February 2024 mid/ long range

[jaxjagman]

Our last storm here in in MId Tn in Jan we had a -PDO/-PNA-NAO,chart is the EPO.I still think we have a chance for a storm or at least some S word but i'm not sure we'll see the -NAO we saw in Jan

2023 12 28   -1.71
2023 12 29  -36.25
2023 12 30   -0.77
2023 12 31   -8.59
2024 01 01  -16.35
2024 01 02  -14.37
2024 01 03   71.51
2024 01 04  199.53
2024 01 05  196.56
2024 01 06   81.39
2024 01 07   34.24
2024 01 08   65.26
2024 01 09   94.10
2024 01 10    0.67
2024 01 11  -60.09
2024 01 12  -43.39
2024 01 13   -0.39
2024 01 14  -23.32
2024 01 15 -161.03
2024 01 16 -231.80
2024 01 17 -207.17
2024 01 18 -195.44
2024 01 19 -168.61
2024 01 20  -33.35
2024 01 21   61.72
2024 01 22   88.66
2024 01 23  105.73
2024 01 24  108.20
2024 01 25   46.39
2024 01 26   54.46
2024 01 27  111.99
2024 01 28  104.89
2024 01 29  115.66
2024 01 30   98.16
2024 01 31   21.32
2024 02 01   13.72
2024 02 02   30.50
2024 02 03    8.65
2024 02 04  -40.74
2024 02 05  -57.45
2024 02 06  -33.05
2024 02 07   34.99
2024 02 08   47.94

[Carvers Gap]

The downstream NAO ridge/block often forces the western ridge to pop by buckling the jet, and that is likely what occurred during January.  Without the NAO, the flow would have been zonal.  The NAO sharpens western ridges(forces the upstream jet to buckle) and brings cold southward but allows storms to gain latitude along the EC. The debate for me is not whether the the EPO was there,  I just don’t think it would have been there without the NAO buckling and forcing the trough into the East. That trough in the East forced the western ridge to pop.   I just don’t think the January pattern was EPO driven....the EPO was a byproduct of downstream blocking and a retraction of the Pacific jet.  Without the NAO, the EPO ridge doesn’t form in a meaningful way IMHO.  That is my point.  As soon as the NAO disappears, the forcing for the EPO is lost...and it disappears almost immediately.  This has been a common then during the past 4-5 winters.  The cold during the past few winters has often been coupled with a brief NAO episode.  Think of it like a water hose on high pressure.  When the end is blocked, the hose will often buckle.  That is exactly my point.  Without the block - no upstream EPO block this winter.

 

We can get into previous winters and storms later, my original comment was specifically about the January cold being driven by the NAO block, and it was.  I stand by that comment 100%.  You will find that is often a common theme during big EC storms.  And that has to be fished out of data (almost on a day by day basis) as the NAO (of late) appears for 2-3 weeks and won’t show in a monthly 500 pattern on reanalysis as it gets washed out.   Again, what the NAO does is it forces the jet to buckle in an upside down omega pattern and forces confluence over the eastern half of the country.  E TN, more often than not, needs it.  

That’s what I have, the defense rests.

[Carvers Gap]

The other driver during that January timeframe was the MJO relented and rolled into phases 1-2-3.  It wasn’t overly favorable, but it wasn’t hostile either.  For an induced NAO block to form a ridge out West, the Pacfic jet extension had to move westward.  As soon as that jet extension relented, the NAO buckled the flow.  
 

This time around, not sure that is going to happen as the IO and MC are muddying the MJO waters.  The NAO doesn’t play nicely at all times.  Sometimes it hooks into an eastern ridge, and sometimes it can’t overcome a jet pounding the West Coast.  But...it is a common ingredient in many, many great EC and E TN storms, and it was this past January.
 

For now, it looks as if we have potential for a storm on the 18th...might be our last shot. 

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling was likely in error about the upcoming NAO intensity which was forecast to be stronger than it is now for the second half of February.  As the NAO diminished...the ensuing runs have warmed dramatically.  But one thing I tend to note, modeling will often struggle with HL blocking up until the last minute.    My guess is the QBO has reversing or is about to...that is correlated to negative NAOs as well.  I haven’t looked at it recently, but it is due to flip.  The NAO might be one of the most difficult things for current computer modeling to effectively portray.  But let’s see where the pattern goes after the potential system on the 18th.  My guess is base warm(with cold interludes), but I am not completely sold on that. 

