Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like we're right in the bulls-eye for this one guys! I am a bit concerned with mixing on the forks but feel the middle of the island could get really hit with this. Chime in! Should be fun keeping up with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 do u think we will get dry slotted? are we between the 700 mb low and the surface low? im in huntington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks for starting this thread. I am not too far from you here on the Smithtown/Hauppauge border, Bobby. This should make for an interesting storm to follow for us! Hating the idea of the cleanup but as with all storms, tracking and watching is half the fun! My main concern is not with mixing and dry slotting, but with the winds associated with this beast. How are the models handling that aspect? Some of the GFS runs I recall from last night were progging ridiculous levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What happens if I lose power? How good is LIPA? Are any of the stores open for me to buy a shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What happens if I lose power? How good is LIPA? Are any of the stores open for me to buy a shovel? Let it snow in Farmingville!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ...hope the west trend is over..pretty nervous in regard to a possible changeover..i'm in eastport.. on the shores of moriches bay.. temp @ 29.4*..digging the overcast and cold condition this christmas day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ...hope the west trend is over..pretty nervous in regard to a possible changeover..i'm in eastport.. on the shores of moriches bay.. temp @ 29.4*..digging the overcast and cold condition this christmas day.. Yeah...I hope the west trend stops. Let this beast even track a little to the east to keep us all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let it snow in Farmingville!! Youre near Bald Hill arent you? You could ski or snowboard down the hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Youre near Bald Hill arent you? You could ski or snowboard down the hill! Very close to bald hill. However, I cant ski lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm on a sod farm in Miller Place facing unprotected, unobstructed farm in all westerly directions. Presuming northeast winds turning north, like last Dec 19, it will be another horrendous dig out due to drift patterns except last year my landlord's son had a Jeep Rubican so we got out through the 3 foot drifts with not a lot of effort. I hope for an east track just to keep this stuff more powdery bc 24" powder is WAY better and less heart attack inducing than any wet stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 My sister lived out in MP in 96 across from a farm.6 hours to dig out her front and back doors! Im worried the midnight shift wont show and I will be stuck at work for 20+ hours. We are a 24/7 365 facility so I dont get snow days . Looks like this could be one thats remembered for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well, at least bless you with overtime! It's rough here with open fields as you know with drifting. I am expected to work Monday morning also. Last year, for a Saturday storm, I could barely make it to work on Monday. Almost 2 hours from MP to MacArthur airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hilarious... Channel 2 WCBS TV says Suffolk County will get up to 11 inches and the further WEST you go, the higher the snowfall totals. Elyse Finch showed a map where central and eastern suffolk county would get LOWER amounts. CBS 880, the radio station, said the further EAST you go, the higher the snowfall ratios will be. It's my experience, save February 2006, that since Nor Easters track closer to Long Island, Long Island is closer to the core and thus receives more intensity in the snow that it gets, whereas there are temperature issues with NYC and it's further WEST than the center of the storm. 9x out of 10, Suffolk County declares a snow emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pd8779 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hilarious... Channel 2 WCBS TV says Suffolk County will get up to 11 inches and the further WEST you go, the higher the snowfall totals. Elyse Finch showed a map where central and eastern suffolk county would get LOWER amounts. CBS 880, the radio station, said the further EAST you go, the higher the snowfall ratios will be. It's my experience, save February 2006, that since Nor Easters track closer to Long Island, Long Island is closer to the core and thus receives more intensity in the snow that it gets, whereas there are temperature issues with NYC and it's further WEST than the center of the storm. 9x out of 10, Suffolk County declares a snow emergency. They have less snow on the east end because they are expecting some mixing on the east end of long island. A track closer to the coast will lead to warmer air and mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They have less snow on the east end because they are expecting some mixing on the east end of long island. A track closer to the coast will lead to warmer air and mixing. Maybe on the South Shore and maybe the forks, but central Suffolk? Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 They have less snow on the east end because they are expecting some mixing on the east end of long island. A track closer to the coast will lead to warmer air and mixing. As Art has said, perhaps on the E. end but central Suffolk is unlikely. I also think your going to see a drift E. with each upcoming run lessening that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What is the approximate start time for the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 What is the approximate start time for the island? Snow showers possible overnight but I think by lunchtime things will start going down hill rather fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Snow showers possible overnight but I think by lunchtime things will start going down hill rather fast. Thanks...hey how do you get the wunderground sig on? Got it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 finally!! our very own thread!! i'm from Holbrook, btw, just south of KISP... i wanna ask when do you think is the start time for this storm??? i know precip is already on our doorstep and ive read in the other thread that we could start seeing light snow as early as Sunday morning but at what point do you think it will be unwise to travel?? we still have one party to attend to tomorrow and we also have some friends and relatives coming over from NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 finally!! our very own thread!! i'm from Holbrook, btw, just south of KISP... i wanna ask when do you think is the start time for this storm??? i know precip is already on our doorstep and ive read in the other thread that we could start seeing light snow as early as Sunday morning but at what point do you think it will be unwise to travel?? we still have one party to attend to tomorrow and we also have some friends and relatives coming over from NJ... Don't want to be a party pooper, but I wouldn't plan a round trip from NJ to LI at all tomorrow. The entire trip might be unwise becasue of the potential for an ungodly horrible ride back. Prudent thing to do is to cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm on a sod farm in Miller Place facing unprotected, unobstructed farm in all westerly directions. Presuming northeast winds turning north, like last Dec 19, it will be another horrendous dig out due to drift patterns except last year my landlord's son had a Jeep Rubican so we got out through the 3 foot drifts with not a lot of effort. I hope for an east track just to keep this stuff more powdery bc 24" powder is WAY better and less heart attack inducing than any wet stuff. According to the info Ive been gathering, Miller Place is the snowiest (and overall coldest) place on Long Island-- correct me if Im wrong, please. What's your annual snowfall average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Maybe on the South Shore and maybe the forks, but central Suffolk? Doubtful. Not the western part of the south shore Here we dont changeover with this kind of track because of the orientation of the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What's happenin Alex? hey William! Getting ready for the big one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks pretty good, from what I can tell. There does seem a decent chance of some mixing over the Forks...probably worst case scenario mix line gets as far west as Islip up NNE to where I'm at. Your pretty safe in Woodmere. Hopefully the mix line doesnt get to you-- you should be ok with a track to Montauk Pt right? I want this thing to stall off of Cape May for awhile lol. Thundersnow plus high winds should make it great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Every storm is different, but historically, a track that we are more or less looking at with this storm is generally mostly snow as far east as Upton...but, as I said, there is a fair chance there could be less out east...looks good here, but as always is the case, time will tell. Looks like westhampton beach might be the battle ground. Still, eastern areas should get an MECS even east of there (8-12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 6Z GFS came in a little dryer (1.25-1.50) vs. (1.50- 1.75) but more importantly looks colder which in the long run may help some of us out regarding any mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 6Z GFS came in a little dryer (1.25-1.50) vs. (1.50- 1.75) but more importantly looks colder which in the long run may help some of us out regarding any mixing. Can you see where the track is and how strong it is and if its slower? The 0z euro had it crossing montauk point below 970mb.....and it took it 12 hrs to get from atlantic city to montauk point, while it gained 10mb in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 6Z GFS came in a little dryer (1.25-1.50) vs. (1.50- 1.75) but more importantly looks colder which in the long run may help some of us out regarding any mixing. ..i'll take a little drier as long as it is COLDER..nws discussion says it might "BREIFLY" change to rain/sleet..does that mean it would go back over to snow ?? temp @ 28.6*@7am..wish it was lower..I'll be watching those temp. trends all day...(during commercial breaks w/ regard to NYJ/NYG)..gonna be a close call for us east of the william floyd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Every storm is different, but historically, a track that we are more or less looking at with this storm is generally mostly snow as far east as Upton...but, as I said, there is a fair chance there could be less out east...looks good here, but as always is the case, time will tell. Uptons forecast for my area (Wading River) says Snow likely until noon, then rain and snow until 3pm, then back to all snow. That makes me awfully uneasy right before this thing gets going. BRIEF mixing doesnt often work out here. Western LI looks to be in great shape! Neat looking radar OKX radar loop right now..the wall of precip is moving rapidly nne but there is a little tongue of precip (or virga) curling almost due west along the northern edge.... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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