2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th

-The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0

-But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others

-The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0

-Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th

-So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted

Who is on the fence? I have a prediction in the contest thread and have consistently said I think it’ll be AN. Most years you don’t get everything aligned go be 100% confident of an outcome. That doesn’t mean you can’t point contradictory signals out. Try harder. 

let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier

We disagree here. No surprise. 

the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom

 I literally said we can and will still get majors with the OHC presentation this year. I predict 4. But if you think 6 is likely in the basin with this look ok. 

you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives

Clearly you’ve never read my peak season forecasts. 

also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit

Wooshhhh

the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on

 

some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point”

Oh so that’s the game. Hype up what’s “coming” and take credit when climo kicks on. News flash: the wave train lights up most of the time in ASO. You’re not telling anybody here that knows anything something new. But then again I’m not a disciple in the Church of Gary. 

cheers

barry out

It’s July. It’s not even training camp or the baseball all star break yet. Take a breath and have some fun my dude lol.

 

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th

-The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0

-But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0

-The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0

-Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th

-So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

 

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic. 

[nvck]

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

barry out

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic. 

 If the last few days of Euro Weeklies were to happen to be right, it would be pretty quiet late July/early Aug. It has much more action in the Pac.

[Silver Meteor]

On 7/10/2025 at 10:35 AM, BarryStantonGBP said:

How do I quote the user then

Lame excuse for plagiarism. 

[GaWx]

Barry,

 So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course:

@BarryStantonGBP

July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024

Aug 4th-10th:

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Barry,

 So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course:

@BarryStantonGBP

July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024

Aug 4th-10th:

I could see that happening