[Daniel Boone]

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The downstream NAO ridge/block often forces the western ridge to pop by buckling the jet, and that is likely what occurred during January.  Without the NAO, the flow would have been zonal.  The NAO sharpens western ridges(forces the upstream jet to buckle) and brings cold southward but allows storms to gain latitude along the EC. The debate for me is not whether the the EPO was there,  I just don’t think it would have been there without the NAO buckling and forcing the trough into the East. That trough in the East forced the western ridge to pop.   I just don’t think the January pattern was EPO driven....the EPO was a byproduct of downstream blocking and a retraction of the Pacific jet.  Without the NAO, the EPO ridge doesn’t form in a meaningful way IMHO.  That is my point.  As soon as the NAO disappears, the forcing for the EPO is lost...and it disappears almost immediately.  This has been a common then during the past 4-5 winters.  The cold during the past few winters has often been coupled with a brief NAO episode.  Think of it like a water hose on high pressure.  When the end is blocked, the hose will often buckle.  That is exactly my point.  Without the block - no upstream EPO block this winter.

 

We can get into previous winters and storms later, my original comment was specifically about the January cold being driven by the NAO block, and it was.  I stand by that comment 100%.  You will find that is often a common theme during big EC storms.  And that has to be fished out of data (almost on a day by day basis) as the NAO (of late) appears for 2-3 weeks and won’t show in a monthly 500 pattern on reanalysis as it gets washed out.   Again, what the NAO does is it forces the jet to buckle in an upside down omega pattern and forces confluence over the eastern half of the country.  E TN, more often than not, needs it.  

That’s what I have, the defense rests.

Yeah, very good description. Actually started to mention yesterday that the blocking should provide enough buckle to be sufficient to support at least ine event this month. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, very good description. Actually started to mention yesterday that the blocking should provide enough buckle to be sufficient to support at least ine event this month. 

And even with this system on 17th-20th(it has moved around a bit), if one goes to Tropical Tidbits at 500, all one has to do is toggle back until they see the heights over Greenland get stronger.  I think those runs are around Feb 7th at 6z(off the top of my head...I breezed through that a minute ago).  Then, go look at the surface for that storm. As the NAO has weakened during subsequent runs, the storm has gotten warmer (until 6z today which was a good run). One thing the NAO block also does is it also often turns the AO negative, not always but often.  That opens the door for cross polar flow from Siberia.  The NAO block then often forces that flow into the East - if it doesn't hook into the SER!  LOL.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

And even with this system on 17th-20th(it has moved around a bit), if one goes to Tropical Tidbits at 500, all one has to do is toggle back until they see the heights over Greenland get stronger.  I think those runs are around Feb 7th at 6z(off the top of my head...I breezed through that a minute ago).  Then, go look at the surface for that storm. As the NAO has weakened during subsequent runs, the storm has gotten warmer (until 6z today which was a good run). One thing the NAO block also does is it also often turns the AO negative, not always but often.  That opens the door for cross polar flow from Siberia.  The NAO block then often forces that flow into the East - if it doesn't hook into the SER!  LOL.  

Yeah, hopefully we trend back stronger with the block. Just looking at 12z GFS and extrapolating if the Model is under estimating the block on how we could be in the game as early as the 15 th. At least a couple inches. Strong enough forcing southward and that massive PA Dumping would be over us. That's not going to be the case this go around though. But, could be enough to get in on some of that southern extent. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is the current run at 12z.  Look at the NAO region.  It is (edit)weaker than four days ago.  Notice the upstream (upside down) omega with the trough is not sharp compared to four days ago(below).   The western PNA is great, but without the Atlantic block...nada.  

This was just four days ago.  Notice the NAO region(Greenland) is marginally better as the heights are higher over a larger area of the Davis Straits.  The omega contains the BN heights which is carved out better.  Notice the storm is sharper and a better cold air supply.  Look at the difference on the surface.  Boom.  The NAO below has actually backed the flow just enough that the PNA ridge is in EPO territory.  This is what I am talking about when I say "NAO driven."  That western ridge buckles so that it is a bit more in the eastern Pac.  The NAO forced that IMHO.  Without the stronger NAO, the ridge on todays run (above) pushes slightly eastward (in the West), and we lose confluence and our cold air supply to boot.

