2025-2026 ENSO

[George001]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Unhinged isn’t the word. That was psychotic. Completely mental. Wishing death and suicide on people over the weather. I seriously hope he gets the psychiatric help he obviously, desperately needs

Over the weather…. You suck as a human being, but you are smarter than that. You damn well know this is about more than just weather, it’s about how you treat people. You have a superiority complex and put kind hearted people who yes do wishcast a bit down and call them stupid. Fuck you

[George001]

On 11/19/2025 at 5:59 PM, snowman19 said:

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

Once again I will say… yes, I am an asshole but I am right about you. At least I am trying to be better by only being that way to people who deserve it

[rclab]

57 minutes ago, George001 said:

All you do is predict warm and you happen to be right more often than not because AGW. There are objective posters here (eg Don). You are not one of them. I have never seen you predict a cold and snowy pattern once in my time on this board. You have 0 ground to stand on and are a massive hypocrite bitching about people who are “biased” towards cold and snow while you are doing the same thing with warmth.

 

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Hi! Was wondering where you went, since it seems like you, qg_omega, and co go mia every time there's a snow or cold threat. 

Speaking of which, hope you enjoy the snow tomorrow. Seems like you and areas to your south near NYC are game for an appreciable December snowfall.

 

1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There is another one coming 

Keep trolling

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just keep predicting it like you always do, you’ll get it right eventually! Then when the inevitable one hits, take credit for your great forecast! “I called it!” All you ever do is predict major cold and major snow, MJO phase 8, SSWE’s, big SPV disruptions, huge blocking and how La Niña is going to fall apart, winter after winter. And since 2022-23, you have been failing miserably with the lone exception of last winter’s cold. You were “right” by default. Then you attack me 

 

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve actually admitted my bias several times, maybe you have reading comprehension problems or memory issues? Others remind me of it all the time too. And nice language by the way in your previous post. Dropping f-bombs will really get your point across. How low class

 

42 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok i want snow as much as the next guy but you gotta check yourself dude this is absolutely unhinged. @snowman19i don't agree with your wx outlook all the time but you don't deserve a reply like this...

 

33 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

you do realize we're on the internet right. im sure @snowman19is a wonderful human irl and his words on this site should be taken light-heartedly at most. 

and he didn't even come at you and his reply to your post was pretty mellow... you clearly need to reevaluate your choice of words. we're all adults and we're here to speak about weather. not personal beefs. 

 

 

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unhinged isn’t the word. That was psychotic. Completely mental. Truly terrifying. Wishing death and suicide on people over the weather. I seriously hope he gets the psychiatric help he obviously, desperately needs

 

25 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

for real. its never EVER that serious, sorry that he went off on you

Perhaps what comes, to whatever depth, tonight …. Will be medicinal. With caring hope for all, as always ….

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 In the interest of showing objectivity, I expect the 12Z Euro, which is about to be released, to not be as cold as the 0Z that I posted 3 temp anom maps from. But the overall trends toward not as warm, more CAD, and instability of models within just a week seems real to me and tells me not to bet the farm at least yet on a mainly mild 12/18-31 mid-Atlantic south like has been suggested by ens. means. We’ll see.

Edit for 12:55 update on 12Z Euro vs 0Z:

-12/20 map not quite as cold but still BN

-12/22 and 12/25 maps much warmer

—————

I expected this because 0Z was such a cold run and thus appeared to go too far. But regardless, 12/20 is overall still trending colder in model consensus and models remain unstable telling me to not bet too heavily on late month mild domination.

 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

If my post about the -NAO was part of the issue, I'm sorry if you took it the wrong way. I wasn't trying to deny the fact it would warm up for the East Coast later in the month, I was just trying to figure out why models might be trending slightly colder for that period.