July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The extreme heat was confined to two days in June, the rest of the summer has been mediocre.

I think we could turn that around a bit either later in July or in August. More likely in August.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

Yes the thicker more polluted air is why the highs are more muted except for those 2 days in late June

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think we could turn that around a bit either later in July or in August. More likely in August.

WX/PT

That would be a nice change, hopefully it's a drier heat

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ironic with all the rain inland

the heavy rain has made it to the south shore

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That would be a nice change, hopefully it's a drier heat

Eventually I think there's a chance of that. More likely later on.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah more water vapor in the atmosphere is actually worse than more co2 in the atmosphere

 

The warming atmosphere from excess CO2 holds more moisture for these extreme rainfall events.

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea

Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming 

In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). 

Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming.   

 

 

Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. 

 

 

“Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.”   

The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are 

 

[wdrag]

You may want to monitor a potential marine heatwave in the north Pacific and discussion of its subsequent winter impact in the northeast USA. Long ranging is fraught with poor performance but the researchers and pattern relators attempt to Improve

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
LGA: 89
TTN: 89
EWR: 88
JFK: 87
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
NYC: 85
ISP: 84

[psv88]

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