 

 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is the current run at 12z.  Look at the NAO region.  It is far weaker than four days ago.  Notice the upstream (upside down) omega with the trough is not sharp compared to four days ago(below).   The western PNA is great, but without the Atlantic block...nada.  

This was just four days ago.  Notice the NAO region(Greenland) is marginally better as the heights are higher over a larger area of the Davis Straits.  The omega contains the BN heights which is carved out better.  Notice the storm is sharper and a better cold air supply.  Look at the difference on the surface.  Boom.  The NAO below has actually backed the flow just enough that the PNA ridge is in EPO territory.  This is what I am talking about when I say "NAO driven."  That western ridge buckles so that it is a bit more in the eastern Pac.  The NAO forced that IMHO.  Without the stronger NAO, the ridge on todays run (above) pushes slightly eastward (in the West), and we lose confluence and our cold air supply to boot.

 

 

Great post. You’d think we’d need a beast NAO block, but the feb 7 run is only marginally better than today’s run. It won’t take much at all to reel this one back in. Definitely keeping an eye. 

[*Flash*]

A few quick points in passing (Warning: My thoughts yield to west/middle TN; east TN posters can add their tweaks as needed):

1) Before I forget to say it, the transparency, humility, and corporate knowledge base on this board is why I believe it's the best of the main forum options. Discussions that compel chips towards the center of the table, that's how we all learn and grow in understanding together. A corporate job well done there.

2) I'm learning more and more how each winter setup is truly unique, a snowflake unto itself. Last decade, we saw wintry episodes that rarely featured north American teleconnection alignment between the primary players (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO). During this time, the local weather communities were adjusting to what we needed to see in our respective valleys within the context of a -PDO. The way my memory works, I recall events by themes and tropes:

• 2010-11 - How middle/east TN can score when the -NAO overwhelms the pattern. Second strongest Niña in the 21st century. Only 2007-08 ranks higher. 
• 2011-12 - Pure misery on the heels of a great two-year stretch. Creds: PDO/MJO/SSWE.
• 2012-13 - Like the prior winter by extension but hope abounds because...
• 2013-14 - ...we finally see a jackpot setup for east TN. Partial creds: +TNH and PV appearances. #snowdome winter for west/middle TN. Bad history for BNA as the DJF period ranks #1 for total snow/mean temperature departure from average department. Great example of how suppression can kill chances for the western half when the Atlantic quenches the storm track. 
• 2014-15 - My friend, the -EPO, makes a cameo and offsets the +NAO. To Carver's point, the February/March 2015 storms were mostly hits for western/middle TN with the greatest totals near the TN River. This year taught me how the Pacific can help parts of the state out, especially as the -PDO weakens. The AMO also dips briefly into negative territory. 
• 2015-16 - Winter. Storm. Jonas. A jackpot storm for northern middle TN during a historic two-week stretch that proves to be weather loan forgiveness for 2013-14. For BNA, the 27th snowiest winter took place in the 9th warmest winter courtesy of a temporarily improved PDO. Proof of what one storm can do even when the December prior is the epitome of blowtorch. Creds: SUPER Niño (Modiki) ENSO. 
• 2016-17 - Pretty sure everything sucked this winter. Typing the years out hurts my eyes. I'm just going to move on...
• 2017-18 - Dry/cold December. Slight +PNA/-EPO, again, is the solve for middle TN in mid January despite a consistent +NAO. SSWE takes place too late and gives us a cold spring. Plenty of KY snow in early March as the MJO amplification increases. Tough pills to swallow as a two-week adjustment in timing could have resulted in a top 25 snow event for many on the forum. 
• 2018-19 - Rich man's 2016-17. PNA starts positive but quickly goes negative. +NAO fails to go negative until the spring. PDO is weak but is overrun by other teleconnections. Some nice hits northwest of TN into MO/KY/IL. Lots of MJO amplification fluctuation throughout. Second consecutive cold spring. More misery.
• 2019-20 - See 2016-17. This winter gets a pandemic pass. 
• 2020-21 - The rise of the -EPO delivers a brutal late winter blow to points west of the plateau. The NAO starts negative in January but rises throughout the rest of winter. A goldmine February for the western 2/3rd's of the state that ultimately saves winter. 
• 2021-22 - A hookup between 2015-16 and 2021-22 and another win for the -EPO/+PNA amidst a +NAO. First two weeks for middle TN see not one, not two, but three notable snow events sandwiched in just a two-week stretch. 
• 2022-23 - A tutorial on how winter can be screwed for TN when the NAO cooperates. A true one-hit wonder and another winter to forget overall. I'll let recency bias do the talking here. 

