June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Sundog said:

Of course what you say is true, I was being silly lol

I was being sarcastic because people blame UHI for everything. How does UHI explain record breaking 850mb temperatures for example? It doesn't, but people will continue to blame the airport or the concrete at sea level. 

No problem. You have a good sense of humor. It’s pretty wild how extreme these 500mb ridges have become over the last decade. I guess if the magnitude of the February 2018 ridge anomaly with the 80° record warmth occurred in the summer months, then  it would be something like a 605+ dm ridge. But this ridge with the coming record June heat in a few days will be more than enough than most people want to see. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

The importance of an offshore wind at JFK cannot be overstated. The ultimate June example: June 27, 1966 highs: Central Park: 101; JFK Airport: 82.

[Sundog]

9 hours ago, FPizz said:

Beautiful day.  84, Sun, and pool.  

Trenton is usually hot, so it being 1 degree warmer than nyc, who cares? Plenty of stations all around today were 82. 

I think even if NYC recorded a high of 75 you would somehow try to spin that shit as valid 

[steve392]

What an amazing evening last night.  Needed to cut the grass before this scorching heat made it impossible to do.  Nice cool breeze afterwards.  

 

67 and sunny now.

[Sundog]

Just now, steve392 said:

What an amazing evening last night.  Needed to cut the grass before this scorching heat made it impossible to do.  Nice cool breeze afterwards.  

 

67 and sunny now.

It's amazing what a difference low dewpoints make.  

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

This is not correct. No other stations were 82. Sacrus posted the numbers. 

NOAA has noted the obstruction of the trees.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. 

That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. 

Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. 

The summers really shifted to much warmer back in 2010. We haven’t  had a single cool summer by long term averages since 2009. Our only below average summers for temperatures have been 2014, 2017, and 2023. And even those summers were slightly cooler only due to the rising 30 year means. They would have been pretty average summers for temperatures in past 30 year climate eras. So we have had a remarkable 12 out of the last 15 summers warmer to record warm. Plus the 70° and 75° dew point days have reached record levels also. 

From 2010 to 2013 we had a strong focus of 100° heat mostly in July. This was when the all-time summer  high of 108° was set in several locations. But during the 2020s we have already seen local all-time highs for the month of June. This will be the 3rd year this decade with 100° heat in June. But July 2022 set the record for consecutive 100° day at 5 in Newark.

So this coming record heatwave is following  the same 2020s pattern of 100°+ heat in June. This reminds me of monsoon climates around the world which experience their greatest summer heat in June before the summer monsoon arrives. It  will be something to monitor going forward. Since each June in the 2020s that reached 100° was followed by 10”+ rain in a few hours to days like last summer and 2021 at some later point.  

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

77 / 62  the heat is on. Ridge building in to 594 DM with 850 MB temps spiking to >21C Mon - Wed.  Partly cloudy  90 for the hotter spots today, otherwise upper 80s.  Mid - upper 90s tomorrow, outside chance of century mark in the hottest spots.   Only clouds / seasbreaze woudl hinder 100s in the hot spots inland Monday, with Tuesday the hottest day with widespread 100s .  Wed a chance at the tri century if clouds / storms dont get in the way.  T

hu/ FRi deal with more storms as ridge wanes and we ride the periphery with storms and some stonger onshore. 

The weekend sees ridge re build with more heat in the 6/28 - 7/2 peeiod.   

Beyond there overall warm - hot / humid and wetter with storm chances. 

J

uly 4th forecast to begin as in long range  336 hours forecast range.

6/21 - 6/25 : Hot - mainly dry heatwave
6/26 -  6/27 : Storms reduce or break heat
6/28 - 7/2 :  heat builds back more 90s, storm chances
7/3 - Beyond :  Warm - Hot, Humid overall - wettter storms 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (2024)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 97 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 46 (1940)
NYC: 49 (1897)
LGA: 53 (1940)
JFK: 56 (1968)

Historical:

 

 

1886: TA destructive hurricane hit the Apalachicola – Tallahassee area of Florida on the summer solstice. Extensive damage was done in Florida and throughout the southeast by this storm. Damage was due mainly to extremely high tides.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1893 - On the first day of summer the temperature at Dodge City, KS, soared to 106 degrees during the midst of a blistering heat wave. The heat wave initiated a severe three year drought in the Central Plains Region. Ironically, at about the same time, heavy rains in the Mississippi Valley were causing the river to swell to its highest level of record at New Orleans, LA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1919 - Seven heavy coach cars of a moving train were picked up and thrown from the tracks by tornado winds. A baggage car was set down thirty feet away from the rest of the train. (The Weather Channel)

