2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR.

This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR.

This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 

Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg:

But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024:

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24:

But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and too much cooler than 2024:

 

Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR.

This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 

 

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. 

 

My thoughts too including a gulf storm dragging along the eastern seaboard after a fl landfall

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR.

This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 

Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

to that one guy on storm2k who predicted 13/6/3:  

 

every day is a fine day right?

[GaWx]

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

Seems to have a slight correlation with warming of Atlantic SSTs for peak season

Pretty good Indian Ocean warming signal, too. Actually a very uniform map

[BarryStantonGBP]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles east-southeast 
of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 
couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level 
winds. This system is expected to move northeastward over the 
central Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi
    

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

AL, 90, 2025062218, 01, CARQ, 0, 313N, 576W, 20, 1017, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1019, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 350, 3, INVEST, S,

[BarryStantonGBP]

lol 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in 
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles 
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the 
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional 
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to 
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day 
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less 
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for 
further development. Regardless of development, the system is 
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the 
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

lol 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in 
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles 
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the 
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional 
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to 
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day 
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less 
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for 
further development. Regardless of development, the system is 
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the 
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question.

[BarryStantonGBP]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question.

Tf is a ham sandwich 

 

AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N,  5640W, TAFB,  SS,    I, 5, 1515

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Tf is a ham sandwich 

 

 

AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N,  5640W, TAFB,  SS,    I, 5, 1515

 

The ham sandwich may get named:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles 
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates 
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum 
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are 
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and 
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is 
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system 
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, 
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of 
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The ham sandwich may get named:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles 
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates 
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum 
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are 
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and 
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is 
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system 
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, 
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of 
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The sharks have to watch out