3) All of this said, we can see how last January was our mini-perfect storm the way everything came together (almost) statewide. As Carver mentioned, the award goes to the -NAO and is the testament to east TN capitalizing. Generally speaking, west/middle TN can still root for a -NAO despite greater impacts east of the plateau assuming other factors preserve a flatter flow as opposed to SW --> NE. Still, the -EPO being more of a win for west/middle TN cannot be denied despite the limited sample size above. Just my $0.02.

Selah. 

[Carvers Gap]

The big thing to watch with NAO climatology, the better storms IMO often occur towards the end of the NAO cycle.  We have definitely had more -NAOs during the past 4-5 winters.  2-3 years ago it became more apparent that we were headed back towards a -NAO winter scheme.  We really had gone maybe a couple of decades without seeing consistent winter-after-winter -NAO stuff.  (Now, that is off the top of my head.)   So, it is important to really dig into storms versus actually seasonal or month by month analogs.  NE TN can score from a DC pattern that is snowy.   We can also score from an EPO pattern.  Where we have trouble scoring is with a moderate to strong ENSO of either type.  We need ENSO forcing to be weak but not nada either.  
 

As for middle TN during the past three years, I could make more of a case for La Niña driving those patterns as you all often need a bit of a SER to score.  It sucks in E TN, but that SER often produces a storm track along the Apps or through the eastern Valley.  Whether that SER is a product of an EPO or the EPO is the product of the SER...now that is a fun debate.  Why?  Well, the SER is basically a standing wave and maybe we could also call it a block.  When that SER sharpens along the SE region it backs flow again much like the NAO, and it consequently (one could argue) buckles the jet.  I will have to go back and look, but one of the big recent storms for middle TN or the ice storm had a stout SER which maybe was connected to the NAO.  It seems like one of those storms came directly at the end of NAO blocking or at the beginning.  I am not in a place where I can check NAOs currently.  
 

Either way, when the Atlantic has a block form (SER or NAO), that often forces the upstream ridge to pop.  Placement of the mid-continent trough is highly dependent on where the block sets up shop.  And it makes a big difference here.

 

Now, prior to these recent current -NAO winter episodes, the Pacific often drove the pattern as the NAO was absent.  However, that was not what my original post which was about re: whether the EPO drove this recent January outbreak.  The EPO during this recent outbreak was a likely by-product of the NAO.

 

So rule of thumb.  Some EPO pattens are a direct result of NAO blocking, but not all EPO patterns are a result of NAO blocking.  When a couplet of NAO and western blocks form...pretty good chance the NAO forced that.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is the current run at 12z.  Look at the NAO region.  It is (edit)weaker than four days ago.  Notice the upstream (upside down) omega with the trough is not sharp compared to four days ago(below).   The western PNA is great, but without the Atlantic block...nada.  

This was just four days ago.  Notice the NAO region(Greenland) is marginally better as the heights are higher over a larger area of the Davis Straits.  The omega contains the BN heights which is carved out better.  Notice the storm is sharper and a better cold air supply.  Look at the difference on the surface.  Boom.  The NAO below has actually backed the flow just enough that the PNA ridge is in EPO territory.  This is what I am talking about when I say "NAO driven."  That western ridge buckles so that it is a bit more in the eastern Pac.  The NAO forced that IMHO.  Without the stronger NAO, the ridge on todays run (above) pushes slightly eastward (in the West), and we lose confluence and our cold air supply to boot.

