2025 forecast contests -- enter for July 2025 contest (deadline 06z July 1st)

[Roger Smith]

 

June scoring is updated in post before previous post (wxdude64 July forecast already entered). 

If this wraps on your screen, try a lower magnification setting. 90% works for me, 100% wraps.

 

 

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-June 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

 

 

FORECASTER ______DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS

 

Tom ___________________ 401 _438 _474 __1313 __364 _428 _386 __1178 _2491 __446 _416 _390__1252___3743

___ Consensus ______ 381 _420 _444__1245__354 _474 _372_1200 _2445 _385 _410_460__1255___3700

hudsonvalley21 _______ 367 _434 _482 __1283 __302 _462 _387__1151__2434 __402 _402 _448__1252 ___3686

so_whats_happening __415 _448 _408 __1271 __338 _490 _349 __1177__2448 __348 _340 _458__ 1146 ___ 3594

RJay __________________ 366 _445 _ 463__1274 __392 _486 _370__1248 _2522__333 _319 _363__ 1015___ 3537

Scotty Lightning _______422 _428 _390 __1240 __279 _354 _392 __1025 _2265 __347 _470 _440__1257 ___3522

wxallannj ______________ 331 _368 _410 __ 1109 __ 346 _398 _364 __1108 _2217 __416 _408 _437__ 1261 ___3478

BKViking ______________ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __ 398 _396 _419__1213 ___3459

wxdude64 _____________340 _370 _390 __1200 __266_ 414 _330 __1010 _ 2210 __387 _390 _440__1217 ___3427

DonSutherland1 _______313 _362 _404 __1079 __342 _422 _334 __1098 _2177 __ 403 _368 _472__ 1243 ___3420

StormchaserChuck ___ 389 _394 _408 __1191 __244 _466 _ 279 __989 _ 2180 __ 379 _372 _393__1144 ___3324

RodneyS ______________ 366 _378 _414 __1158 __256 _352 _324 __932 _ 2090 __ 317 _374 _534__1225 ___ 3315

Roger Smith ___________326 _366 _386 __1078  __360 _408 _332 __1100 _2178 __244 _346 _421__ 1011 ___3189

___ Normal _____________328 _378 _384 __1090 __270 _244 _ 187 __ 701__1791__368 _370 _440__ 1178 ___2969

maxim (2/6) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298__ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 3333

Persistence _____________200 _294 _406 __ 900 ___138 _268 _296 __ 702 _1602 __224 _282 _354 __ 860 ____2462

____________________________
________________________________

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 tied for best score

________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun

___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0  __ 0 __ 1  __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___0

hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2^__2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0

so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0

RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 0 __ 1^ __ 2 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0

Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0

wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0

BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0

wxdude64 ______________1 __ 1 __ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____1 _ Jan

Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr

RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____1 _ May

Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 __ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb

___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

==============================

odd distribution of contest wins, 4/6 go to last four of five regular entrants in total scoring. (two to top scorer Tom)

 

Extreme forecasts  

So far, 31 of 54 ... 16 for warmest and 15 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1

 

Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

 

Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0

Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0

Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___5-2 ___ 4.5 - 2.0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0

Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0

___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 __ 3-2 ____ 3.0 - 2.0

maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0

Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0

RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0

so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0 __2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0

wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0

BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

 

=========================================================

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

 

July 2025

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+ 1.3    +1.8    +2.1      +2.1    +0.6   +0.4      +2.1    +2.2   +0.9

[Scotty Lightning]

July

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5        1.5      1.0          1.0       1.5    2.0        1.0      2.0      1.0

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.5

 

NYC: +2.5

 

BOS: +2.5

 

ORD: +2.5

 

ATL: +2.0

 

IAH: +2.0

 

DEN: +2.0

 

PHX: +2.0

 

SEA: +0.5

[wxallannj]

July

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.2       2.3     2.5         2.2       1.7     2.5        1.6      0.2      1.8

[Roger Smith]

 

+1.7 __ +1.5 __ +1.3 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +0.3 __ +1.5 __ +0.7

June scoring is back in thread, everyone did well so there won't be big changes in the annual scoring race which I will update in another "back in thread" post set aside to take on that work (before all July forecasts except wxdude64's early submission) ...

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5       1.5     1.5        1.5       1.5     0.5        0.3      1.2      2.4

[so_whats_happening]

July

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+ 1.5    +1.6    +2.1      +1.8    +0.8   +0.4      +.2      +.9     +2

May change a little later but Ill make a note if it does.

Edit: Only raised up SEA

[Tom]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.6

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +1.4

SEA: +0.8

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.2    0.4      0.8         0.4    -0.3     1.7         1.5      0. 1     0.8

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.9        1.9       1.9         1.5      1.2       1.3         2.0     2.3     3.2

[Roger Smith]

Calling all Vikings. ... Just polishing up the scoring for June and going into the update of annual scoring but I can see from how close the June scores are to each other that there cannot be huge changes in the annual contest, and basically, it's looking very competitive especially given the fact that previous years' usual leaders are a little back of the current leaders. I suspect it's going to be a fully-engaged battle for the title this year (if anyone cares about it that much). 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. 

I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain. 

[Roger Smith]

It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring. 

This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD). 

Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread!