2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

The record breaking Aleutian Ridge continues to warm the SSTs below leading to these persistent -PDOs again dropping back under -2.00. So the net effect is a record Southeast Ridge like we are seeing this week near 600 dm. This is what is driving such a strong La Niña background pattern. So there is probably a feedback process leading to the record warm subtropical SSTs. The RONI would be much lower if we subtracted the Nino 3.4 tropical SST departures from the subtropical. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/19/2025 at 4:16 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Keep in mind that October 2024 was the lowest monthly PDO on record, going back to the 1800s, so this recent dip is no lite event. June PNA has a pretty good correlation with a stronger Winter SE ridge in Dec-Jan-March. We'll be around -1 for June PNA (correlation of below maps is opposite for negative phase)

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record breaking Aleutian Ridge continues to warm the SSTs below leading to these persistent -PDOs again dropping back under -2.00. So the net effect is a record Southeast Ridge like we are seeing this week near 600 dm. This is what is driving such a strong La Niña background pattern. So there is probably a feedback process leading to the record warm subtropical SSTs. The RONI would be much lower if we subtracted the Nino 3.4 tropical SST departures from the subtropical. 

 

 

It's call thermal memory associated with climate change ...

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's call thermal memory associated with climate change ...

The interesting thing is that the 500mb record heights emerged prior to any SST signal. So once the SSTs below reach a certain level a feedback process probably kicks in perpetuating the record ridge persistence even further. But it would be interesting to know which specific area of the planet warmed  past a certain threshold leading to the emergence of the ridge before the SST lagged response. My guess the initial 500mb Rossby Wave train impulse began somewhere closer to the tropics. Perhaps the Indio Pacific warm pool. But there could also be an interplay between the Atlantic and Pacific at work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1..here are SSTs from Augus to November 2021, preceding the only -WPO DM since 2016-2017.

 

 

 

 

Now here is last year, which was featured a major DM +WPO...check out the difference around the Indian Ocean and even east of Japan...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is that the 500mb record heights emerged prior to any SST signal. So once the SSTs below reach a certain level a feedback process probably kicks in perpetuating the record ridge persistence even further. But it would be interesting to know which specific area of the planet warmed  past a certain threshold leading to the emergence of the ridge before the SST lagged response. My guess the initial 500mb Rossby Wave train impulse began somewhere closer to the tropics. Perhaps the Indio Pacific warm pool. But there could also be an interplay between the Atlantic and Pacific at work.

it's almost like it's just sync aligning the response circuitry.

  ( like wtf does that mean?!  haha).   I mean, first the 500 mb responds.  Because it is free atmosphere, ..which physically means it would respond to a heat surplussing first.  etc... But, the ensuing circulation forcing then constructs/effects in the ocean patterns of wind-SS stressing.  The heat aggregation regions emerge. 

This may look like a positive feedback?  But technically it would just a response tapestry.  

Hard to say...  there's definitely a lot of a "emergent" properties due to the immensely complex interacting forces that are also in themselves, in a state of delta.  It's kind of a having thousands of 3-body problems, the result of each one, then resulting in a new 3-body problem ( metaphor).  What looks like cause and effect, may in fact be more synergistic - sort of where your intimating.   What I'm saying above is kind of lineary cause and effect, then casting an allusion. 

It's all conjecture.   

Part of the problem is that there really aren't discrete boundaries between these systems.  The do effect one another, while also heating differentially both among themselves, but wrt one another in a "quasi" coupled way.   The devil lurks in Quasi

Anyway, getting into the details of how/why?   good luck.   But I do suspect that thermal memory, which is coherently observed in Quantum Mechanics and nature and ...basically reality, plays a role there. 

And I don't disagree with the notion that heat dispersion mechanics out of the tropics plays a role in wave mechanics at mid latitudes.   

[so_whats_happening]

It is just gross outside 93/76 should hit 98 today and 99 tomorrow.