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Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations


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possible tornado by Jersey Village TX (Houston area)

Quote

Montgomery TX-Harris TX-
128 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 128 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Jersey Village,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

 

 

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Today will really kncok down the monthly average, but it should still up being a top 5 (if not top 3) warmest November on record for DFW.

In addition, on the heels of 2024 which was the 3rd warmest Autumn on record for DFW, 2025 id on track for a top 5 or top 3 warmest Autumn as well.

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On 11/30/2025 at 2:32 PM, Powerball said:

Today will really kncok down the monthly average, but it should still up being a top 5 (if not top 3) warmest November on record for DFW.

In addition, on the heels of 2024 which was the 3rd warmest Autumn on record for DFW, 2025 id on track for a top 5 or top 3 warmest Autumn as well.

 

Officially at DFW, November 2025 will tie for the 4th warmest on record while the 2025 Fall will tie for the 2nd warmest on record.

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Euro & GFS have been consistent on this since last week, on 2+ in. precipitable water values (way above normal in December) near/over the coast. Starting late today ahead of the next SS trough out west and typical responding coastal Low pattern. Already above 1.5 in. PW on Brownsville UA 12z obs early this morning.

I'll be danged if we still have this late spring/early fall type moisture depth around the coastal region later this month or beginning of 2026. Especially with a warming ENSO (into EN territory) trend now back in the cards..

CPC actually turned out to be right about the formidable ongoing phase 7/8 MJO "destructively" interfering with the typical warm/dry LN pattern, on their week 3-4 outlook discussion (in early November).

IMG_8682.thumb.png.59b4385ac466efbdd11d91599ee444cc.png

IMG_8683.thumb.png.0ef8dc87a1a1b4d879509c466db1c59e.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hail threat (once again this ongoing cool season), looks to return to STX and coastal region tomorrow night (16th). Some severe hail is not out of question inland. Even if storms stay elevated. There was some embedded supercellular structures with hail cores in an MCC that actually separated into 2 opposite moving clusters not far off the coast last Friday night.

The models (not too surprisingly) have been somewhat downplaying convective instability and moisture parameters lately around here. And the incoming mid-upper trough out west that SPC claims to be "weak" last night on D2 outlook has not appeared to be so on Euro since over a week ago. With even H5 flow still possibly going over 30 knots later tomorrow.

12z and 18z HRRR runs today now are also showing fairly stout 850mb southerly WAA flow potentially over 40 knots tomorrow as well. And even a split-jet flow regime moving over the state, tomorrow night (on Euro also). Which typically induces even more support for lift & dynamics aloft ahead of it.

IMG_8957.thumb.png.489c348759eb77ae944b5a3b0a53e4f6.png

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