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TV Severe Weather2025-?


jaxjagman
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Appears that the first third of March could be active for severe. We have a remarkable signal for west trough and east ridge, with a strong jet stream driven by the still cold Arctic. SPC already has Wednesday in their Day 6, and that's probably just the beginning. Sometimes it's easier to infer long-range things from the heavy rain outlook(s).
Grey flooding is pretty much the 3-7 day outlook from WPC, but this is the long-range from CPC. Period below could feature record high temps from the Mid-South through Tennessee to the Mid-Atlantic. Heights look particularly anomalous over the Mid-Atlantic. Less extreme heights over the Mid-South with still near record surface temps could open the door for severe. 
Surace details are always TBD, especially a week out. In this situation one can be more confident than usual about week two moisture with the temps (CAPE) thanks to pattern recognition. Several troughs pass without driving the surface front south. That's a recipe for building moisture. 
All that said, those severe weather anxious should not worry 10 days out. Storm chasers though, need to get ready to roll. Both can be true. Chance of one place being hit is low. Chasers can go to the forecast area though.
My spring mode is activated.
image.png.eb835ed158b63c56517e5e5988e9499b.png

I’m not sure severe (legit severe) is gonna make it east of Little Rock with the troughs getting kicked out. It’s crazy to think we are working with 80 degree temps and a large open warm sector during the first of March but our but our trough is headed towards Toronto.


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Good to see more severe weather interst this season. Not everyone digs it, but a few of us are down!

If Tuesday gets going in the Southern Plains and Ozarks then pattern recognition calls for sloppy seconds our way. See Day 7 a few posts back for Tuesday.

More recent quoted 8-14 day post is six days old and the chart is way out of date. Heavy precip made it into the WPC 3-7 day but no severe.

Next Wednesday Mar. 11 the the door is open for continuing severe, even if no new development. Continuing is of course a messy outcome. Alas, it could all just be heavy rain. See below. Their hatched flood risk has not changed much for the Mid-South (just expanded) since the flooding hatch is a hybrid River and snow melt outlook too.

CPC chart from Wed. Mar. 4

image.png.03406a411a486ad09a2c41900e96355c.png

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