Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!! 24'-25'

[iluvsnow]

I would say between 2 and 3 inches here in Bellbrook this AM. The intensity between 7 and 8 AM this morning was awesome to say the least. Winding down now....but great start to the season.

[CoachLB]

endless virga?

[dilly84]

NAM juicy for Monday/Tuesday, but consensus seems to be a 3-5" average across Central Ohio. Early season, would definitely take it. 

[vespasian70]

36 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

NAM juicy for Monday/Tuesday, but consensus seems to be a 3-5" average across Central Ohio. Early season, would definitely take it. 

Can't complain about that for the 1st week of December!

[pondo1000]

4.5 inches here in Powell next to the zoo.

[iluvsnow]

Similar here in Bellbrook, southeast of Dayton.....maybe  bit more. I know my back will be aching after shoveling the drive at 6 this morning. But it's all worth it for December snow.

[vespasian70]

Ended up with 5" here in Newark. Not bad for the first snow.

[buckeye]

well this thread was unlucky last year.   Maybe this is it's year, typos and all!

[dilly84]

Another year, another dud for us in Central Ohio so far. I think our best shot is gonna come around mid-february otherwise- maybe a couple 2-3 inchers if we're lucky. Frankly, I'm sick of it. 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Another year, another dud for us in Central Ohio so far. I think our best shot is gonna come around mid-february otherwise- maybe a couple 2-3 inchers if we're lucky. Frankly, I'm sick of it. 

It's been a great winter for Central Ohio. Since 2014, only 2018 saw more to date at Columbus!

 

[dilly84]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's been a great winter for Central Ohio. Since 2014, only 2018 saw more to date at Columbus!

 

Disagree. I couldn't care less if we're above normal when its 1" here and 1" there. That doesn't equate to a good winter. We have had 1 decent snowfall of 5" in November, aside that its been mostly garbage. Do you need further proof than the fact I was the first post here since December 3rd? Lol

[Crowbar]

Nothing sucks more than sunny and bitter cold.  If sunny, then let's be warmer.  If cold, then let's get some snow

[buckeye]

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position

 First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time.  This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun.   Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift.   We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).   

[TimChgo9]

I hope for a bump or two north. Cincy needs some snow. Sun and bitter cold, as mentioned, is not a good combination. 

 

[dilly84]

20 hours ago, buckeye said:

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position

 First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time.  This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun.   Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift.   We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).   

Well it certainly cant go any further south. All but GFS have ticked north a bit. 

[NEOH]

How many times in the past have we been sweating the inevitable NW trend and WTOD. Still a long way to go but good model trends for a widespread snowfall throughout OH. 

[buckeye]

Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow.   That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv.    Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go.    Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro.  That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north.   

No feeling in my gut on this one.   I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution.  All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns).    Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios.   I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod

Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

[buckeye]

39 minutes ago, NEOH said:

How many times in the past have we been sweating the inevitable NW trend and WTOD. Still a long way to go but good model trends for a widespread snowfall throughout OH. 

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend 

[NEOH]

54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend 

This set-up is different than what we've dealt with in the past. What is encouraging to see is the expansive precip shield. The 12z CMC and 00z Euro both hinted at energy hanging back which would be a good scenario.

[dilly84]

Looks like its going to be GFS vs everything else. 

[pondo1000]

Nice to finally have a big one to track here in central Ohio! Looking likely to have first Winter Storm Warning in years. My concern now is cold/dry air winning out & that precip shield getting shunted to the south. Not saying it won’t snow but big snow here still at risk. Ratios should be good but too cold & you get a pixy dust storm. 

[dilly84]

16 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Nice to finally have a big one to track here in central Ohio! Looking likely to have first Winter Storm Warning in years. My concern now is cold/dry air winning out & that precip shield getting shunted to the south. Not saying it won’t snow but big snow here still at risk. Ratios should be good but too cold & you get a pixy dust storm. 

Im opposite. Im more concerned it keeps pushing nw until we get freezing rain/sleet lol. 

