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Fall 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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I'm sure you were joking, but with an expected wet pattern in the OV/Lakes and Canada much colder than last winter...good luck with that lol.

Wetter for sure. Colder we’ll see.
I do think that lake effect areas will get cranking in late winter and spring, however.


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1 minute ago, DocATL said:


Wetter for sure. Colder we’ll see.
I do think that lake effect areas will get cranking in late winter and spring, however.


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No doubt canada will be colder. Lake effect will probably crank early in the season too. You have to remember, it's very easy to get LES with cold fronts in early winter when the lakes are "warm". 

Side note...November (at least here) is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st day of the month to the last.

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16 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS and Euro are showing major rain across the region over the next eight days as a western trough spits out several chunks of energy, with the gulf wide open.

 

 

I like the sound of this for you:

image.png.ba24fb3623235a775fe1729e95ac128c.png

Really hoping to hear some great reports from you later today into tonight!!!  :maprain:  :thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

As long as it doesn't mean we can lock in fuck all for DJF, sounds good to me

It really looks like we are finally seeing the breakdown of the pattern we have been stuck in since August.  Pacific is now throwing a lot of big storms into Alaska area over the next 10 days or so.  It is going to take awhile for it to lock into anything desirable here until some level blocking in that area can get established.  Let's just hope any blocking is positioned well for us to get fun winter weather.

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It really looks like we are finally seeing the breakdown of the pattern we have been stuck in since August.  Pacific is now throwing a lot of big storms into Alaska area over the next 10 days or so.  It is going to take awhile for it to lock into anything desirable here until some level blocking in that area can get established.  Let's just hope any blocking is positioned well for us to get fun winter weather.

Unfortunately the teleconnections are not trending great. Namely, the AO is headed positive. It does look like we start tapping into some gulf moisture which will take our temps down a few notches for sure. There’s not much cold air outside the far north east over the next few weeks. So essentially we move from very warm and dry to warm and wet. I prefer the former personally, but it is what it is.


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5 hours ago, Lightning said:

It really looks like we are finally seeing the breakdown of the pattern we have been stuck in since August.  Pacific is now throwing a lot of big storms into Alaska area over the next 10 days or so.  It is going to take awhile for it to lock into anything desirable here until some level blocking in that area can get established.  Let's just hope any blocking is positioned well for us to get fun winter weather.

Breaking out of the super dry pattern in November is perfect timing ahead of winter. It's very common to see mild, dry Autumn's lead to wet winters in la ninas (though this autumn was extra dry). Although in my perfect world winter would start November 1st, I'm not worried at all about a mild November. Weve had plenty of cold, snowy novembers in recent years. Plus ill be busy getting all the Christmas decor ready lol.

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6 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Just hard to conceive of winter when it’s just this run after run…4a450e4b87c134c271f2b02df7f55570.jpg


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I know you're relatively new to the midwest. No one is disputing a mild November. But you have to remember a few things. Averages tank throughout November. And we have had quite a few cold/snowy novembers the last decade that have led to mild winters. And our harshest winter of the last decade (2017-18) started with a mild November. (Historically there is no november-winter correlation though). 

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I know you're relatively new to the midwest. No one is disputing a mild November. But you have to remember a few things. Averages tank throughout November. And we have had quite a few cold/snowy novembers the last decade that have led to mild winters. And our harshest winter of the last decade (2017-18) started with a mild November. (Historically there is no november-winter correlation though). 

I hear you. We aren’t going to be 75° three weeks from now. Totally understand. It’s more the two straight months of solidly above normal anomalies that are impressive. It has been a while since we have seen persistent below normal anomalies spanning for weeks. You could argue it’s because we have dated climate data but that’s another discussion. Anyway, at some point things will change.


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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Breaking out of the super dry pattern in November is perfect timing ahead of winter. It's very common to see mild, dry Autumn's lead to wet winters in la ninas (though this autumn was extra dry). Although in my perfect world winter would start November 1st, I'm not worried at all about a mild November. Weve had plenty of cold, snowy novembers in recent years. Plus ill be busy getting all the Christmas decor ready lol.

I put my outdoor lights up last weekend (due to my schedule).  I typically turn them on Thanksgiving week.

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6 hours ago, DocATL said:


Unfortunately the teleconnections are not trending great. Namely, the AO is headed positive. It does look like we start tapping into some gulf moisture which will take our temps down a few notches for sure. There’s not much cold air outside the far north east over the next few weeks. So essentially we move from very warm and dry to warm and wet. I prefer the former personally, but it is what it is.


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This is the time of year the jetstream wavelength begins to change.   This is why there are times a great pattern can fizzle to a crappy one and visa versa when not much else seems to change.