 

1923: The island of Nantucket off Cape Cod had its earliest 90 degree reading and the only one ever in June. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954 - A severe hailstorm struck Wichita KS and vicinity causing nine million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

 

1968: A line of severe thunderstorms raced across the state of South Dakota at 60 mph with winds that exceeded 100 mph in some areas with winds over 60 mph quite common. Many areas also received extensive hail damage with dime to golf ball size hail common and even a few areas were pounded with baseball size hail. At least, nine tornadoes and 11 separate funnel clouds were reported, although more likely occurred...they were probably obscured by darkness in the east and by blowing dust in the west. To that point in the state's history, the night's storms were likely the most damaging on record as they resulted in $10 to $15 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Phoenix, AZ, was drenched with 1.64 inches of rain late on the 21st and early on the 22nd to easily surpass their previous June rainfall record of 0.95 inches. The total for the month was 1.70 inches. (The Weather Channel)

1972: When Hurricane Agnes dropped 16 inches of rain over central Virginia in 1972, the James River flooded Richmond. Flood waters in the river reached 6.5 feet higher than the historical 200-year-old record. Richmond, VA experienced its worst flood of record as rains from Hurricane Agnes pushed the water level at the city locks to a height of 36.5 feet, easily topping the previous record of thirty feet set in 1771. Thirteen years later, a multi-million dollar floodwall was erected to prevent the rising waters of the river from overflowing again.  Agnes gave DC. 7.19 inches rain in 24 hrs. an all-time rec. 11 inches n. suburbs, 15.00 in Herndon, 16 in Chantilly, VA.

 

1987 - A tornado destroyed 57 mobile homes at the Chateam Estates trailer park northwest of Detroit, MI, killing one person and injuring six others. Total damage was estimated at 1.7 million dollars. Thunderstorms over Lower Michigan also drenched the Saginaw Valley with up to 4.5 inches of rain in less than six hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The first full day of summer was a torrid one, with afternoon highs of 100 degrees or above reported from the Northern and Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Sixty-nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 110 degrees at Sioux Falls, SD, was an all-time record for that location. Highs of 103 degrees at Des Moines, IA, 102 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, 109 degrees at Huron, SD, 108 degrees at Sioux City, IA, and 101 degrees at South Bend IN were records for June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - The first day of summer heralded snow in the northern and central Rockies. In Colorado, 15 inches of snow was reported at the summit of Mount Evans and, in Wyoming, 18 inches was reported at Dickensen Park, west of Lander. Heavy rain continued in the eastern U.S. Huntsville, AL, reported a record 11.65 inches for the month, compared to the 0.17 inch rainfall total in June 1988. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A slow-moving thunderstorm dumped up to a foot of hail in southeastern portions of Colorado Springs, Colorado. Snowplows had to be used to clear a route through a major thoroughfare in the city. Heavy rainfall from the storm left up to 4 feet of water in city streets, trapping dozens of motorists (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

 

Through the first 2/3 of Jun.  Should average +5 over the last 10 days of the month to get the area solidly above normal for Junde despite that days of clouds and near or sub 70.

 

Departures thru 6/20 (pcp0

JFK: + 0.7 (2.23)
EWR: +0.3  (2.13)
NYC: -1.0 (2.24)
LGA: -1.5 (2.32)

[SACRUS]

 

90 degree days for June back to 2010, with the upcoming stretch should put this year solidly in the top 3/5

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

of course we all believe in climate change, we just do not agree how it manifests itself in all areas.  Many of us have looked at the data and we see it affects minimum temperatures MUCH more than it affects maximum temperatures during the summer.  If you read the text of what I posted, I referred specifically to summer maximums.  In the winter the situation is different, it affects maximums just as much as minimums.

This is a nuanced discussion and you can't apply the same effects to different seasons or even to different times of the diurnal cycle.  That's what most people miss.

and the phrase *global warming* has been retired in favor of climate change, because climate change much more accurately describes what's going on.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where climate change is a factor is in the strength and staying power of the ridge. If we hit 600dm that likely is directly attributable to CC. We can break that record and still not break temp records. JFK needs a wind vector of WNW to NW, for a daily record. The Park needs surrounding stations to be 105 to hit 100. So lots of little intricacies on a local level. 