 

 

The high in the Atalantic,if its stronger and even more westward than being shown should be ample enough to change the steering pattern and change the storm from going into North Florida

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The big thing to watch with NAO climatology, the better storms IMO often occur towards the end of the NAO cycle.  We have definitely had more -NAOs during the past 4-5 winters.  2-3 years ago it became more apparent that we were headed back towards a -NAO winter scheme.  We really had gone maybe a couple of decades without seeing consistent winter-after-winter -NAO stuff.  (Now, that is off the top of my head.)   So, it is important to really dig into storms versus actually seasonal or month by month analogs.  NE TN can score from a DC pattern that is snowy.   We can also score from an EPO pattern.  Where we have trouble scoring is with a moderate to strong ENSO of either type.  We need ENSO forcing to be weak but not nada either.  
 

As for middle TN during the past three years, I could make more of a case for La Niña driving those patterns as you all often need a bit of a SER to score.  It sucks in E TN, but that SER often produces a storm track along the Apps or through the eastern Valley.  Whether that SER is a product of an EPO or the EPO is the product of the SER...now that is a fun debate.  Why?  Well, the SER is basically a standing wave and maybe we could also call it a block.  When that SER sharpens along the SE region it backs flow again much like the NAO, and it consequently (one could argue) buckles the jet.  I will have to go back and look, but one of the big recent storms for middle TN or the ice storm had a stout SER which maybe was connected to the NAO.  It seems like one of those storms came directly at the end of NAO blocking or at the beginning.  I am not in a place where I can check NAOs currently.  
 

Either way, when the Atlantic has a block form (SER or NAO), that often forces the upstream ridge to pop.  Placement of the mid-continent trough is highly dependent on where the block sets up shop.  And it makes a big difference here.

 

Now, prior to these recent current -NAO winter episodes, the Pacific often drove the pattern as the NAO was absent.  However, that was not what my original post which was about re: whether the EPO drove this recent January outbreak.  The EPO during this recent outbreak was a likely by-product of the NAO.

 

So rule of thumb.  Some EPO pattens are a direct result of NAO blocking, but not all EPO patterns are a result of NAO blocking.  When a couplet of NAO and western blocks form...pretty good chance the NAO forced that.

You're on it today man ! Great work ! 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a great article about the NAO.  It does a great job into really looking at all sides.  Be sure to read the part in conclusions about correlations to snowfall along the East Coast.  That could also be read as areas just inland from the coast as well such as E TN - but I am extrapolating.    But overall, it covers a ton of great material, and is not one sided.  Kocin is mentioned in this.  I will try to get some of his stuff later.
 

https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2020-20/wcd-2020-20.pdf

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

A few quick points in passing (Warning: My thoughts yield to west/middle TN; east TN posters can add their tweaks as needed):

1) Before I forget to say it, the transparency, humility, and corporate knowledge base on this board is why I believe it's the best of the main forum options. Discussions that compel chips towards the center of the table, that's how we all learn and grow in understanding together. A corporate job well done there.

2) I'm learning more and more how each winter setup is truly unique, a snowflake unto itself. Last decade, we saw wintry episodes that rarely featured north American teleconnection alignment between the primary players (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO). During this time, the local weather communities were adjusting to what we needed to see in our respective valleys within the context of a -PDO. The way my memory works, I recall events by themes and tropes:

