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Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!! 24'-25'


buckeye
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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's been a great winter for Central Ohio. Since 2014, only 2018 saw more to date at Columbus!

 

Disagree. I couldn't care less if we're above normal when its 1" here and 1" there. That doesn't equate to a good winter. We have had 1 decent snowfall of 5" in November, aside that its been mostly garbage. Do you need further proof than the fact I was the first post here since December 3rd? Lol

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the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position

 First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time.  This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun.   Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift.   We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).   

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20 hours ago, buckeye said:

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position

 First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time.  This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun.   Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift.   We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).   

Well it certainly cant go any further south. All but GFS have ticked north a bit. 

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Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow.   That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv.    Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go.    Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro.  That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north.   

No feeling in my gut on this one.   I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution.  All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns).    Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios.   I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod:)

Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

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39 minutes ago, NEOH said:

How many times in the past have we been sweating the inevitable NW trend and WTOD. Still a long way to go but good model trends for a widespread snowfall throughout OH. 

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend :unsure:

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54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend :unsure:

This set-up is different than what we've dealt with in the past. What is encouraging to see is the expansive precip shield. The 12z CMC and 00z Euro both hinted at energy hanging back which would be a good scenario.

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