2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh okay thanks 40/70 benchmark good to know

Nothing they say is outlandish or patently incorrect.....but IMHO, they tend to seek avenues to cold/snow. For instance, notice they make no mention of being near or just after solar max, which is a pretty strong counter argument to the presented evidence for a very weak PV. I found the info about specific areas of sea ice favoring weaker (stronger) PV interesting...the QBO relationship is common sense amongsts weather circles, but I really didn't care for the weak cool ENSO/weak polar vortex association....that speaks more to how strongly intense cool ENSO events favor a stronger PV IMHO....weaker ENSO just means that other extra tropical influences will drive the bus.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

 However, the CSU downgrade was from a very active 155 ACE down to 140. IF an ~140 ACE were to verify, that would still be slightly above the 1991-2020 active period’s 122 avg.

[snowman19]

 However, the CSU downgrade was from a very active 155 ACE down to 140. IF an ~140 ACE were to verify, that would still be slightly above the 1991-2020 active period’s 122 avg.

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Yeah, they need to like cut that 140 ACE in half. It's shaping up to be a low activity season, like 2013 and 2014. This was my forecast in mid-June:

11 named storms (range 8-14)

4 hurricanes (range 2-6)

1 major hurricane (range 0-2)

51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

 

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, they need to like cut that 140 ACE in half. It's shaping up to be a low activity season, like 2013 and 2014. This was my forecast in mid-June:

11 named storms (range 8-14)

4 hurricanes (range 2-6)

1 major hurricane (range 0-2)

51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

I think you guys need to be leery of a late surge in ace from intense home brew and/or GOM systems...it can catch up quickly, though it is tougher without the long-trackers. When a system does encounter a favorable upper level pocket, the entire basin is undisturbed....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll def take the over on Phily's numbers.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll def take the over on Phily's numbers.

 Since the current active era started in 1995, the only seasons pretty comparable to the bearishness of his #s are all either El Niño seasons or the cold neutral ENSO season of 2013.

 (My seasonal contest forecast is calling for 14/9/3 with ACE of 139 fwiw.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Since the current active era started in 1995, the only seasons pretty comparable to the bearishness of his #s are all either El Niño seasons or the cold neutral ENSO season of 2013.

 (My seasonal contest forecast is calling for 14/9/3 with ACE of 139 fwiw.)

I think he strongly favors a 2013-2014 like impending winter season and is thus basically rip and reading the 2013 troipical output. I think there already is and is going to be a more established cool ENSO pardigm than evident that year.

[snowman19]

I think he strongly favors a 2013-2014 like impending winter season and is thus basically rip and reading the 2013 troipical output. I think there already is and is going to be a more established cool ENSO pardigm than evident that year.

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

Yea, I expect a step back from last year in the extra tropical Pacific before a more concerted and consistent recovery takes place, thereafter.

[GaWx]

Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward)

BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5)

JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4)

CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!)

UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(did great 2 years ago but last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND)

————

So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for ONI low point this fall/winter of ~-0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of -0.6 to -0.9.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

July Euro seasonal forecast for NDJ (that's as far out as I saw it go)

[GaWx]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

July Euro seasonal forecast for NDJ (that's as far out as I saw it go)

Implies SE ridge dominance?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Implies SE ridge dominance?

All seasonal models seem to have a strong -PNA despite Neutral ENSO.. for the 2nd year in a row. Last year they were pretty far off though (for DJF). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Anyway.. check out this +AO. Getting light purple on this map, almost hitting the Polar Vortex, in mid-July is pretty rare. It's 5200dm over northern Canada. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing they say is outlandish or patently incorrect.....but IMHO, they tend to seek avenues to cold/snow. For instance, notice they make no mention of being near or just after solar max, which is a pretty strong counter argument to the presented evidence for a very weak PV. I found the info about specific areas of sea ice favoring weaker (stronger) PV interesting...the QBO relationship is common sense amongsts weather circles, but I really didn't care for the weak cool ENSO/weak polar vortex association....that speaks more to how strongly intense cool ENSO events favor a stronger PV IMHO....weaker ENSO just means that other extra tropical influences will drive the bus.

ah okay thank you but not exactly sure what all that would mean though sorry

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It might actually warm up a bit in Nino 1+2 in the coming months:

Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)?

no

Slight opposite correlation actually

pretty strong +anomaly correlation over Indonesia and the Philippines 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)?

no

Slight opposite correlation actually

The Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino for pretty much the last 2 years, ever since the 2023-24 strong el nino started in the summer of 2023.

If we were to get a strong or super el nino in ENSO 3.4, the Nino 1+2 is going to really go off the chart like in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino for pretty much the last 2 years, ever since the 2023-24 strong el nino started in the summer of 2023.

If we were to get a strong or super el nino in ENSO 3.4, the Nino 1+2 is going to really go off the chart like in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

That's probably right.. it goes with stabilization of the Earth system.. normal is much colder water than north or south, so a stabilization of the tropical equilateral is strong El Nino. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

apparently 2023 and 2024 classified as a super el nino according to some sources and further looking it up but others saying it was a strong el nino

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

apparently 2023 and 2024 classified as a super el nino according to some sources and further looking it up but others saying it was a strong el nino

+1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super)

+1.50 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha thank you gawx

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

+1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super)

~+1.47 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)

The main effect of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere is the North Pacific High

It had a "Moderate" effect on the cold season NOI.. so closer to the RONI/MEI

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

ah okay thank you but not exactly sure what all that would mean though sorry

Which part do you want me to elaborate on?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It might actually warm up a bit in Nino 1+2 in the coming months:

Does a warmer late Summer eastern ENSO region (Nino 1+2) precede an El Nino the following year (26-27)?

no

Slight opposite correlation actually

pretty strong +anomaly correlation over Indonesia and the Philippines 

It's safe to say everything correlates to La Niña in this "new, warmer climate".

[KakashiHatake2000]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which part do you want me to elaborate on?

i dont really understand all of it to be honest and dont really know what it would bring either but i appreciate your explanation from earlier though

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's safe to say everything correlates to La Niña in this "new, warmer climate".

The frequency of La Nina's 1998-2025 is actually an anomaly in the global warming. Earth patterns were suppose to relax, or stabilize, which is default El Nino state. 

Check it out.. all warm

cold

 

The La Nina Standard Deviation in the last 27 years is about negative 4-5 sigma. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Big time ridge NE of Japan in the +4-7 Day. In the last few years we've been seeing these Summer H5 anomalies, touching 6000dm, in areas that already had very anomalous +SSTs.