in Trinity County, California when an electrical storm produced hundreds of lightning bolts over a small area which was tinder-box dry from severe drought. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1947: What turned out to be the hottest August on record started off on a decidedly cool note across parts of Michigan with record lows at: Houghton Lake, MI: 32°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 36°, Muskegon, MI: 43°, Flint, MI: 43° and Grand Rapids, MI: 48 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954 - Mount Rainier in Washington State was still covered with sixteen inches of snow at the 5500 foot level following a big snow season. (David Ludlum)

1966: Very strong winds from severe thunderstorms struck northwest Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 80 mph in Laverne, and blew a parked Cessna aircraft through a fence and into a ditch. As the storms approached Gage, winds gusted to 92 mph, causing blowing dust that reduced the visibility to near zero. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: This was the first of 25 straight days without measurable rain at Philadelphia, PA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1974: Georgia--An 18-year-old youth was killed by lightning at a lumber camp on the Ocmulgee River. Maine--One person was killed by lightning at Fort Fairfield. Aroostook County. No further details. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1976: Flight operations at the former Stapleton Airport in Denver, CO were suspended for 90 minutes when the airport tower radar was knocked out and water reached a foot deep on some taxi ramps after 1.50 inches of rain fell in one hour. Record lows gripped Wisconsin including Green Bay, WI: 45°, Madison, WI: 47°, La Crosse, WI: 49° and Milwaukee, WI: 49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: A severe thunderstorm developed in Beadle County, South Dakota during the afternoon and plunged southeastward. Winds up to 80 mph and hail the size of golf balls pelted the area. The hail piled up to six inches deep on roads and to three feet in the ditches. So much hail fell that it remained on the ground in some areas for 36 hours after the storm. Approximately 480,000 acres of nearly ripe crops were badly damaged or completely destroyed. Damage to crops and personal property was estimated at $4 million dollars.
Over 35 inches of rain fell in the Hill Country northwest of San Antonio, TX between 7/31 and 8/4 as the remnants of Tropical Storm Amelia stalled. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: The relentless heat from the summer of 1980 continued. Record highs included: Wichita, KS: 110°, Oklahoma City, OK 108°, Columbia, MO: 108°, Topeka, KS: 107°, Dodge City, KS: 106°, Little Rock, AR: 105°, St. Louis, MO: 104° and Springfield, MO: 103°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1983: During the early afternoon hours, a strong microburst swept across Andrews Air Force Base in Washington, D.C.  Although the base anemometer was not calibrated at extreme wind speeds, the peak gust hit 149 mph. It was reported that Air Force One, with President Reagan on board, landed less than 10 minutes before the peak gust.

1985 - A nearly stationary thunderstorm deluged Cheyenne, WY, with rain and hail. Six inches of rain fell in six hours producing the most damaging flash flood of record for the state. Two to five feet of hail covered the ground following the storm, which claimed twelve lives, and caused 65 million dollars property damage. (Storm Data)

1986 - A powerful thunderstorm produced 100 mph winds and large hail in eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri causing 71 million dollars damage, and injuring nineteen persons. It was one of the worst thunderstorms of record for Kansas. Crops were mowed to the ground in places and roofs blown off buildings along its path, 150 miles long and 30 miles wide, from near Abilene to southeast of Pittsburg. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Record heat gripped parts of the Midwest. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lincoln, NE, with a reading of 105 degrees, Moline, IL, with an afternoon high of 103 degrees, and Burlington, IA, with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Two dozen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including La Crosse WI with a reading of 105 degrees. Highs of 103 degrees at Milwaukee, WI, and South Bend, IN, were records for the month of August. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Chantal made landfall along the Upper Texas coast about sunrise. Chantal deluged parts of Galveston Island and southeastern Texas with 8 to 12 inches of rain. Unofficial totals ranged up to twenty inches. Winds gusted to 82 mph at Galveston, and reached 76 mph in the Houston area. Tides were 5 to 7 feet high. The hurricane claimed two lives, and caused 100 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: A record 220,000 lightning bolts were recorded in the United States on this date. The usual number on summer days is about 100,000. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Suffolk, VA several homes were struck by lightning and at least two people were injured. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)
 

