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2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread


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This could be the most negative -IOD We've seen since the early 1980'S.Back into 1996  it dopped to -1.192 on 10-16-96 per JAMSTEC, per the BOM it recently dropped to negative 1.2

I couldnt resist to play around and check out AI on google the winter of 1996-97 in our parts,just take it as a grain of salt,surely dont mean we will repeat

 

AI Overview
 
The 1996-97 winter in Tennessee was marked by a long period of cold and snowy conditions, with some records set for the season, including a major spring snowstorm in March 1997 that added to an already harsh winter, though it was not a particularly severe event in the context of Tennessee history compared to other major events. Records for the winter season were set in other parts of the country, but for the Nashville area, the 1996-97 winter was described as long and harsh. 
 
Key characteristics of the 1996-97 winter in Tennessee: 
 
  • Long Duration of Cold:
    The winter started with cold conditions, and many areas saw snow accumulate starting in November, with the ground remaining covered under snow through February.
  • Spring Snowstorm:
    A significant storm in March 1997 brought more snow to the region, adding to the heavy accumulation from the winter, which was a long and harsh winter for the region.
  • Overall Severity:
    The winter of 1996-97 was considered a harsh one, with some areas experiencing extreme winter conditions.

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Climate-monitoring-graphs-08-31-2025_04_08_PM.png

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Its still a crap shoot trying to predict the winter.In 1996-97 East Asia was cold and so were we.In 2016-17 winter East Asia was warm and so were we,so you have to see whats actually driving the pattern but otherwise both of these winters i shown were in a NINA pattern,i still believe it could be like last winter,but i can also see what Carver said a few weeks ago being right.This pic i posted with the arrow in the negative IOD which is by contrast was in mid July was -1.5 in 2016,so your extreme negative IOD isnt the total driver.

It fascinates me tho about the IOD.When ever you have an an extreme +IOD,in general it leads into a decent NINO the following year but when you have a strong -IOD like now, NINA continues but in case like 1997 evolved into a strong NINO,but in 2017 it was like a resurrgent NINA.oh well,i can get intrigued by strange shit..lol

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2010-2011 winter had the White Christmas in Chattanooga, storybook with 3-4 inches of snow that morning. Then we got hammered 8-10 inches mid-January. I think one other true accumulating snow happened (Dec 13 or 14). Then we got a few little dustings. IIRC it was a good year from the Mid-South to the Great Valley. 

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14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Ryan Hall video I was watching, he said 2010-11 was an 85 percent analog match for this coming winter. Not exactly sure where he's seeing that but it was very snowy that winter for my area at least. 

I saw that Video. 2010-11 was a great Winter. Basically all Forecasters were predicting a mild one due to the formidable La nina. Upstream blocking crapped their Outlook's.

I saw where 62-63 is being thrown around some as well. That one was just bitter. Not any big Snows but many Snowfalls. Blocking once again ruled the Roost.

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