• 2010-11 - How middle/east TN can score when the -NAO overwhelms the pattern. Second strongest Niña in the 21st century. Only 2007-08 ranks higher. 
• 2011-12 - Pure misery on the heels of a great two-year stretch. Creds: PDO/MJO/SSWE.
• 2012-13 - Like the prior winter by extension but hope abounds because...
• 2013-14 - ...we finally see a jackpot setup for east TN. Partial creds: +TNH and PV appearances. #snowdome winter for west/middle TN. Bad history for BNA as the DJF period ranks #1 for total snow/mean temperature departure from average department. Great example of how suppression can kill chances for the western half when the Atlantic quenches the storm track. 
• 2014-15 - My friend, the -EPO, makes a cameo and offsets the +NAO. To Carver's point, the February/March 2015 storms were mostly hits for western/middle TN with the greatest totals near the TN River. This year taught me how the Pacific can help parts of the state out, especially as the -PDO weakens. The AMO also dips briefly into negative territory. 
• 2015-16 - Winter. Storm. Jonas. That's all I'm going to say. A jackpot storm for northern middle TN during a historic two-week stretch is weather loan forgiveness for 2013-14. For BNA, the 27th snowiest winter took place in the 9th warmest winter courtesy of a temporarily improved PDO. Proof of what one storm can do even when the December prior is the epitome of blowtorch. Creds: SUPER Niño (Modiki) ENSO. 
• 2016-17 - Pretty sure everything sucked this winter. Typing the years out hurts my eyes. I'm just going to move on...
• 2017-18 - Dry/cold December. Slight +PNA/-EPO, again, is the solve for middle TN in mid January despite a consistent +NAO. SSWE takes place too late and gives us a cold spring. Plenty of KY snow in early March as the MJO amplification increases. Tough pills to swallow as a two-week adjustment could have been big. 
• 2018-19 - Rich man's 2016-17. PNA starts positive but quickly goes negative. +NAO fails to go negative until the spring. PDO is weak but is overrun by other teleconnections. Some nice hits northwest of TN into MO/KY/IL. Lots of MJO amplification fluctuation throughout. Second consecutive cold spring. More misery.
• 2019-20 - See 2016-17. This winter gets a pandemic pass. 
• 2020-21 - The rise of the -EPO delivers a brutal late winter blow to points west of the plateau. The NAO starts negative in January but rises throughout the rest of winter. A goldmine February for the western 2/3rd's of the state that ultimately saves winter. 
• 2021-22 - A hookup between 2015-16 and 2021-22 and another win for the -EPO/+PNA amidst a +NAO. First two weeks for middle TN see not one, not two, but three notable snow events sandwiched in just a two-week stretch. 
• 2022-23 - A tutorial on how winter can be screwed for TN when the NAO cooperates. A true one-hit wonder and another winter to forget overall. I'll let recency bias do the talking here. 

3) All of this said, we can see how last January was our mini-perfect storm the way everything came together (almost) statewide. As Carver mentioned, the award goes to the -NAO and is the testament to east TN capitalizing. Generally speaking, west/middle TN can still root for a -NAO despite greater impacts east of the plateau assuming other factors preserve a flatter flow as opposed to SW --> NE. Still, the -EPO being more of a win for west/middle TN cannot be denied despite the limited sample size above. Just my $0.02.

Selah. 

Yes,we live in a different world climo wise than the east,after you get over the mountains its a different world.This is also the reason why we see more tornadoes in our parts compared to the east

[Carvers Gap]

Meanwhile, the 12z Euro does have some talking points.  The 17th system is more of a slider as confluence is helping there from the NAO block.  North of I-40 is light snow.  There is another system right on its heels.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS was very cold and is well out of sync with its ensemble.  Could we be seeing modeling beginning to sense blocking?  Maybe.  This occurred in early January(when modeling missed the mid-Jan cold shot), and that isn't the first recent GFS run where the TPV got trapped.  I suspect that there is one really cold shot embedded in the pattern between the 20th-30th.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC definitely shows the potential for the trailing system around the 20th.

[jaxjagman]

Euro looks totally different from last night.I'll still hold a slim chance but the globals  have been mostly consistent with the southern system being more suppressed,plus we still dont even know what the teleconnections will be like

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS looks like it caved to the GEFS in the long range.   As Jeff noted the MJO is going into warm phases on satellite and the previous convection over the MC didn't moved into the eastern Pac as modeled.  

On to bowling season.  Storm track is still favorable, though cold sources are not.

Of note, Asia often gets first choice when it comes to SSW events.  The cold has dumped there.  Our cold sources are also not great right now.  Even if we had a perfect HL blocking set-up, there is no severe cold(in Canada...though Canadian cold is still cold here in TN) in medium and LR modeling to deliver.  Eastern NA is often third choice when it comes to strat splits.  Now, the current strat split...that is TBD.  The current cold in Asia is due to a Jan SSW.  So, a very cold spell during March can't be ruled out once this SSW runs it course - 2-3 weeks later would be probably impacts to mid-laititudes.  

