2025 foothills Thread

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Not sure but I can tell you the same conversations were being had right before Superstorm 1993. 

Yes that was a less snowy period, and so was the late 90s but this one is the longest lasting here at least. Since 2019 we have had 1 winter storm that met warning criteria.

[BooneWX]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

As I perused through NCDC data, NC State data and Webber weather data, I noticed a lot.

1. We used to get a lot more small events per year. 2 to 4 inch snow/mix storms happened 2 to 4 times per year most winters. 

2. Its now feast or famine. Really since 2010, its either been big snowstorm or nothing. Very few 2 to 4 inch type storms in the past 15 years. 

3. There is no true set of conditions that will lead to snow for us. MJO, NAO, PNA, QBO, AO? Of course if all of these are optimal that helps but some of our best storms have occurred in the "bad" phases of each.

 

In my amateur opinion, something isn't right with the atmosphere in relation to snow across most of our area. 

Is it because of the solar max?

Is it because of the warmer oceans?

Is it because of the crazy Active Pacific?

Arctic Sea ice? 

Global warming? Too many cows farting in the Midwest?

 

I'm not completely sure but I do know it takes absolute perfect conditions for it to snow here now. 

 

 

 

All of the above, some weighing on winter more than others at various points. Hot tub temps in the Gulf have certainly made things a challenge, evident in the shift of tornado frequency from the plains to the Deep South. Im on the fence for arctic sea ice/high latitude snow cover. It helps but we’ve had some seriously strong cold outbreaks through the 2000s and they rarely mean anything other than nose bleeds and pipes bursting. This is why I’m not the least bit bullish with the Barney cold showing up on some of the ensembles. It’s useless. Great to have cold on your side of the hemisphere, sure, but if we’re talking about an air mass that would produce temps in the low 30s with full sunlight, those storms will be raining on Cuba. 

[Ernest T Bass]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

As I perused through NCDC data, NC State data and Webber weather data, I noticed a lot.

1. We used to get a lot more small events per year. 2 to 4 inch snow/mix storms happened 2 to 4 times per year most winters. 

2. Its now feast or famine. Really since 2010, its either been big snowstorm or nothing. Very few 2 to 4 inch type storms in the past 15 years. 

3. There is no true set of conditions that will lead to snow for us. MJO, NAO, PNA, QBO, AO? Of course if all of these are optimal that helps but some of our best storms have occurred in the "bad" phases of each.

 

In my amateur opinion, something isn't right with the atmosphere in relation to snow across most of our area. 

Is it because of the solar max?

Is it because of the warmer oceans?

Is it because of the crazy Active Pacific?

Arctic Sea ice? 

Global warming? Too many cows farting in the Midwest?

 

I'm not completely sure but I do know it takes absolute perfect conditions for it to snow here now. 

 

 

 

It's interesting because I was thinking about the winters of the late 70's and 80's, and one of the things I recalled was a lot more small events.  Also ice storms or icing events were common. I remember as a kid; older folks complaining that we never got good snows anymore; we just always got ice or a mix.  But for sure we had some really good winters.  Another thing I recall is being told not to look much for snow before Christmas and looking back we didn't have much snow prior to January.  That's anecdotal but I think I saw a post yesterday that showed that.   It's odd because even though the last 25 years have overall not been good, we have had some nice December snows.  

Anyway, I don't know what any of it means, but I do think we go through cycles and longer patterns.  Anyway, I'd like to order another 86-87 winter but would also take a 2009-10.

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, Ernest T Bass said:

It's interesting because I was thinking about the winters of the late 70's and 80's, and one of the things I recalled was a lot more small events.  Also ice storms or icing events were common. I remember as a kid; older folks complaining that we never got good snows anymore; we just always got ice or a mix.  But for sure we had some really good winters.  Another thing I recall is being told not to look much for snow before Christmas and looking back we didn't have much snow prior to January.  That's anecdotal but I think I saw a post yesterday that showed that.   It's odd because even though the last 25 years have overall not been good, we have had some nice December snows.  

Anyway, I don't know what any of it means, but I do think we go through cycles and longer patterns.  Anyway, I'd like to order another 86-87 winter but would also take a 2009-10.

Yep 3 of our 6 biggest December snows the past century have been in the past 16 years

[wncsnow]

Had a few sprinkles. Its 41.

[WiseWeather]

Down to 41… guess i better go prep the snowblower.


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[strongwxnc]

37.8 with .19’ so far.


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[strongwxnc]

With this almost out of the way the next 10 days look normal to below normal for highs.
Least it’s not hot …


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[BooneWX]

12 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

With this almost out of the way the next 10 days look normal to below normal for highs.
Least it’s not hot …


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Festive feeling indeed. Some extreme cold trying to pop up in the long range.

[wncsnow]

 

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Festive feeling indeed. Some extreme cold trying to pop up in the long range.

Like you have said, it could be too much of a good thing. Reminds me of a couple winters ago when it got almost record cold around Christmas then the rest of the winter was a torch.

[strongwxnc]

Just now, wncsnow said:

 

Like you have said, it could be too much of a good thing. Reminds me of a couple winters ago when it got almost record cold around Christmas then the rest of the winter was a torch.

Law of averages for sure. I was thinking about that this morning. 

 

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Like you have said, it could be too much of a good thing. Reminds me of a couple winters ago when it got almost record cold around Christmas then the rest of the winter was a torch.