[buckeye]

16 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Nice to finally have a big one to track here in central Ohio! Looking likely to have first Winter Storm Warning in years. My concern now is cold/dry air winning out & that precip shield getting shunted to the south. Not saying it won’t snow but big snow here still at risk. Ratios should be good but too cold & you get a pixy dust storm. 

long time no read my friend....   hopefully we can score this

[NEOH]

All good model trends.... can't ask for much more as this point. Much of Ohio is in the game for a significant storm. Hopefully no significant changes on today's runs... nice to have some wiggle room for a change.

[JayPSU]

Hello my friends! Long time no talk! I cannot believe we appear to be locked into a storm with one foot totals possible for our entire state! Even the north and south outliers hammer us. Can this be real?


.

[buckeye]

9 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Hello my friends! Long time no talk! I cannot believe we appear to be locked into a storm with one foot totals possible for our entire state! Even the north and south outliers hammer us. Can this be real?


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welcome back, this is like a reunion.    I'm not ready to invest in this one until after the 00z runs...that leaves about 36 hours to start.  I'm banking on the assumption that models have improved enough in the last 20 years that we don't have to worry about another real time catastrophic failure, ie Feb 2007.    

[pondo1000]

36 minutes ago, buckeye said:

welcome back, this is like a reunion.    I'm not ready to invest in this one until after the 00z runs...that leaves about 36 hours to start.  I'm banking on the assumption that models have improved enough in the last 20 years that we don't have to worry about another real time catastrophic failure, ie Feb 2007.    

See what a good storm can do? Brings people together! I got my fingers & toes crossed that tonight’s runs don’t throw us a curveball.

[JayPSU]

See what a good storm can do? Brings people together! I got my fingers & toes crossed that tonight’s runs don’t throw us a curveball.

The curveball I worry about is seeing more amped future runs and a primary that holds on much longer. We’ve seen that many times. WTOD followed by dry slot.


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[buckeye]

so how's the ohio crowd feeling now that models have all held together for a widespread 8-12 incher across Central Ohio, 36 hours out?

What if any changes do you think might happen between now and during the storm?

For me, I have zero worries of mixing and actually wouldn't mind a little bit stronger push north.    Biggest concern is the dry air pushing more than the models are forecasting and losing some inches with the initial overrunning because of that.   I think what will be telling is how much of a virga storm we get Saturday afternoon/evening.    I can see a scenario waking up early Sunday morning with pixie dust and a wispy dusting on the ground and everyone freaking out that it's a bust....even though the main slug comes in Sunday morning into evening with the  low.   If we can score big on the initial overrunning than it's definitely game on for 12".

No matter what happens it's pretty much a sure bet we break that 6" seal...finally...and we actually get to keep it for awhile instead of the usual 2 days.

[pondo1000]

30 minutes ago, buckeye said:

so how's the ohio crowd feeling now that models have all held together for a widespread 8-12 incher across Central Ohio, 36 hours out?

What if any changes do you think might happen between now and during the storm?

For me, I have zero worries of mixing and actually wouldn't mind a little bit stronger push north.    Biggest concern is the dry air pushing more than the models are forecasting and losing some inches with the initial overrunning because of that.   I think what will be telling is how much of a virga storm we get Saturday afternoon/evening.    I can see a scenario waking up early Sunday morning with pixie dust and a wispy dusting on the ground and everyone freaking out that it's a bust....even though the main slug comes in Sunday morning into evening with the  low.   If we can score big on the initial overrunning than it's definitely game on for 12".

No matter what happens it's pretty much a sure bet we break that 6" seal...finally...and we actually get to keep it for awhile instead of the usual 2 days.

Excited but trying not to get too excited b/c so easy to get burned! LOL

I do think to get 8-12 we’re gonna need to do really well with the main event Sunday. That first slug is certain to be a lot of virga as the atmosphere will be drier than a popcorn fart! If we get some from that first round…….look out!!!