2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Daniel Boone]

17 hours ago, Met1985 said:

With today's climate and also a plethora of variables im not so sure about a cold November leads to a cold winter. Last November was pretty warm for many and we then had one of the coldest January's on average in about 30 years. I think we actually see a mixed bag this winter to average things out in my opinion. 

Yeah. Used to be higher percentage so, things does appear to have changed. 

[Daniel Boone]

This Storm would have produced Major Snow in part's of our Area a Month later. 

[Carvers Gap]

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.  

[IndTenn]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.  

At 186z, New England is pretty much blown off the map!

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Used to be higher percentage so, things does appear to have changed. 

Oh yeah not trying to be a pain but with the current climate and all the variables.  I wish it was as easy as it used to be. With pattern recognition and rolling things forward.  Seems like it's more frustrating than anything. 

[Carvers Gap]

The PDO is a decadal trend...haha.  Sorry, had to.

But.......we should be coming out of that crap trend sooner than later.  17-18 seems like when this current winter pattern began.  Cold starts to winters, and meh ends to winter w/ the middle of winter being a crapshoot.  Some extreme cold shots have been embedded.  

That PDO cycle is coupled with the La Nina which is normal I think.  

With the La Nina cooling things off a bit(nature's thermostat), the next weak(and it must be weak) El Nino should offer decent chances.

The NAO appears to be trending more negative during winter after decades of dormancy.  The AMO should flip within the next 3 years - debate as to its "realness" allowed.