Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Let's look at some individual stations - how about our climate reference network? Avondale 2N vs PHL

Not sure what you are plotting. The difference between PHl and Avondale in 2007 is 4.0, much larger than the value you have plotted. The difference between PHL and Avondale is nearly constant with time, with a slight decrease in the trend line. i.e. Avondale is warming slightly faster than PHL, though the difference may not be statistically significant. This agrees with the linear trend table I posted above and the chart showing Avondale and Philadelphia. You better check your math. 

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

How about that trained spotter station data from East Nantmeal vs PHL - yep you guessed it warming faster at PHL

This looks OK. My Table had Enantmeal warming at a slower pace. Some stations are warming faster, like Avondale, some slower, like ENantmeal. Overall the warming is the same.

[ChescoWx]

This is pretty straight forward. I am simply plotting the degree of warming delta for each year at PHL vs each and every station in Chester County. They are not warming at the same rate as PHL. The above analysis across all Chester County stations quite clearly illustrates that Chester County individual stations along with the overall average for Chester County are not warming at the same pace as PHL that is due to the UHI problems at PHL. 

[ChescoWx]

Below with the supporting calculations are Phoenixville longest complete data vs. PHL over the last 25 years. The 2 stations are clearly not warming at the same rate....but the trending increasing differences between the 2 stations and Chester County as a whole is due to UHI at the airport.

[ChescoWx]

Again the detail behind the overall calculation that supports that PHL Airport has over the last 25 years been heating more quickly than Chester County thanks to UHI. I don't think this is a surprise to anyone is it?

[ChescoWx]

[chubbs]

20 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below with the supporting calculations are Phoenixville longest complete data vs. PHL over the last 25 years. The 2 stations are clearly not warming at the same rate....but the trending increasing differences between the 2 stations and Chester County as a whole is due to UHI at the airport.

That's what I had in my table. Phoenixville warming faster than PHL between 1970 and 2024. However per the table the following stations warmed faster than PHL:  Devault (1951-88), Coatesville 2W (1983-07). West Chester (phl had more cooling, 1941-69), KMQS (2009-24), Avondale 2N (2007-24), and DEOS 3 stn (2010-24). As I said a mixed bag, but on average no difference.

[TheClimateChanger]

46 minutes ago, chubbs said:

That's what I had in my table. Phoenixville warming faster than PHL between 1970 and 2024. However per the table the following stations warmed faster than PHL:  Devault (1951-88), Coatesville 2W (1983-07). West Chester (phl had more cooling, 1941-69), KMQS (2009-24), Avondale 2N (2007-24), and DEOS 3 stn (2010-24). As I said a mixed bag, but on average no difference.

Wow! Scorcher today in Chester County, even in these carefully curated cool microclimates. That's a big pet peeve of mine... why spend all of this money on a "mesonet" and then place all of the equipment on farms or in parks, rather than in the communities where people live and work.

[ChescoWx]

41 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Scorcher today in Chester County, even in these carefully curated cool microclimates. That's a big pet peeve of mine... why spend all of this money on a "mesonet" and then place all of the equipment on farms or in parks, rather than in the communities where people live and work.

Looks hot to me! Even Atglen has almost eclipsed 90....just a tad short at 89.9 - West Grove also so close at 89.7 "only" 88.5 so far in EN but we still have some time.....

[chubbs]

8 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

PHL vs Longwood Gardens??? you guessed it - are any stations in Chester County warming as fast as our UHI contaminated PHL Airport?

Nice cherry pick among the DEOS. Per chart below, there is no difference warming between the 11 DEOS stations as a whole and the Philadelphia Airport. Some are warming faster than PHL and some slower.  The warming rate for the DEOS stations in the 2012 and 2024 period, when all stations were active, is 1.17F per decade. The rate for the Philadelphia Airport is 1.15F/decade. Note that the airport had a warm sensor issue in 2022, which caused a one year spike in temperatures vs other regional station.  That's not a heat island effect, since it disappeared in 2023. In any case the 11 DEOS stations and the Avondale USCRN station show conclusively that Chester County is warming rapidly in recent years, over 1F per decade. Can't blame it on heat island effects either. The stations are all remote.

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Below with the supporting calculations are Phoenixville longest complete data vs. PHL over the last 25 years. The 2 stations are clearly not warming at the same rate....but the trending increasing differences between the 2 stations and Chester County as a whole is due to UHI at the airport.

Meh. There isn't a big difference in the 2000-25 warming rate between Philadelphia and Phoenixville: 1.00 deg/decade for Phoenixville and 1.05 deg/decade for PHL. The difference is only 5% of the warming rate and is probably not statistically significant. 

I updated my table with the new Phoenixville and DEOS trends. No change in the main finding. Some plusses and minuses from station to station but on the whole the airport is warming at the same rate as Chesco stations.

[chubbs]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Scorcher today in Chester County, even in these carefully curated cool microclimates. That's a big pet peeve of mine... why spend all of this money on a "mesonet" and then place all of the equipment on farms or in parks, rather than in the communities where people live and work.

I don't mind the network, but it is different from our COOP stations, particularly the older ones. Night and day different. By the way, regarding your post of a couple of days ago. Per the last few pages, there are quite a few local sites at 1F/decade in recent decades. Won't change what I wrote previously, but will keep an eye on it.

 

[chubbs]

The big difference between the Phila Airport and the Chesco station average occurred in the 1945-1970 period. That's when the Chesco station average cooled significantly relative to other regional stations. Before 1945, Chesco COOPs were as warm as the Philly Airport or the Newark DE Ag station. By 1970, Chesco COOPS were as cool as Allentown. The cooling was mainly due to station moves: Coatesville 1946/47, Phoenixville 1948 and West Chester 1970. A reverse heat island effect for Coatesville and West Chester. Meanwhile the Phila Airport tracked other regional stations and West Chester before the 1970 West Chester move. The raw data is very clear. The Phila Airport is a much more consistent source of climate data than the Chesco COOPs. PHL's consistency advantage grows when non-COOP data is added making the Chesco data even more inconsistent.