June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

81 / 56 partly cloudy as some clouds move in from the north

 

This is what I mean by a wetter atmosphere.

From my own personal observations, it's made it harder to reach or exceed 100 and especially to get higher than 102 especially in the city and at the coast.  Even without a seabreeze.  In all our big heatwaves, like in 1993 and 1999, even in 2010 and 2011, I've seen clouds billow up as the temperature reached 100 or when it got into the lower 100s.  Even on W or NW flow this tends to cut off the temperature rise.

During the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, I deduce in our very hot summers there was less in the way of clouds and thats how NYC hit 106 in 1936 and how JFK hit 104 and LGA hit 107 in 1966.  I know that 1966 was our driest year on record and no other year was even close.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

a couple of beaches on Long Island are closed because of elevated bacteria levels thanks to excessive rainfall and runoff from hazardous chemicals....

[Sundog]

18z NAM has a seabreeze for Monday as well. But it gets close to 100 before it drops us into the 80s and 70s east of the city. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

18z NAM has a seabreeze for Monday as well. But it gets close to 100 before it drops us into the 80s and 70s east of the city. 

Good. I don’t need 100 degree heat. Let the ocean cool us off while inland roasts

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good. I don’t need 100 degree heat. Let the ocean cool us off while inland roasts

I think we're all getting thrashed with the heat on Tuesday. 

 

[TWCCraig]

Sea breeze for Monday was sniffed out over the past couple of days. The hottest day will be Tuesday, looks like it will start off with offshore flow then a sea breeze develops, for coastal locations at least. Still will be brutal even with the sea breeze. I can see this being similar to 7/22/2011 where ISP hit 100 before the sea breeze, but still had temps in the mid to upper 90's after the sea breeze. I don't think dew points will be as high as they were in 2011. Also possible that we fall just short of 100

ISP on 7/22/2011:

 

[Dark Star]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a couple of beaches on Long Island are closed because of elevated bacteria levels thanks to excessive rainfall and runoff from hazardous chemicals....

What does hazardous chemicals have to do with elevated bacteria levels, unless the "hazardous" chemicals are a food source for the bacteria, but I would be surprised if that growth would happen naturally.  More likely a washout from a wastewater treatment plant from a sudden storm or just from leaching out of local septic tanks and leach fields.

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested in checking out New York City area records, I created a GPT that can be queried using ChatGPT. That GPT an be found at here.

[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Sea breeze for Monday was sniffed out over the past couple of days. The hottest day will be Tuesday, looks like it will start off with offshore flow then a sea breeze develops, for coastal locations at least. Still will be brutal even with the sea breeze. I can see this being similar to 7/22/2011 where ISP hit 100 before the sea breeze, but still had temps in the mid to upper 90's after the sea breeze. I don't think dew points will be as high as they were in 2011. Also possible that we fall just short of 100

ISP on 7/22/2011:

 

Don't forget though the water is much cooler now than it would be a month from now. 

If a seabreeze comes Islip should cool down pretty well. 

[Sundog]

The water on the south shore is currently close to 60 degrees. 

[Sundog]

18z RGEM is showing some cracks in the offshore flow. This is 5PM Tuesday:

 

[Sundog]

Low to mid 80s for the city by 8PM on the RGEM for Tuesday. 

That would be amazing. 

[TWCCraig]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The water on the south shore is currently close to 60 degrees. 

63 south of ISP and the Great South Bay is close to 70. I'm pretty close to the water, cooler than most and I'm at 81 right now with a sea breeze, so the sea breeze only does so much. The winds Monday and Tuesday look light and you have a bit more solar insolation around the solstice than you do a month from now.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

 

[Sundog]

18z NAM for Tuesday has major seabreeze as well. 70s for NYC at 8PM:

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

63 south of ISP and the Great South Bay is close to 70. I'm pretty close to the water, cooler than most and I'm at 81 right now with a sea breeze, so the sea breeze only does so much. Plus the winds Monday and Tuesday look light and you have a bit more solar insolation around the solstice than you do a month from now.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

I don't think you're maintaining 90s with a wind off the water, even if it's on the lighter end. 

[TWCCraig]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't think you're maintaining 90s with a wind off the water, even if it's on the lighter end. 

