2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year.

Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

But the NAO has been negative every October since 2019.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1955, 1998, and 1999 would have been great analogs if we had a 175-185 ACE season and a strong la nina. We obviously do not have that this year, but for fun, I will do this run:

 

 

Yea, that was a blast-

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year.

Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

 

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time 

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that.

I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But the NAO has been negative every October since 2019.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah.. the La Nina is just about no more on the latest TAO/Triton subsurface. I think the N. Pacific pattern is more based on the ENSO subsurface near the thermocline, so I personally wouldn't use La Nina analogs for this Winter. 96-97 is a good example of negative-neutral ENSO with warmer water starting to develop in the subsurface. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah.. the La Nina is just about no more on the latest TAO/Triton subsurface. I think the N. Pacific pattern is more based on the ENSO subsurface near the thermocline, so I personally wouldn't use La Nina analogs for this Winter. 96-97 is a good example of negative-neutral ENSO with warmer water starting to develop in the subsurface. 

Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface.

1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2014 is about the best QBO analog I have ever seen, but I didn't factor it in because it was warm ENSO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface.

1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.

It's trending where there might be no cold water in a few weeks.. let's see how that goes. In the last few weeks it has warmed significantly, and that is the trend right now. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2014 is about the best QBO analog I have ever seen, but I didn't factor it in because it was warm ENSO.

2005 is pretty good. 1989. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's trending where there might be no cold water in a few weeks.. let's see how that goes. In the last few weeks it has warmed significantly, and that is the trend right now. 

We'll see, but the western ENSO flank has been devoid of a cold pool all summer. I don't see the erosion east.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see, but the western ENSO flank has been devoid of a cold pool all summer. I don't see the erosion east.

In the last day +0c has hit 140W. That is significant. The central area is most important for N. Pacific H5 correlation. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

See how we are getting this +PNA over the next few weeks now that the ENSO subsurface has neutralized? It's not perfect but more times than not how it fluxes connects with PNA (Kelvin/Rossby waves). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the last day +0c has hit 140W. That is significant. The central area is most important for N. Pacific H5 correlation. 

Yea, going to have to watch it...but I think incorporating cool ENSO for a least the first chunk of the season is safe....there is a bit of a lag, too.

I think 2012 may be a decent anti-log in this respect....if you look, the cool subsurface worked in from the west and decimated a developing warm ENSO, however, that season still went onto have some warm ENSO characteristics in terms of sensible weather. However, it did have more of a cool ENSO like Aleutian ridge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

See how we are getting this +PNA over the next few weeks now that the ENSO subsurface has neutralized? It's not perfect but more times than not how it fluxes connects with PNA (Kelvin/Rossby waves). 

Yea, I don't expect a deeply negative RNA this season...never have.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Chuck, I feel like eliminating cool ENSO analogs is a bit drastic and restrictive....I mean, I understand incorporating some ENSO neutral years and maybe even some weaker warm ENSO, but it's not like there is a furnace beneath 3.4, either. Not to mention the overall base state of the hemisphere given the west warm pool.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chuck, I feel like eliminating cool ENSO analogs is a bit drastic....I mean, I understand incorporating some ENSO neutral years and maybe even some weaker warm ENSO, but it's not like there is a furnace beneath 3.4, either.

Yeah part of it too is that we haven't seen anything La Nina like in the N. Pacific this year. It's acting Neutral ENSO. 

Also, the subsurface moves up and down a lot in a short period of time.. remember how I was congratulating Gawx for La Nina calls because the subsurface had made it <-5? Now it's come all the way up to 0! Depending on MJO waves and gravity waves, it moves around a lot.. I don't necessarily know that it won't turn negative again, as that is the base long term state right now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah part of it too is that we haven't seen anything La Nina like in the N. Pacific this year. It's acting Neutral ENSO. 

Also, the subsurface moves up and down a lot in a short period of time.. remember how I was congratulating Gawx for La Nina calls because the subsurface had made it <-5? Now it's come all the way up to 0! Depending on MJO waves and gravity waves, it moves around a lot.. I don't necessarily know that it won't turn negative again, as that is the base long term state right now. 

Yes, well remember that we HAVE been ENSO neutral...in conjunction with the atmospheric lag given that the RONI just eclipsed -.50 this month, that seems par for the course to me. I wouldn't count out some cool ENSO like windows this season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, well remember that we HAVE been ENSO neutral...in conjunction with the atmospheric lag given that the RONI just eclipsed -.50 this month, that seems par for the course to me. I wouldn't count out some cool ENSO like windows this season.

RONI does have 2-3x more impact on the pattern in the cold season. I'm really curious if we get more La Nina tendencies this cold season, seemingly out of nowhere, as that's what a few things seem to suggest. I'm not sold on it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

RONI does have 2-3x more impact on the pattern in the cold season. I'm really curious if we get more La Nina tendencies this cold season, seemingly out of nowhere, as that's what a few things seem to suggest. I'm not sold on it. 

I think it will be variable with perhaps a slight nod to cooler ENSO like in the DM mean. But I am with you on some considerable +PNA periods. I don't see a 2022 like trough to Baja.

I wouldn't mind a cool ENSO first half with a hand off to more neutral or warm in the second half.....that wouldn't kill me. lol I think given my mid season SSW hedge, we may not see a stock cool ENSO February, anyway.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't expect a deeply negative RNA this season...never have.

I don’t expect a 2022-23 deep RNA either but more -PNA than last winter? Absolutely 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t expect a 2022-23 deep RNA either but more -PNA than last winter? Absolutely 

I think last Winter was the most +PNA on record for a non-El Nino (CPC). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t expect a 2022-23 deep RNA either but more -PNA than last winter? Absolutely 

Oh, of course...last year was extreme.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be variable with perhaps a slight nod to cooler ENSO like in the DM mean. But I am with you on some considerable +PNA periods. I don't see a 2022 like trough to Baja.

I wouldn't mind a cool ENSO first half with a hand off to more neutral or warm in the second half.....that wouldn't kill me. lol I think given my mid season SSW hedge, we may not see a stock cool ENSO February, anyway.

I think this Winter might just act ENSO Neutral.. a lot of different patterns. I do think we'll see more +NAO but probably more -AO. December has this high coincidence being very, very cold in neutral-negative ENSO/deep -QBO. I want to see if that coincidence persists this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I don't expect ton of snow, probably less than 1995-1996

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think this Winter might just act ENSO Neutral.. a lot of different patterns. I do think we'll see more +NAO but probably more -AO. December has this high coincidence being very, very cold in neutral-negative ENSO/deep -QBO. I want to see if that coincidence persists this year. 

Agree. I also think we may get out of the gates quickly.