FWIW it isn't just the coastal areas that are seeing less extreme temperatures, Newark itself hasn't come close to matching the number of 100 degree days that happened in 1949 and 1993 either.  The data shows it.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. 

That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. 

Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. 

That's correct, what the people with reading comprehension issues missed is that I specifically referred to extreme summer high temperatures.  And there is a reason why that hasn't happened and that also has to do with climate change, namely that adding more moisture into the atmosphere makes it much more difficult to pass previous record highs in the summer.

It's basic physics folks.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The summers really shifted to much warmer back in 2010. We haven’t  had a single cool summer by long term averages since 2009. Our only below average summers for temperatures have been 2014, 2017, and 2023. And even those summers were slightly cooler only due to the rising 30 year means. They would have been pretty average summers for temperatures in past 30 year climate eras. So we have had a remarkable 12 out of the last 15 summers warmer to record warm. Plus the 70° and 75° dew point days have reached record levels also. 

From 2010 to 2013 we had a strong focus of 100° heat mostly in July. This was when the all-time summer  high of 108° was set in several locations. But during the 2020s we have already seen local all-time highs for the month of June. This will be the 3rd year this decade with 100° heat in June. But July 2022 set the record for consecutive 100° day at 5 in Newark.

So this coming record heatwave is following  the same 2020s pattern of 100°+ heat in June. This reminds me of monsoon climates around the world which experience their greatest summer heat in June before the summer monsoon arrives. It  will be something to monitor going forward. Since each June in the 2020s that reached 100° was followed by 10”+ rain in a few hours to days like last summer and 2021 at some later point.  

 

 

we haven't matched the heat of the 2010-2013 period or how widespread it was, look at this amazing 2012 heat we had in June

 

LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 97 (2012)

 

[FPizz]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

This is not correct. No other stations were 82. Sacrus posted the numbers. 

It was a joke because Sundog can't handle it lol.  Plenty of personal stations though were 82, but we throw those out.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The importance of an offshore wind at JFK cannot be overstated. The ultimate June example: June 27, 1966 highs: Central Park: 101; JFK Airport: 82.

and yet in early July, JFK exceeded Central Park when it hit 104.

 

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet in early July, JFK exceeded Central Park when it hit 104.

 

Yes. It can happen, especially with an offshore flow. July 23, 1972 is a great example: JFK: 100; Central Park: 94.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The summers really shifted to much warmer back in 2010. We haven’t  had a single cool summer by long term averages since 2009. Our only below average summers for temperatures have been 2014, 2017, and 2023. And even those summers were slightly cooler only due to the rising 30 year means. They would have been pretty average summers for temperatures in past 30 year climate eras. So we have had a remarkable 12 out of the last 15 summers warmer to record warm. Plus the 70° and 75° dew point days have reached record levels also. 

From 2010 to 2013 we had a strong focus of 100° heat mostly in July. This was when the all-time summer  high of 108° was set in several locations. But during the 2020s we have already seen local all-time highs for the month of June. This will be the 3rd year this decade with 100° heat in June. But July 2022 set the record for consecutive 100° day at 5 in Newark.

So this coming record heatwave is following  the same 2020s pattern of 100°+ heat in June. This reminds me of monsoon climates around the world which experience their greatest summer heat in June before the summer monsoon arrives. It  will be something to monitor going forward. Since each June in the 2020s that reached 100° was followed by 10”+ rain in a few hours to days like last summer and 2021 at some later point.  

 

 

Monsoon climates have a secondary maxima in September, Chris.  I know, because in my travels around the world, I've experienced these climates.  They have a primary maxima in May and June and a secondary maxima in September and October.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It can happen, especially with an offshore flow. 

The really interesting thing about inland areas, let's take Newark as an example, is that they have never matched the number of 100 degree days they had in 1949 (8) or 1993 (9).  I wonder if there is a ceiling to how much CC can affect inland areas for summer maxima too Don?

Factoring in the additional amount of moisture added to the atmosphere because of CC, there might well be.....

 

[SACRUS]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

FWIW it isn't just the coastal areas that are seeing less extreme temperatures, Newark itself hasn't come close to matching the number of 100 degree days that happened in 1949 and 1993 either.  The data shows it.

