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2024 Foothills Thread


BooneWX
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20 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Remember when the pattern change was supposed to be February 10-12? Now its February 16-18. Sound familiar?

What we can count on every year, the teleconnections will get right for snow except it will be the beginning of Spring. 

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11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Does anyone really think non mountain areas are going to score in late Feb or March? I put the realistic odds at <20% 

I don't think so, either. I'd say <25%. It'll get cold enough just for multiple chilly rain days in late Feb/March. But, no snow other than above 3000ft. 

I could also see us having a rain event Feb 12-14 that ushers in the cold pattern and then we just completely dry out. 

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I really hoped we would score this winter.. a lot of Mets say next winter will be wall to wall torch with another strong la Nina. If we go 3 winters without snow, our subforum might as well merge with the rest of the east coast..

 

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Look at the IMBY stats in my signature. The last five winters (counting this one) have been miserable in Hickory, NC. The previous six were really good. The two before that were horrible. (I can’t go back further because I didn’t live in the same spot prior to that point.) Seems rather cyclical to me for my admittedly few years worth of data.

I’m not sure why a five-year period of below normal snowfall means that our local expectations should drastically change. Five years in the span of eons is less than a blip. Thus, I’m not willing to pronounce permanent change based on that minor amount of evidence. This stretch sucks, but I bet we string together another good run of winters in the near future. We might have to wait a couple more years, though. Who knows?

Maybe we only have to wait another week or so, if the ECMWF is right…

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I just don't know what it will take for us to get a snowstorm. 

I really think it’s this La Niña-ish pattern that’s truly killing us. The cold air transport is completely shut off as long as we have a parade of lows traversing a path from Alberta to New England. I love that we’ve had blocking this winter at times but that’s useless unless you have a high to anchor in. One thing is for sure, the moisture is there. My yard is absolute muck right now, which is hilariously ironic after a fall completely devoid of rain. 

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