2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th

-The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0

-But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others

-The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0

-Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th

-So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted

Who is on the fence? I have a prediction in the contest thread and have consistently said I think it’ll be AN. Most years you don’t get everything aligned go be 100% confident of an outcome. That doesn’t mean you can’t point contradictory signals out. Try harder. 

let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier

We disagree here. No surprise. 

the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom

 I literally said we can and will still get majors with the OHC presentation this year. I predict 4. But if you think 6 is likely in the basin with this look ok. 

you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives

Clearly you’ve never read my peak season forecasts. 

also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit

Wooshhhh

the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on

 

some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point”

Oh so that’s the game. Hype up what’s “coming” and take credit when climo kicks on. News flash: the wave train lights up most of the time in ASO. You’re not telling anybody here that knows anything something new. But then again I’m not a disciple in the Church of Gary. 

cheers

barry out

It’s July. It’s not even training camp or the baseball all star break yet. Take a breath and have some fun my dude lol.

 

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th

-The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0

-But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0

-The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0

-Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th

-So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

 

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic. 

[nvck]

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

barry out

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic. 

 If the last few days of Euro Weeklies were to happen to be right, it would be pretty quiet late July/early Aug. It has much more action in the Pac.

[Silver Meteor]

On 7/10/2025 at 10:35 AM, BarryStantonGBP said:

How do I quote the user then

Lame excuse for plagiarism. 

[GaWx]

Barry,

 So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course:

@BarryStantonGBP

July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024

Aug 4th-10th:

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Barry,

 So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course:

@BarryStantonGBP

July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024

Aug 4th-10th:

I could see that happening

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I am not 100% sure about that, but I don't think you can really compare the two because last year at this time we had two tropical storms and a massive Category 5 Beryl on July 1st in the Carribean.  I am sure in time things could catch up fast, but that will depend on atmospheric conditions and the Sarahann Dust layer.

 

33 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I know we started off big with Beryl, but was just wondering.  Thanks.  Found this year, 1.5

 I recently did an analysis that showed that mid July season to date ACE has little predictive value for remainder of season ACE. Any correlation of season to date ACE for around this time of the season to ACE remaining in the season is minimal. So, it currently being lower than the normal low average ACE to date implies neither low, near average, nor high ACE to come the rest of the season. I’d say the same thing if ACE were currently high like it was in 2024. In other words, it essentially doesn’t tell us much of anything one way or the other.

[Cholorob]

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer
Got it
 
and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.
 
Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 
Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 
 
bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 
the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 
 
but let’s face it
 
that ain’t happening anytime soon 
 
so let me get this straight
 
if you’re not a boomer
your take = permabull
therefore = doesn’t count
 
got it
 
permabull = the guy who’s actually right
meanwhile “bearish” posts
always “models say”—then models flop
every. single. time.
 
it’s always the same
bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months
never fails
they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year
by August or september they’re radio silent
 
when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 
ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 
seriously
 
and the whole “permabull” thing
just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years
but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer
 
newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings
 
bearish = broken model hopium
permabull = actually right
 

Guy, I don’t recall seeing you in the last few years here, but your style and the way you come across in your posts this year is often super combative. Chill out, you can still make your points and be less cringey/disagreeable.


.

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

quote from SaintCategory5Kaiju regarding Andy hazleton

Quote

Interesting post there by Andy I will say.

However....I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I have some questions sort to speak, about this methodology of gaging future hurricane activity. 

For one, we're looking at May-June patterns, so while I'd understand if we were to look at something like July-August or August-September patterns, how does looking at a certain pattern or set of patterns that early in the hurricane season tell us what will happen in August-November, when the bulk of hurricane action usually occurs?

The other point I want to make is, all of those years share more differences than similarities. I understand that Andy is going for a more qualitative comparison and measurement here, but if you look at the individual ACE scores of each season (as well as such combined with hurricane count, major hurricane count, etc.), you're going to get quite the vast array of results. 

Let's take out, as he said, 2002, 2023, and 1986 because of El Nino (which we know tangibly impacts hurricane activity in the Atlantic and which we also know is very unlikely to be applicable this year). 2002 had 67 ACE but two destructive major hurricanes. 1986 was a nothingburger of a season with 36 ACE and no major hurricanes. 2023 had 146 ACE, three major hurricanes (one Category 5), and ended up as the most active traditional El Nino year on record for the Atlantic. 

Now we should probably take out 1985 and 1990 because they occurred during a -AMO period with very cool sst anomalies and a dry Sahel region. Obviously that skews activity toward the more inactive end of things (mind you, for its time, 1985 was quite an active season, with 3 major hurricanes). 

That leaves us with 2001, 2004, 2012, and 2013. If you look at the exact nature of activity in each of those seasons, you'll see that they are so different that you might as well ask if a zebra is the same thing as a penny. But more importantly, I don't think that 2001 and 2012 are good comparisons for this year because they occurred more than 2 years after the preceeding El Nino (if we go by the 2022 hypothesis that being far out from an El Nino brings in some unfavorable factors that somehow cap a season's potential). And even so, they were both near to above average seasons that delivered major, destructive hurricanes. And then there's 2013. Which...I don't think I need to explain why I think it's a horrible comparison, let alone to any year that'll happen anytime soon. I don't want to beat a dead horse.  

My point here is, it's interesting to read about this analysis. I won't lie, it's quite fascinating. But I think in terms of general activity level expectations, there are probably bigger, better known and more reliable mechanisms and factors worth looking at that also are known to have impacts on Atlantic activity, for more or less.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

>Average or below average

INSANE cope

2019 had nothing from now until late August and ended up above average

Quote

#411 by TomballEd » Wed Jul 16, 2025 2:38 pm 

Just a quick look at TS and TC probs for the next month from ECMWF (link below), any activity looks mainly of subtropical origin. The MDR starts showing up in August, for any strength TC, but less than 5% probs of a named system the next 4 weeks anywhere in the MDR into mid-August. I'm thinking a backloaded season, with the chance October is the new September and a chance for a normal or even slightly below normal season compared to 1995-current averages.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Atlantic%20Ocean&base_time=202507150000&intensity=Tropical%20storms&parameter=Forecast&valid_time=202507280000

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

MDR is warming back up

Quote

 

WeatherBoy2000

Category 1

Posts: 346

Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

•  

#412 by WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Jul 16, 2025 4:00 pm 

 

The nino 3.4 region has cratered back to -enso and is at its coolest since mid-May:



This has been paired with significant mdr warming since mid-June:





If these trends continue, it may yield another active late season. One of the talked about analogs for this season is 2001 and that year had no hurricanes until the second week of September but ultimately ended with nine and four majors.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

lol at that change

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

"sToP fEaR mOnGeRiNg"

[BarryStantonGBP]