 

Newark top 100 degree season leaders 2022 was only 3 off with 2 days 99

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5

 

 

If you expand it to 99 and higher

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 99 °F
1993	1	12
1988	2	9
1949	2	9
2022	4	8
1999	4	8
1953	4	8
2011	7	7
2010	8	6

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It was a joke because Sundog can't handle it lol.  Plenty of personal stations though were 82, but we throw those out.

a few days ago NYC exceeded LGA by 1 degree.

Fortunately some of us have excellent memories and remember these things....

also what was going on in July 1966 when the temperature at NYC was only 103 and LGA was 107 and JFK was 104 and EWR was 105?

Were those foliage issues too?

Temperatures in a park will be cooler, with or without foliage issues, folks....

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Newark top 100 degree season leaders 2022 was only 3 off with 2 days 99

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5

 

 

If you expand it to 99 and higher

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 99 °F
1993	1	12
1988	2	9
1949	2	9
2022	4	8
1999	4	8
1953	4	8
2011	7	7
2010	8	6

Yes 2022 was extremely hot no doubt, but we still have not been able to match 1949 or 1993 for extreme heat so it makes me wonder if there is a natural limit to how hot it can get.  Obviously if we keep warming on this trajectory whatever those thresholds are they will eventually be passed.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Newark top 100 degree season leaders 2022 was only 3 off with 2 days 99

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5

 

 

If you expand it to 99 and higher

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 99 °F
1993	1	12
1988	2	9
1949	2	9
2022	4	8
1999	4	8
1953	4	8
2011	7	7
2010	8	6

I loved 1993 I consider that my hottest summer on record in terms of how hot it felt (2010 was much drier), so this matches my experience.  I see 1988 up there and it matches 1949 for second place, I came back from a long overseas trip in August that summer and my house was like an oven when I got back.

Good to see 2022 in a tie with 1953 and 1999, two other historically hot summers with very long heatwaves.

[SACRUS]

 

The issue with central park is it being a mecca for the NYC region as a whole and the perception isnt truly representative of the urban/city metro areas. Head lines first 100 possible since 2012, first 90 degree day , hottest in years when many other sites have been hotter recently and have 90 degree days already this year.  TTN seems to be running lower than prior years but i havent looked to deep into it.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Newark top 100 degree season leaders 2022 was only 3 off with 2 days 99

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2022	3	6
1953	3	6
1988	5	5

 

 

If you expand it to 99 and higher

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 99 °F
1993	1	12
1988	2	9
1949	2	9
2022	4	8
1999	4	8
1953	4	8
2011	7	7
2010	8	6

Tony do you have a list for JFK and NYC in terms of 99 and higher? I know 1949 takes the number one spot for 99+ temperatures at NYC with 5, not sure what is number 1 for JFK, but I know they have the same number of 99 degree temperatures (19) that they have of 100+ temperatures (also 19), which I find absolutely amazing.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

The issue with central park is it being a mecca for the NYC region as a whole and the perception isnt truly representative of the urban/city metro areas. Head lines first 100 possible since 2012, first 90 degree day , hottest in years when many other sites have been hotter recently and have 90 degree days already this year.  TTN seems to be running lower than prior years but i havent looked to deep into it.

Yes, I wonder how many official NWS ASOS locations measure their temperatures in a park?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

The issue with central park is it being a mecca for the NYC region as a whole and the perception isnt truly representative of the urban/city metro areas. Head lines first 100 possible since 2012, first 90 degree day , hottest in years when many other sites have been hotter recently and have 90 degree days already this year.  TTN seems to be running lower than prior years but i havent looked to deep into it.

Can you include JFK in this list too, Tony? I know they had 31 90 degree days in 2010 , 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days (one more than NYC.)

 

[SACRUS]

 

Updated 90 degree days by season 2010 - prsnt

 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony do you have a list for JFK and NYC in terms of 99 and higher? I know 1949 takes the number one spot for 99+ temperatures at NYC with 5, not sure what is number 1 for JFK, but I know they have the same number of 99 degree temperatures (19) that they have of 100+ temperatures (also 19), which I find absolutely amazing.

 

JFK 99 degree days season leaders by year

 

2010	1	3
1983	1	3
1966	1	3
2019	4	2
2011	4	2
2002	4	2
1999	4	2
1993	4	2
1949	4	2
1948	4	2
2013	11	1
2012	11	1
2006	11	1
2001	11	1
1991	11	1
1986	11	1
1978	11	1
1972	11	1
1969	11	1
1964	11	1
1963	11	1
1959	11	1
1957	11	1
1955	11	1
1952	11	1