2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Daniel Boone]

17 hours ago, Met1985 said:

With today's climate and also a plethora of variables im not so sure about a cold November leads to a cold winter. Last November was pretty warm for many and we then had one of the coldest January's on average in about 30 years. I think we actually see a mixed bag this winter to average things out in my opinion. 

Yeah. Used to be higher percentage so, things does appear to have changed. 

[Daniel Boone]

This Storm would have produced Major Snow in part's of our Area a Month later. 

[Carvers Gap]

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.  

[IndTenn]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.  

At 186z, New England is pretty much blown off the map!

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Used to be higher percentage so, things does appear to have changed. 

Oh yeah not trying to be a pain but with the current climate and all the variables.  I wish it was as easy as it used to be. With pattern recognition and rolling things forward.  Seems like it's more frustrating than anything. 

[Carvers Gap]

The PDO is a decadal trend...haha.  Sorry, had to.

But.......we should be coming out of that crap trend sooner than later.  17-18 seems like when this current winter pattern began.  Cold starts to winters, and meh ends to winter w/ the middle of winter being a crapshoot.  Some extreme cold shots have been embedded.  

That PDO cycle is coupled with the La Nina which is normal I think.  

With the La Nina cooling things off a bit(nature's thermostat), the next weak(and it must be weak) El Nino should offer decent chances.

The NAO appears to be trending more negative during winter after decades of dormancy.  The AMO should flip within the next 3 years - debate as to its "realness" allowed.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Some good graphics in this....DT's prelim ideas.  I am really just posting this for discussion.  You all can decide for yourself if it has merit.  The 13-14 analog looks strong.  You all that brought that idea to the forum...strong work.

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2025/10/winter2526A.pdf

[Carvers Gap]

It could change, but the Weeklies are depicting the hammer(winter) to come down early.  We are going to have a mid-month warmup, but LR ext modeling is showing a very cold pattern to open December.  That could EASILY change as modeling during shoulder season is beyond undependable.  Looks like another cold rainer on tap for early next week, and then the warm-up but  with stout cold fronts embedded.  November could go below normal even with the warm-up.  The trick w/ these La Nina quick start winters is this...will winter come back after the inevitable mid-winter thaw?  

Lastly, and I have stated this often....winter often likes to show up where it has been rainy during the fall.  It is one of two JB rules which I like.  The other is the late hurricane season correlating to an early start to winter.  Right now, both of those are in our favor.

I actually wrote a post last week where I was gonna flip to a later arriving winter.  Cosgrove has me shook!  I posted and then deleted it moments later.  I decided to roll with my original ideas, and the Weeklies literally flipped cold about 5mins after I posted it!  Thankfully, I stayed with my original ideas.  Now, if I were to tweak the winter ideas, I might add a colder period at the end of Jan to begin Feb.  Weeks 1-3 of December cold, and week4 and weeks 1-2 of Feb cold.  That kind of seems like that is the play right now.  It fits those older QBO analogs.  If we can get any help from the PDO region, could be even better.  

And ya'll know I don't do AI for my content...just too many typos.  If you ever see a post with no typos, then you know the singularity got me.

[John1122]

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February. 

[*Flash*]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February. 

Shades of 2010-11 almost. These days, if you give me a pattern evolution supporting 66.67% of calendar winter as actual winter, I'll take it. No questions asked. 

[Carvers Gap]

These are day-to-day runs, but we take this, right?

 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sounds and shades of 2010-11 almost. These days, if you give me a pattern evolution supporting 66.67% of calendar winter as actual winter, I'll take it. No questions asked. 

Absolutely take it.  We are gonna get a thaw which lasts 3-4 weeks.  Anytime we can grab 8 weeks of winter, we take it...even during our best winters IMBY.  Plateau folks have longer stretches!

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

These are day-to-day runs, but we take this, right?

 

Heck yeah. We definitely take this look.

[Carvers Gap]

New CANSIPS is out on Tropical Tidbits(courtesy MA forum):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=2

Some decent changes.  Also, check out the MA forum for Webbers comments about winter.  Good stuff in their winter forum.

[Carvers Gap]

WAAAY out there, the new CANSIPS also has next summer at norma tempsl which implies an El Nino ENSO setup.  MA mentioned a Modokai.  I honestly didn't look at SSTs, but the NA weather pattern looks like it.  Fall "should" be cool next year if so.  I would call for a backloaded winter next winter as well if so....way too early to tell.

Cansips evidently put out the exact same map (from last year at this time) for next fall.  Kind of an embarrassed for that group.  Don't think so?  Go look at the post in the MA forum with the maps side by side.  Completely disregard the above.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February. 

Read that too. His research shows pretty high percentage.

[Met1985]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

New CANSIPS is out on Tropical Tidbits(courtesy MA forum):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=2

Some decent changes.  Also, check out the MA forum for Webbers comments about winter.  Good stuff in their winter forum.

A lot of stuff coming out about the pattern recently. Currently looking decent well cautiously decent at this range lol.

[Carvers Gap]

21 hours ago, Met1985 said:

A lot of stuff coming out about the pattern recently. Currently looking decent well cautiously decent at this range lol.

Computer modeling is so good right now that I almost feel more confident in the weeklies 500 pattern between weeks 3-4 than the detailed look at d7-12 on operationals.  Long wave pattern modeling has gotten really good.  But that said, I have been burned more times than I can count by a shoulder season 500 look at range!  BTW, I don't want people thinking I am walking things back this morning.  I have only looked at 6z operationals...no seasonals or LR ext stuff.  LOL

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at this afternoon's Euro Weeklies....