All of that said, it was super common during my youth to see severe cold delivered into the TN Valley, and then winter would be over after that at lower elevations.  84-85, 89-90, 22-23, and maybe 17-18 (could be 18-19) come to mind.  09-10 and 14-15 were more prolonged, but that is a rarity for most of the winters I lived through.  Usually, winter showed-up, hammered us, and then left.  

I still think LR modeling is probably washing out a cold shot.  You could see the 12z GFS try to deliver the goods late in its run.  When wave lengths shorten during spring, modeling will often miss very cold air masses that are quick hitters.

I should note that the 12z Euro control looked super similar to the 12z GFS.  That could/would likely deliver some very cold air w/ that set-up.

Is the EPS being discontinued?  That is the word on the street...maybe above towards a control oriented model suite?

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

West TN just got NAM’d 

[jaxjagman]

I believe this is more ENSO than anything else.But that's JMHO

11 Feb 2024	1005.21	1008.95	-40.73	-8.94	-5.15
10 Feb 2024	1005.61	1009.10	-39.53	-7.15	-5.06
9 Feb 2024	1003.50	1008.45	-46.54	-5.57	-4.93
8 Feb 2024	1005.88	1007.85	-32.23	-3.97	-4.64
7 Feb 2024	1005.31	1008.70	-39.05	-2.84	-4.42
6 Feb 2024	1005.56	1009.50	-41.69	-1.50	-4.12
5 Feb 2024	1007.06	1009.90	-36.41	-0.02	-3.85
4 Feb 2024	1008.30	1009.40	-28.05	0.94	-3.66
3 Feb 2024	1007.67	1007.55	-22.19	1.65	-3.51
2 Feb 2024	1006.85	1008.15	-29.01	2.20	-3.36
1 Feb 2024	1007.27	1008.65	-29.40	3.19	-3.02
31 Jan 2024	1009.49	1009.45	-21.52	4.18	-2.70
30 Jan 2024	1009.93	1009.15	-18.04	4.81	-2.50
29 Jan 2024	1009.71	1008.55	-16.25	5.81	-2.29
28 Jan 2024	1010.40	1008.00	-10.41	6.71	-2.02
27 Jan 2024	1011.41	1007.50	-3.29	7.10	-1.83
26 Jan 2024	1012.20	1008.10	-2.40	7.08	-1.83
25 Jan 2024	1011.37	1008.40	-7.72	7.07	-1.81
24 Jan 2024	1011.85	1008.10	-4.05	7.35	-1.78
23 Jan 2024	1010.69	1007.45	-6.45	7.18	-1.77
22 Jan 2024	1010.29	1005.50	0.85	6.48	-1.69
21 Jan 2024	1010.18	1003.25	10.93	5.24	-1.69
20 Jan 2024	1010.92	1003.10	15.13	3.85	-1.89

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is the EPS being discontinued?  That is the word on the street...maybe above towards a control oriented model suite?

They are doing away with the high res OP Euro and running the EPS and the control as sort of a lo res OP. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

They are doing away with the high res OP Euro and running the EPS and the control as sort of a lo res OP. 

Yep, that is it.  That is going to be a major loss.  Thanks for the clarification.  How long until that occurs?  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, that is it.  That is going to be a major loss.  Thanks for the clarification.  How long until that occurs?  

I heard something about later in the year. Maybe after September 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

Wow.  Check out the 18z HRRR....it has it as well.  Right on time if real!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Memphis w/ the afternoon disco....sorry, western forum folks, for skipping this!  You all might have something to track.

The aforementioned upper low is forecast to move directly over the
Mid-South on Monday. As this occurs, wraparound precipitation
will likely impact portions of northeast Arkansas and west
Tennessee. Some guidance is beginning to hint at potential sleet /
snow development on Monday for these areas. A few snow flurries
may be possible as forecast soundings depict below freezing
temperatures throughout the majority of the atmospheric column.
However, surface temperatures will likely be a few degrees above
freezing so anything that does fall should melt quickly. The
greater concern on Monday will be winds as the center of low
pressure moves overhead. Currently, guidance keeps winds just
below Wind Advisory criteria. However, would not be surprised if
this headline is needed in the coming days.

 

[Carvers Gap]

 

[jaxjagman]

35 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

thats crazy,even the GFS now,this was suppose to be into the OV