1980: The relentless heat from the summer of 1980 continued. Record highs included: Wichita, KS: 110°, Oklahoma City, OK 108°, Columbia, MO: 108°, Topeka, KS: 107°, Dodge City, KS: 106°, Little Rock, AR: 105°, St. Louis, MO: 104° and Springfield, MO: 103°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

This was such an underrated summer, the hottest July/August couplet for us on record and the hottest and only August with a temperature above 80.0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Happened in June 7/27 after 100 degree heat (48 hours) same this time.  The weekend look fantstic cooler at the beaches with this onshore barrage.

onshore? I thought it would be cooler with some awesome dry Canadian air coming from north, lots of sunshine, low humidity, etc.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much more comfortable start to August. Models actually keep the strongest warm departures next few weeks to our north. Very strong high pressure building in Canada will keep us in a cooler onshore flow. While the models warm the pattern in mid-August, it’s an over the top warm up.

So it’s possible for most of the area that the 100° heat is done for this summer. Since most times we had 100° heat in June and July August didn’t make it back to 100°. The pattern this summer so far has been a step down in high temperatures since late June. This most recent heatwave wasn’t as strong as the one in June was.

Based on past statistics, any heatwave in mid-August will probably be weaker than this one was. But we can’t rule out another 100° reading at the usual warm spots in NJ. Just that it will probably not be at the level that this week was.

IMG_4275.thumb.png.69758a15cd8fbf7a3478650c707ba66e.png

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Newark 100° Temperatures in June and July
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025 103 101 M 103
2021 103 97 99 103
2011 102 108 98 108
1994 102 99 95 102
1993 102 105 100 105
1952 102 98 92 102
1943 102 95 97 102
1988 101 101 99 101
1966 101 105 95 105
2024 100 99 100 100
1959 100 93 96 100
1953 100 99 102 102
1934 100 98 90 100
1923 100 99 92 100

 

1993 was so much of a hotter summer than any other summer on this list.

and yet 2010 was even hotter than 1993 but isn't on this list

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 was so much of a hotter summer than any other summer on this list.

and yet 2010 was even hotter than 1993 but isn't on this list

 

 

2010 was overall sustained heat but June max was only 98 /  Jul - 103 / Aug - 98

 

Not sure but think the list is summers with 2 or more months with 100 degree or higher readings.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2010 was overall sustained heat but June max was only 98 /  Jul - 103 / Aug - 98

 

Not sure but think the list is summers with 2 or more months with 100 degree or higher readings.

there's some great summers on that list, 1953 really stands out-- three out of four months at or above 100? (JJAS)

I don't see 1983 on this list, did EWR hit 100 when JFK did in July and August and what about in September when NYC hit 99?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much more comfortable start to August. Models actually keep the strongest warm departures next few weeks to our north. Very strong high pressure building in Canada will keep us in a cooler onshore flow. While the models warm the pattern in mid-August, it’s an over the top warm up.

So it’s possible for most of the area that the 100° heat is done for this summer. Since most times we had 100° heat in June and July August didn’t make it back to 100°. The pattern this summer so far has been a step down in high temperatures since late June. This most recent heatwave wasn’t as strong as the one in June was.

Based on past statistics, any heatwave in mid-August will probably be weaker than this one was. But we can’t rule out another 100° reading at the usual warm spots in NJ. Just that it will probably not be at the level that this week was.

IMG_4275.thumb.png.69758a15cd8fbf7a3478650c707ba66e.png

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Newark 100° Temperatures in June and July
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025 103 101 M 103
2021 103 97 99 103
2011 102 108 98 108
1994 102 99 95 102
1993 102 105 100 105
1952 102 98 92 102
1943 102 95 97 102
1988 101 101 99 101
1966 101 105 95 105
2024 100 99 100 100
1959 100 93 96 100
1953 100 99 102 102
1934 100 98 90 100
1923 100 99 92 100

 

Analogs seem good for some big heat. I see 1953, a couple from 1988, 2001 (big heat in early August), 2002.

610analog.off.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

there's some great summers on that list, 1953 really stands out-- three out of four months at or above 100? (JJAS)

I don't see 1983 on this list, did EWR hit 100 when JFK did in July and August and what about in September when NYC hit 99?