I do like it getting wetter as wetter ground seems to help.  Harry (occasional poster who will come around as winter gets going) is very big on wet grounds and storm tracks during winter.   Based on his points I do tend to agree there are time storms tracks are influnced by wetter grounds. 

Obviously there is a lot more to it, many other factors can change that will definitely influence the teleconnections and patterns.

I know you have recently moved to this area.  Hope your expectation is not for November to be an amazing winter month, you will be disappointed.  Most Novembers in my 50+ years in the the Great Lakes have about a week of winter like weather and 3 weeks of mild weather fall weather (yes some with occasional very warm days is nothing new). ^_^

 

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This is the time of year the jetstream wavelength begins to change.   This is why there are times a great pattern can fizzle to a crappy one and visa versa when not much else seems to change.
I do like it getting wetter as wetter ground seems to help.  Harry (occasional poster who will come around as winter gets going) is very big on wet grounds and storm tracks during winter.   Based on his points I do tend to agree there are time storms tracks are influnced by wetter grounds. 
Obviously there is a lot more to it, many other factors can change that will definitely influence the teleconnections and patterns.
I know you have recently moved to this area.  Hope your expectation is not for November to be an amazing winter month, you will be disappointed.  Most Novembers in my 50+ years in the the Great Lakes have about a week of winter like weather and 3 weeks of mild weather fall weather (yes some with occasional very warm days is nothing new). 
 

Not at all… I’d expect November as a time of transition. Before moving here, I visited often and did not come across too many times when it was wintry in November.


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3 hours ago, DocATL said:

Just hard to conceive of winter when it’s just this run after run…4a450e4b87c134c271f2b02df7f55570.jpg


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That look is the result of all of the low pressure/below normal heights happening now and for the next couple of weeks in Alaska and western Canada. Pacific air is very mild this time of year for Canada and the northern US. Watch the end of the ensembles today, especially the Euro. There are big changes around Alaska. It doesn't mean it's correct but that's what you want to look for. It may still have some level of trough in the west but if arctic air gets involved, a nice gradient pattern could develop later in November.

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1 hour ago, DocATL said:


Not at all… I’d expect November as a time of transition. Before moving here, I visited often and did not come across too many times when it was wintry in November.


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Fall and spring are the battle seasons. Lots of extremes and up and downs. Winter and summer duke it out. The difference, of course, is those warm autumn days will soon lose to winter, just as those spring snowfalls quickly lose to summer.

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1 hour ago, roardog said:

That look is the result of all of the low pressure/below normal heights happening now and for the next couple of weeks in Alaska and western Canada. Pacific air is very mild this time of year for Canada and the northern US. Watch the end of the ensembles today, especially the Euro. There are big changes around Alaska. It doesn't mean it's correct but that's what you want to look for. It may still have some level of trough in the west but if arctic air gets involved, a nice gradient pattern could develop later in November.

Always enjoy your posts. Please do not be a stranger this winter!

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That look is the result of all of the low pressure/below normal heights happening now and for the next couple of weeks in Alaska and western Canada. Pacific air is very mild this time of year for Canada and the northern US. Watch the end of the ensembles today, especially the Euro. There are big changes around Alaska. It doesn't mean it's correct but that's what you want to look for. It may still have some level of trough in the west but if arctic air gets involved, a nice gradient pattern could develop later in November.

Thanks!! Kinda stuff I geek over!


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1 hour ago, wxisfun said:

Okay but really, the EPS has been running too cold in the 11-15 day timeframe. You can clearly see how the upcoming 6-10 day period has trended much warmer over time for the Midwest and East, compared to the subdued (but slightly more widespread) warmth it had been showing earlier. Seems logical to exercise caution before entertaining the idea of some hypothetical pattern change that actually manages to bring Arctic air into the region.

 

Okay but really, I don't see a conversation about an Arctic air intrusion into this region in the next 10 days.  No one said it was no longer going to be mild or warm.  Seems logical to understand the pattern change being discussed is in reference to the fact it has been extremely dry with endless wall to wall sunshine and at least for the next few days we have a pattern with more storms and precipitation falling from the sky then most have seen in 2-3 months.

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29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I notice with the gfs in summer it was actually too hot in long range then cooled inside 200 hrs. Not sure if every model has a different bias.

Are you saying those 110F models runs were inaccurate for our area???:popcorn:

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2 hours ago, DocATL said:


We can hope for the lower amplitude squiggles in phase 2-3. Just seems like we go low amplitude in the colder phases and high in warm ones. But something has got to give.


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The maritime continent phases are the warm phases this time of year. It's pretty much the opposite of that right now.

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