Yep. It doesn’t make me bullish. I’d rather maintain this slightly below average pattern we’ve got rn and hope for an anchored high to deliver the goods. I don’t think anyone outside of the mountains should be rooting for the PV split and historic cold dump.

[mercurydime]

Can you call it a bust even when you didn't expect anything? Asking for a friend.  

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, mercurydime said:

Can you call it a bust even when you didn't expect anything? Asking for a friend.  

I need a shortwave that hits negative tilt in Alabama with a surface low tracking just inland. Gonna speak it into existence. 

[strongwxnc]

I need a shortwave that hits negative tilt in Alabama with a surface low going tracking just inland. Gonna speak it into existence. 

Sounds about right. Just crawls slowly up and pivots at the right time


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[WNC_Fort]

I need a Dec 18 2009 or Dec 25 2010 or a Dec 9 2018 again. 

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I need a Dec 18 2009 or Dec 25 2010 or a Dec 9 2018 again. 

That 2009 event is so underrated. One of my all time favorites.

[WiseWeather]

That 2009 event is so underrated. One of my all time favorites.

I was in high school… i remember walking out of school that day at 9am to a whiteout. Most of my friends put their cars in ditches that day… but somehow i drove my Chevy Lumnia from South all the way to the otherside of Dudley.


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[wncsnow]

2009 I was in VA Beach at college/with my ex gf and missed it unfortunately. 

2010 Christmas storm was nice. Last big snow we had I got to enjoy with my mom. 

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

2009 I was in VA Beach at college/with my ex gf and missed it unfortunately. 

2010 Christmas storm was nice. Last big snow we had I got to enjoy with my mom. 

Old Dominion? Do we have a Monarch in this chat?!

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

I was in high school… i remember walking out of school that day at 9am to a whiteout. Most of my friends put their cars in ditches that day… but somehow i drove my Chevy Lumnia from South all the way to the otherside of Dudley.


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I was in high school too. I remember getting out early that day. We had a family Christmas gathering that night and still went. We passed dozens of cars stalled out in the main roadways - no plows could keep up. I also recall it being bitterly cold after that snow and school basically got canceled an extra 3-4 days before winter break. Magical time! Freed up some 1 am evenings with the boys playing call of duty lol.

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Old Dominion? Do we have a Monarch in this chat?!

No, but they were in my final 3 lol. I'm actually a marlin of Virginia Wesleyan University. Sadly, we are changing names soon because of a rich donor. 

[WiseWeather]

Best memories i have were from the 2010 Christmas storm…. I remember skiing in the yard Christmas night and my Nanny was watching me from the window. We cancelled our family Christmas party that night and a month later she was gone… but ill never forget her sitting behind that window watching me out there like a little kid. Fuck Cancer.




Next best one i remember was January 2022… i remember the local mets were calling for 1-3 inches and i went to bed that night thinking we wernt going to get much…. I woke up to 8 inches and played all day in the snow with my kids and wife.




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[WiseWeather]

Another one December 2018… ive never seen anything like it… probably never will again


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[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Best memories i have were from the 2010 Christmas storm…. I remember skiing in the yard Christmas night and my Nanny was watching me from the window. We cancelled our family Christmas party that night and a month later she was gone… but ill never forget her sitting behind that window watching me out there like a little kid. Fuck Cancer.




Next best one i remember was January 2022… i remember the local mets were calling for 1-3 inches and i went to bed that night thinking we wernt going to get much…. I woke up to 8 inches and played all day in the snow with my kids and wife.




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Great story. Fuck cancer indeed- it took my mom in 2014. 

[WXNewton]

47 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I need a Dec 18 2009 or Dec 25 2010 or a Dec 9 2018 again. 

Jan 29-30 2010 was a great event too, I called that the T-storm. As the low dug across the south the moisture formed the perfect t shape configuration. 

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Jan 29-30 2010 was a great event too, I called that the T-storm. As the low dig across the south the moisture formed the perfect t shape configuration. 

We had close to 30 inches of snow that winter. It snowed from 4 or 5 separate events including Dec 2009 and Jan 29/30, 2010. 

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Another one December 2018… ive never seen anything like it… probably never will again


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That was a great storm! I remember riding around with my brother that night and the snow/sleet line was setup right through Newton. North side of town it was hammering and then on the south side was some of the hardest falling sleet I've ever seen. About day break there was a band that moved through and in 2 hrs we went from 7-8 inches of snow/sleet to about 11"-12", on the ground. 

[BooneWX]

Dec 2018 (above) will be hard to replicate but 4 years earlier is still the goat for me. That Valentines storm in 2014, I was living in Mt. Airy and day 1 was cool but as the storm was departing, we got under that upper level death band and watched us eclipse day 1 totals in a quarter of the time. By far the heaviest snow I’ve ever witnessed. Believe we came close to 20”.


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[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Dec 2018 (above) will be hard to replicate but 4 years earlier is still the goat for me. That Valentines storm in 2014, I was living in Mt. Airy and day 1 was cool but as the storm was departing, we got under that upper level death band and watched us eclipse day 1 totals in a quarter of the time. By far the heaviest snow I’ve ever witnessed. Believe we came close to 20”.


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The radar of that upper level energy pivoting through was something else! Definitely the best two part system of recent memory. I lived in Maiden at the time and we only had 4-5 inches out of day one, turned to sleet that night and the next morning we picked up 6"+ out of the upper low in about 4-5 hrs. Great storm!