1.  Still looks like a warm up mid month followed by winter after Thanksgiving.  December 1-15 looks like a good window for cold.

2.  Fly in the ointment is a little belly ridge over Texas which might try to shunt systems to our north.

3.  The control run is very aggressive.

4.  The Euro will often(sometimes woefully) under model eastern cold at range.  It is shoulder season, and it could still be badly wrong.

5.  American LR ext modeling (Euro Weeklies equivalent) will be cold on some runs for December and at other times....hook a mid continent trough into the NAO.  We really might not want a -NAO in December.  Still too early in the season to be a true playa IMHO.

6.  Overall, I still like a cold start to December which is followed by a warm-up.  That fits the pattern of recent winters.  Cosgrove's "late start" to winter idea is supported by this morning's GFS seasonals.  I still think it gets cold early, warms, and then is a crap shoot.  I tend to favor a return to winter after mid-late January. That second cold shot often favors western areas of our forum.  This year, due to the QBO, I think the cold manages to get to the spine of the Apps.

 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just looking at this afternoon's Euro Weeklies....

1.  Still looks like a warm up mid month followed by winter after Thanksgiving.  December 1-15 looks like a good window for cold.

2.  Fly in the ointment is a little belly ridge over Texas which might try to shunt systems to our north.

3.  The control run is very aggressive.

4.  The Euro will often(sometimes woefully) under model eastern cold at range.  It is shoulder season, and it could still be badly wrong.

5.  American LR ext modeling (Euro Weeklies equivalent) will be cold on some runs for December and at other times....hook a mid continent trough into the NAO.  We really might not want a -NAO in December.  Still too early in the season to be a true playa IMHO.

6.  Overall, I still like a cold start to December which is followed by a warm-up.  That fits the pattern of recent winters.  Cosgrove's "late start" to winter idea is supported by this morning's GFS seasonals.  I still think it gets cold early, warms, and then is a crap shoot.  I tend to favor a return to winter after mid-late January. That second cold shot often favors western areas of our forum.  This year, due to the QBO, I think the cold manages to get to the spine of the Apps.

 

I usually agree with Coz for the most part but, this time I see no reason to. La ninas typically have early Winter cold followed by mild Feb. He's probably banking on losing the Nina early Winter and thinking that should lead to a cold end. If anything, if early typical nina cold does materialize and it progresses to neutral and the end turns like he thinks, that could mean a long cold Winter.

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I usually agree with Coz for the most part but, this time I see no reason to. La ninas typically have early Winter cold followed by mild Feb. He's probably banking on losing the Nina early Winter and thinking that should lead to a cold end. If anything, if early typical nina cold does materialize and it progresses to neutral and the end turns like he thinks, that could mean a long cold Winter.

The interesting thing is that JB's analogs show a warm December and a cold last 1/3 of winter.  The CFSv2, which changes daily, shows the same thing this morning and has waffled between a cold Dec and Feb since I posted the above.  I lean towards a cold start to December, but how long that cold lasts in December is up for grabs.  The Euro weeklies, if they can be trusted during shoulder season, show a retrograding PNA/EPO ridge which (by the end of the run) is trying to get into the Aleutians.  Looks like we have a window of about 1-2 weeks to start winter, and then TBD.

[Carvers Gap]

@GaWxgot a mention on JB's blog today.  Awesome stuff.  It is regarding the 50mb PV displacement which is much earlier than normal.

[Carvers Gap]

@GaWx, one thing I did notice regarding the SSW discussion you all are having.  Anytime we see an EC ridge hook into AN heights over Greenland, I have observed the stratosphere get hammered.  I actually tried looking at the Weeklies for strat anomalies, but wxbell doesn't have it I don't "think."  I tried looking due to the ridge that is forecast to roll through mid November.  If it connects into those heights in Greenland....that is when I notice SSWs occur.  I notice it also when a WAR does the same.  That would completely shakeup up LR ext modeling if it occurs partially or in full.  Great disco.  I will drop a link below.  Great discussion... @Daniel Boone

 

[Carvers Gap]

Of note, the Euro weeklies don't have strat maps, but the GEFS weeklies do.  While I am not expert in SSWs or just warmings which cause slight displacements....it sure looks like the SPV slides into Canada w/ some extension into the lower 48.

[Carvers Gap]

This is 10mb at the end of the GEFS weeklies.  Due to the 2-3 week lag, that would imply that sometime later in December and into January that there is a possibility of very cold air draining into NA provided it doesn't go to Asia which has higher odds.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@GaWxgot a mention on JB's blog today.  Awesome stuff.  It is regarding the 50mb PV displacement which is much earlier than normal.

Thanks for letting me know as I hadn’t yet seen that. I very much appreciate that he gave me credit, but I’m confused. Who’s Paulie? Anyone know?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GaWx said:

I very much appreciate that he gave me credit, but I’m confused. Who’s Paulie? Anyone know?

Haha, no idea!  That's hilarious. I figured it was you.

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Haha, no idea!  That's hilarious. I figured it was you.

He said, The stats here are from a friend of my buddy Paulie, known as GaWX

I think JB’s saying that his buddy is named Paulie and that I’m Paulie’s friend. But I don’t know anyone named Paulie. Maybe there’s a poster here or elsewhere who’s real name is Paulie.