EWR Max

1983

June: 96
July: 98
Aug:  97
Sep: 99

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The streak continues at Central Park with every month this year being chillier than last year. Glad to see this seeing last year was record warmth.

The fact that last year was record warm almost guaranteed that this year would be cooler. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That rubber band is going to snap in a BIG way soon, I would imagine.

This is one rubber band that won't be snapping back. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, lee59 said:

Not really because two years ago was the same as last year. However, there is still 5 months to go this year but so far so good.

Statistically it is incredibly unlikely that back to back years will be warmest ever. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Last year was record warm only for the period 1869-2024. For the period 2025+, it will be considered a cool year.

So how is that the rubber band snapping back? You're not going back to anything lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2007 also had crazy heat in the south and Ohio Valley. I don't think summer is over yet.

 

definitely not....remember it was just the beginning of last week that several posters were saying we were done with 95 plus heat and look what happened all week. Another signal for heat coming the 10th and beyond

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

So how is that the rubber band snapping back? You're not going back to anything lol

I mean not every month is just going to continue being cooler than the corresponding month in 2024. Eventually that trend has to stop, no? Maybe in time for December, which was about a degree cooler than normal in 2024.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

onshore? I thought it would be cooler with some awesome dry Canadian air coming from north, lots of sunshine, low humidity, etc.

 

wouldnt be surprised to see alot of clouds on one of the two days...starts completely sunny and then you get those clouds start puffing up and before you know it, its mostly cloudy

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean not every month is just going to continue being cooler than the corresponding month in 2024. Eventually that trend has to stop, no? Maybe in time for December, which was about a degree cooler than normal in 2024.

Ah ok. I thought you were saying that we were going to return to a cooler regime. 

That we were snapping back to cooler temps in general. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the heat next few weeks will be centered to our north with the high pressure keeping the flow more E  to eventually S. Also leaves room underneath to get undercut by weak lows moving up from the south. Notice how the EPS boosted the warmth 8-11 to 8-18 further to our north. A generally warmer than normal pattern here but not as warm as late June and July was. 

Aug 4-11

IMG_4276.thumb.webp.aae6b7befd6edafe4fc7aad204c2fd5b.webp

New Aug 11-18

IMG_4277.thumb.webp.d917bf11e52db40ffb5f01fc158d9051.webp

Old Aug 11-18

IMG_4278.thumb.webp.89a187008a38ee169ba6fc135582219f.webp

 

We may never see heat like 1953 again in our lifetimes simply because the climate has become wetter.

As a matter of fact climate change should be framed more in terms of moisture than temperature.  The moisture change is much more significant than any change in temperatures especially during the summer.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Last year was record warm only for the period 1869-2024. For the period 2025+, it will be considered a cool year.

this is why going by average temperatures is such a bad idea, 2024 was in no way shape or form record warm and last summer was nowhere near as hot as this summer has been.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had 105° heat in September since 1953. Back in those days we had extensive drought across the country which allowed late season 100°+heat. 

Now we have become more monsoon-like with 103-105° heat back in June. Then we got the 5+rains in spots. The heat week this week wasn’t as strong as the June heat was. 

Yesterday we got the heavy rains in spots again. Now we are seeing a more comfortable pattern for a while with plenty of easterly flow. 

My guess is that the next warm up in Mid-August will continue the pattern of being weaker than each earlier heatwave. So probably no more widespread 100° heat. But a few of the local warm spots in NJ could see more 95°to maybe a few isolated readings around 100°. 

We saw this past week how JFK and points east couldn’t rival the record 100°+ heat of late June. So a weaker reflection with more onshore flow this time.

 



 

 

Isn't it ironic though how the SST were so much cooler in June when we had the 100+ heat at the coast?  Maybe SST are not that important when it comes to extremely high temperatures (but more important when it comes to elevated mins and higher dew points and humidity?)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

wouldnt be surprised to see alot of clouds on one of the two days...starts completely sunny and then you get those clouds start puffing up and before you know it, its mostly cloudy

From what I have seen, Saturday, Sunday and Monday will be mostly sunny (a great weekend!), Tuesday will be partly cloudy and Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly cloudy.  No rain at all though during that period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...