We've done it plenty of times here in June, even May it's possible. NAM only goes out 84 hours to Tuesday 2am so I'm not sure how you can see Tuesday afternoon

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

We've done it plenty of times here in June, even May it's possible. NAM only goes out 84 hours to Tuesday 2am so I'm not sure how you can see Tuesday afternoon

Damn I meant Monday afternoon not Tuesday lol

My brain saw Tuesday 0z and mixed up the days

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What does hazardous chemicals have to do with elevated bacteria levels, unless the "hazardous" chemicals are a food source for the bacteria, but I would be surprised if that growth would happen naturally.  More likely a washout from a wastewater treatment plant from a sudden storm or just from leaching out of local septic tanks and leach fields.

thinking it's fertilizer runoff.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't think you're maintaining 90s with a wind off the water, even if it's on the lighter end. 

we just did it like 10 days ago lol.  the water doesn't have as much influence as you think

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

63 south of ISP and the Great South Bay is close to 70. I'm pretty close to the water, cooler than most and I'm at 81 right now with a sea breeze, so the sea breeze only does so much. The winds Monday and Tuesday look light and you have a bit more solar insolation around the solstice than you do a month from now.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

 

people have a distorted view of the seabreeze, we were in the 90s on a SW wind 10 days ago, this is Long Island not Greenland.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't think you're maintaining 90s with a wind off the water, even if it's on the lighter end. 

a light wind can easily result in 100+ unless you're on Fire Island or Long Beach.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The water on the south shore is currently close to 60 degrees. 

close to 70 here or more precisely, the range is 63-68, 63 further east and 68 further west.

[Dark Star]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thinking it's fertilizer runoff.

Fertilizer can definitely increase the growth of algae, which some bloom has already shut down Spruce Run in western Jersey from swimming for the year.  Happens to that lake more so than others?

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Don't forget though the water is much cooler now than it would be a month from now. 

If a seabreeze comes Islip should cool down pretty well. 

the seabreeze doesn't work that way though, the sea breeze comes in well after it has hit 100 in such a scenario, so you can easily be 100+ at 12 noon and the sea breeze comes in at like 4 pm, thats how it usually works around here.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Fertilizer can definitely increase the growth of algae, which some bloom has already shut down Spruce Run in western Jersey from swimming for the year.  Happens to that lake more so than others?

Yes and I think they're talking about blue green algae which is actually a form of bacteria that is photosynthetic.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

18z NAM has a seabreeze for Monday as well. But it gets close to 100 before it drops us into the 80s and 70s east of the city. 

Seabreezes typically don't come in until after 4 pm.

Two early season situations I found for JFK, both close to 100.

First is May 29, 1969

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1969-5-29

 

2:00 PM	97 °F	63 °F	32 %	WNW	8 mph	0 mph	29.67 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
3:00 PM	98 °F	62 °F	30 %	WNW	18 mph	0 mph	29.65 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
4:00 PM	99 °F	63 °F	30 %	W	17 mph	0 mph	29.62 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
5:00 PM	97 °F	62 °F	31 %	W	17 mph	0 mph	29.61 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
6:00 PM	88 °F	66 °F	48 %	WSW	15 mph	0 mph	29.59 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
7:00 PM	88 °F	63 °F	43 %	WSW	14 mph	0 mph	29.60 in	0.0 in	Fair

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Seabreezes typically don't come in until after 4 pm.

Two early season situations I found for JFK, both close to 100.

First is May 29, 1969

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1969-5-29

 

2:00 PM	97 °F	63 °F	32 %	WNW	8 mph	0 mph	29.67 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
3:00 PM	98 °F	62 °F	30 %	WNW	18 mph	0 mph	29.65 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
4:00 PM	99 °F	63 °F	30 %	W	17 mph	0 mph	29.62 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
5:00 PM	97 °F	62 °F	31 %	W	17 mph	0 mph	29.61 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
6:00 PM	88 °F	66 °F	48 %	WSW	15 mph	0 mph	29.59 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
7:00 PM	88 °F	63 °F	43 %	WSW	14 mph	0 mph	29.60 in	0.0 in	Fair

Second one is June 19, 1994

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1994-6-19

12:00 PM	97 °F	65 °F	35 %	NW	10 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	98 °F	67 °F	36 %	N	12 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	95 °F	67 °F	40 %	N	13 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
3:00 PM	94 °F	67 °F	41 %	N	9 mph	21 mph	29.91 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
4:00 PM	92 °F	66 °F	42 %	N	14 mph	0 mph	29.91 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
5:00 PM	88 °F	68 °F	51 %	W	8 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Mostly Cloudy
6:00 PM	92 °F	70 °F	48 %	NE	15 mph	0 mph	29.92 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
7:00 PM	90 °F	67 °F	46 %	NE	13 mph	0 mph	29.93 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy

[qg_omega]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Low to mid 80s for the city by 8PM on the RGEM for Tuesday. 

That would be amazing. 

Would expect sea breezes each day, can still make a run at 100 before 1pm

[TWCCraig]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we just did it like 10 days ago lol.  the water doesn't have as much influence as you think

Yea I can recall many times in the past where it's 90+ degrees with a southerly wind off the water in June, and that's in modest heat waves

[donsutherland1]

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Temperatures will top out in the middle 80s tomorrow. Afterward, the heat will come roaring back on Sunday with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.

Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF continues to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -6.89 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.245 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).