LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Monday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:16 PM The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:28 PM 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and too much cooler than 2024: Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Gulf should spin out a few monsters this season. My thoughts too including a gulf storm dragging along the eastern seaboard after a fl landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:51 PM 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The current water temp distribution is screaming low MDR numbers. It’s not just the cooler waters in the MDR itself it’s the warmer waters in the subtropics. This reduces vertical instability and reduces lapse rates in the MDR. This does further my prediction of a home grown season. Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 02:04 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:04 PM to that one guy on storm2k who predicted 13/6/3: every day is a fine day right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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