LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and too much cooler than 2024: Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. My thoughts too including a gulf storm dragging along the eastern seaboard after a fl landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Wednesday at 02:04 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:04 PM to that one guy on storm2k who predicted 13/6/3: every day is a fine day right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:01 PM Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:23 PM 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again: Seems to have a slight correlation with warming of Atlantic SSTs for peak season Pretty good Indian Ocean warming signal, too. Actually a very uniform map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level winds. This system is expected to move northeastward over the central Atlantic during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 06:12 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:12 PM AL, 90, 2025062218, 01, CARQ, 0, 313N, 576W, 20, 1017, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1019, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 350, 3, INVEST, S, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago lol Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: lol Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question. Tf is a ham sandwich AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N, 5640W, TAFB, SS, I, 5, 1515 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Tf is a ham sandwich AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N, 5640W, TAFB, SS, I, 5, 1515 The ham sandwich may get named: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, GaWx said: The ham sandwich may get named: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The sharks have to watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 hours ago, GaWx said: The ham sandwich may get named: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Looking like shit now 00z CMC has what appears to be a retrograding weak low off of the FL panhandle in about 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Looking like shit now The ham sandwich still has a chance to become a TD through the day but I've got to tell you that it is a real ham: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Hagen —————- Though sheared, the LLC is pretty tight and may allow this to be upgraded to a TD or even TS Andrea later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, GaWx said: The ham sandwich still has a chance to become a TD through the day but I've got to tell you that it is a real ham: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Hagen —————- Though sheared, the LLC is pretty tight and may allow this to be upgraded to a TD or even TS Andrea later today. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite data indicates that the low pressure system located more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains dogshit. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a crappy short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm today or tonight. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter shitty environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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